Tropical Storm Maria Advisories

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Coredesat

#101 Postby Coredesat » Thu Sep 08, 2005 10:07 pm

Refuse to lose!

The forecast map has 85N on it! :lol:

Image

Absolute overkill. :lol:
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#102 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 08, 2005 10:09 pm

Team Ragnarok wrote:Refuse to lose!

The forecast map has 85N on it! :lol:

Absolute overkill. :lol:


Image

No, 65 N.
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#103 Postby Coredesat » Thu Sep 08, 2005 10:10 pm

I know, but the highest latitude line on the map is 85N. The scale of the map is utter overkill. :lol:
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#104 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 09, 2005 4:14 am

Always looks strange when they do that.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

MARIA CONTINUES TO BE QUITE RESILIENT AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND AN EYE-LIKE
FEATURE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AND ARE NOW UNANIMOUSLY T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT.
EVEN THOUGH MARIA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVE COOLER WATER...THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE STILL IMPLIES A PRIMARILY WARM CORE STRUCTURE.
ACCORDINGLY...MARIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TROPICAL IN NATURE
THROUGH 12 HOURS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THEREAFTER. DURING THE
TRANSITION...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A LARGE AND
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS TO HURRICANE-FORCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. MARIA
SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE POLEWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONG
TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 40.2N 44.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 41.2N 42.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 43.6N 39.6W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 10/1800Z 46.8N 36.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/0600Z 50.4N 34.2W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 12/0600Z 57.1N 28.9W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 13/0600Z 62.0N 24.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 14/0600Z 64.5N 18.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#105 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Sep 09, 2005 6:36 am

Looks like Iceland needs a tropical storm watch pretty soon... :lol:

This just barely misses the farthest-north position forecasted for a storm by the NHC in recent memory (since 2004 for me ;)) -- and it's the second storm to show the 85N latitude line on the forecast graphic.

Karl (2004)
Advisory 24: Myanmar is on the map; direct hit on Iceland
Advisory 27: Look out Norwegian Sea!

For the record, the last NHC public advisory on Karl was at 47.3 N, but Unisys shows it as an extratropical storm all the way up to 65.5 N and 13.5 EAST (crossing the Prime Meridian and hitting Norway).
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#106 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 09, 2005 7:22 am

That is the one I was thinking of. Those maps don't work when systems cross the Greenwich Meridian. It carried on a bit further than that. http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/Analyse_20041001.gif, http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/Analyse_20041002.gif
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#107 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:42 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2005

...MARIA STILL A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST OR ABOUT
655 MILES...1055 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT
860 MILES...1385 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME ACCERLERATION DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND MARIA COULD LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES
...370 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...40.9 N... 42.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#108 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:42 am

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
1500Z FRI SEP 09 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 42.7W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 120SE 120SW 45NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 375SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 42.7W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 43.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.3N 40.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 120SE 120SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.1N 38.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 175SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 48.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 225SW 225NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 52.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 250SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 59.0N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...420NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 65.0N 8.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 42.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#109 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:43 am

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT SHOWS THAT MARIA HAS AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT
50-55 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS THAT ARE
UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE COMES AND GOES ON SATELLITE
PICTURES WITH BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE
CENTER. A COMBINATION OF COOL UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURES AND SSTS
HOLDING STEADY NEAR 24-25C HAS PROBABLY HELD OFF THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OF MARIA LONGER THAN EXPECTED. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS FROM FSU WERE CORRECT YESTERDAY IN DELAYING THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF MARIA AND NOW SUGGEST THIS TRANSITION
SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 988 MB IN ACCORDANCE WITH A PRESSURE FROM BUOY
44901 OF 992.3 MB A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE CENTER OF THE STORM WAS
ABOUT 65 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS
AND CIRA ARE ALSO LOWER THAN 990 MB.

MARIA IS SLOWLY ACCELERATING...NOW MOVING 050/13. THIS ACCELERATION
SHOULD CONTINUE AS MARIA LOSES STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND IS INFLUENCED BY A LARGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD AND CAPTURE THE CYCLONE
IN A DAY OR TWO... WITH FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS LIKELY IN
PLACE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS TO HURRICANE-FORCE. AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM WILL PROBABLY BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW
OVER SCANDINAVIA. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED AT THE INITIAL TIME
USING QUIKSCAT WITH FORECAST RADII USING THE GFS MODEL DURING THE
EXTRATROPICAL STAGE OF MARIA.

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 40.9N 42.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 42.3N 40.7W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 10/1200Z 45.1N 38.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 11/0000Z 48.5N 35.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/1200Z 52.0N 33.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 12/1200Z 59.0N 26.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 13/1200Z 65.0N 8.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 14/1200Z...ABSORBED
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#110 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 09, 2005 10:24 am

MARIA DOESN'T WANT TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL!
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#111 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 10:48 am

HURAKAN wrote:MARIA DOESN'T WANT TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL!


LOL... she was supposed to be extratropical 36 hours ago. :lol:

I can see it now "Tropical Storm hits Northern Europe"
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#112 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:23 am

Brent wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:MARIA DOESN'T WANT TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL!


LOL... she was supposed to be extratropical 36 hours ago. :lol:

I can see it now "Tropical Storm hits Northern Europe"


That would confuse the media over here who believe we were hit by a hurricane in 1987.
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#113 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 3:31 pm

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
2100Z FRI SEP 09 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 41.5W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 120SE 120SW 45NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 375SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 41.5W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 42.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 43.4N 39.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 120SE 120SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 46.7N 37.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 50.5N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...330NE 300SE 225SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 54.5N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 100NW.
34 KT...360NE 300SE 275SW 275NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 60.5N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...175NE 150SE 0SW 175NW.
34 KT...360NE 250SE 200SW 360NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 66.0N 14.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.6N 41.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#114 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 3:31 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2005

...MARIA WEAKENS A LITTLE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST OR ABOUT 675
MILES...1085 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
AND ABOUT 810 MILES...1300 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME ACCELERATION DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AND MARIA WILL LIKELY
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES
...370 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...41.6 N... 41.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#115 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 09, 2005 3:34 pm

MARIA REFUSES TO GIVE IN!
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#116 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 09, 2005 5:17 pm

The bit I have highlighted has been indicated by the Met Office and ECMWF models for several days. Could be a bit breezy in Northern Scotland in a few days.

WTNT44 KNHC 092025
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE EYE STRUCTURE OF MARIA IS
WEAKENING AND BECOMING OPEN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE...IT IS ABOUT
TIME. SATELLITE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS TAKING
ON MORE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF MARIA.
SOUTHWEST SHEAR MAY ALSO BE INCREASING A BIT DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM
TROPICAL STORM NATE. ANY SHORT-TERM WEAKENING SHOULD END WHEN
MID-LATITUDE ENERGY GETS CLOSER TO MARIA OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
BRINGING THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF MARIA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
IN A COUPLE DAYS. CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE
IS GAINING MORE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A SHALLOWER WARM
CORE AND MORE ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THERE ARE NO LARGE CHANGES IN THE INITIAL MOTION... ABOUT 045/13.
STRONGER DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE AFFECTING MARIA
SOON AND CAUSE SOME ACCELERATION. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST TURN IN A DAY OR TWO AS A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM NORTH AMERICA CAPTURES THE CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF PREVIOUS... BRINGING A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF ICELAND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE... THEN PROBABLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A LOW OVER
SCANDINAVIA
.

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 41.6N 41.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 43.4N 39.7W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 10/1800Z 46.7N 37.2W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 11/0600Z 50.5N 35.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/1800Z 54.5N 33.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 12/1800Z 60.5N 27.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 13/1800Z 66.0N 14.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 14/1800Z...ABSORBED
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#117 Postby Coredesat » Fri Sep 09, 2005 6:38 pm

Another Faith? Naaah...
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#118 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
0300Z SAT SEP 10 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 39.8W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 120SE 120SW 45NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 375SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 39.8W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 40.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 44.5N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 120SE 120SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 48.2N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 52.0N 33.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...330NE 300SE 225SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 55.7N 31.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 100NW.
34 KT...360NE 300SE 275SW 275NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 61.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...175NE 150SE 0SW 175NW.
34 KT...360NE 250SE 200SW 360NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 66.0N 9.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.5N 39.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#119 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:40 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2005

...MARIA BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.8 WEST OR ABOUT
715 MILES...1150 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
ABOUT 740 MILES...1195 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON SATURDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES
...370 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...42.5 N... 39.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#120 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY TROUGH AND MOVES OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 HR...BUT CONTINUE AND
EVEN RE-INTENSIFY AS A BAROCLINIC LOW BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY
ANOTHER LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR NEAR OR OVER SCANDINAVIA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/14. MARIA SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD WITH ACCELERATION FOR 72 HR...THEN GRADUALLY TURN
EASTWARD AT HIGH LATITUDE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 42.5N 39.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 44.5N 38.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 11/0000Z 48.2N 35.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 11/1200Z 52.0N 33.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/0000Z 55.7N 31.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 13/0000Z 61.0N 24.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 14/0000Z 66.0N 9.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 15/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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