Tropical Storm Maria Advisories

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#81 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:45 am

WHAT THE???

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 07 2005

...MARIA NOW A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST OR ABOUT 835
MILES...1340 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1320
MILES...2130 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND OTHER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MARIA
IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AND IS NOW A HURRICANE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT MARIA HAS BECOME A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...36.0 N... 50.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
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#82 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:47 am

HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0850Z INDICATES THAT MARIA IS STRONGER THAN
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST ALONE...WITH MANY WIND
VECTORS GREATER THAN HURRICANE FORCE. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR MAKING
MARIA A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN...AND ALSO FOR GREATLY EXPANDING THE
WIND RADII IN THE SHORT-TERM. IT IS HARD TO KNOW WHETHER THIS IS A
TRUE REINTENSIFICATION DUE TO A TROUGH INTERACTION...OR IF MARIA
HAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SUGGESTED BY ITS SATELLITE
APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY EVENT...THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WAS SHEARING THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME INDISTINGUISHABLE
FROM MARIA... POSSIBLY AIDING THE GROWTH OF THE SYSTEM. MARIA IS
BEGINNING TO HAVE A COMMA-LIKE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE PICTURES
WITH THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IMMINENT. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BEFORE IT BECOMES
FULLY EXTRATROPICAL ...THEN CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/12 WITH A SHORTER TERM MOTION CLOSER TO
045/14. MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
CURRENT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
MORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN
THE 2 TO 3 DAY TIMEFRAME AND PULL MARIA MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48
HOURS BUT TO THE LEFT THEREAFTER SINCE THERE IS MORE GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 36.0N 50.9W 70 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 36.8N 49.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 38.2N 47.4W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 09/0000Z 39.8N 45.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 09/1200Z 41.5N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 10/1200Z 46.0N 38.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/1200Z 51.5N 33.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/1200Z 58.0N 30.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#83 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2005 3:30 pm

WTNT44 KNHC 072028
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA
WITH HINTS OF AN EYE TRYING TO REDEVELOP. HOWEVER...SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 70 KT...THOUGH THE CYCLONE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER AS
EVIDENCED BY A RECENT AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 976 MB FROM CIMSS.
THE HURRICANE HAS CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND A SLOW WEAKENING
SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE WEAKENING MIGHT
BE A BIT SLOWER THAN A TYPICAL TROPICAL SYSTEM BECAUSE OF MARIA
SLOWLY ACQUIRING EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL
MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THIS HURRICANE TO BE A LARGE POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

AFTER A BRIEF MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... MARIA HAS RESUMED
A MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR ABOUT 045/12 KT. THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT
NORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH A LITTLE ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DROP WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN THE
2 TO 3 DAY TIMEFRAME AND PULL MARIA MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT A BIT
SLOWER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AND NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 36.9N 50.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 37.9N 49.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 08/1800Z 39.4N 46.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 09/0600Z 40.8N 44.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 09/1800Z 42.5N 42.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 10/1800Z 46.5N 38.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/1800Z 52.0N 33.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/1800Z 58.0N 31.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#84 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 3:31 pm

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
2100Z WED SEP 07 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 50.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 125NW.
34 KT.......150NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..425NE 425SE 325SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 50.4W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 50.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.9N 49.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 39.4N 46.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 40.8N 44.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.5N 42.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 46.5N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 175SW 175NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 52.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 58.0N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.9N 50.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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#85 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 3:35 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED SEP 07 2005

...LARGE HURRICANE MARIA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST OR ABOUT 875
MILES...1410 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1280
MILES...2065 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MARIA
IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TOMORROW.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...36.9 N... 50.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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#86 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:35 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED SEP 07 2005

...MARIA MOVING NORTHESTWARD THROUGH THE OPEN ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO
LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST OR ABOUT 940
MILES...1515 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1220
MILES...1965 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
MARIA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...37.5 N... 49.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#87 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:36 pm

HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA IS AGAIN DECREASING AS THE
HURRICANE INGESTS DEEP-LAYER COOLER AND DRYER AIR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA AT 2106Z....AND A
COMPROMISE OF 45 KT...55 KT...AND 77 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. MARIA SHOULD
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR...BUT IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

MARIA IS MOVING 050/12. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITHOUT
MUCH ACCELERATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 120 HR. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS DONE THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST 36 HR AND ON THE LEFT SIDE AFTER THAT. THE 72-120 HR
PORTION OF THE TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED ON THE BASIS
OF THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 37.5N 49.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 38.6N 47.7W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 09/0000Z 40.2N 45.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 09/1200Z 41.7N 43.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/0000Z 43.2N 41.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/0000Z 47.0N 36.9W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/0000Z 52.0N 31.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0000Z 58.0N 27.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#88 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2005 5:57 am

TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT MARIA IS COMPLETING THE FINAL STAGE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
OVER THE EAST SIDE. A RATHER LARGE REGION OF MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED DEEP CONVECTION STRETCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT...SPREADING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. AN EXTENSIVE...SHARP
EDGED...CIRRUS SHIELD IS EVIDENT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AS THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW INTERACTS WITH A POLAR JET FINGER. BASED ON THE
SATELLITE ANALYSIS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN YESTERDAY MORNING'S MODERATE
RE-INTENSIFICATION WAS INDICATIVE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSFORMATION STAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON
A BLEND OF 45 KT...55 KT...AND 77 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. EVEN THOUGH MARIA IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION IN 24 HOURS...IT IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AS A STRONG LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 050/11. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
INFLUENCE A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA CAUSING MARIA TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
FOLLOWS THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 38.3N 48.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 39.4N 46.9W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 09/0600Z 41.0N 44.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 09/1800Z 42.4N 42.2W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/0600Z 44.2N 39.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/0600Z 48.5N 35.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/0600Z 54.0N 30.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0600Z 59.0N 25.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#89 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 9:39 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 08 2005

...MARIA HANGING ON...REFUSES TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1070
MILES...1725 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1115
MILES...1790 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
MARIA IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.

MARIA REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...39.1 N... 47.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#90 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 9:40 am

HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT MARIA REMAINS A
WELL-ORGANIZED CYCLONE WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. HIGH-RESOLUTION
QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THE WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT... WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS. ALTHOUGH MARIA IS
GAINING SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... INCLUDING AN
EXPANSION OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND A LARGE BROAD WIND
FIELD...THE TRANSITION IS NOT YET COMPLETE. CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS
DIAGRAMS FROM FSU ALSO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS STILL MOSTLY WARM
CORE. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...AND
IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/11. MARIA CONTINUES MOVING
RATHER SLOWLY BECAUSE THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FAR
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. FOR NOW...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE
MARIA ON A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA CAUSING MARIA TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 3 DAYS...BETWEEN THE GFS AND NOGAPS.

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 39.1N 47.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 40.2N 46.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 09/1200Z 41.7N 43.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 10/0000Z 43.3N 41.3W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/1200Z 45.5N 39.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1200Z 51.0N 35.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/1200Z 56.0N 31.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1200Z 61.0N 25.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#91 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 9:42 am

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
1500Z THU SEP 08 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 47.6W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 225SE 175SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 450SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 47.6W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 48.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 40.2N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 175SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 41.7N 43.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.3N 41.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.5N 39.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 170SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 51.0N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 250SW 225NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 56.0N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 61.0N 25.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 47.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#92 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 3:46 pm

HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

DEEP CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA WITH AN
EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. AMSU AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. MARIA HAS RETAINED
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...CUT OFF
FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES... AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS
DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THE SYSTEM COULD POSSIBLY DELAY FULL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FOR A DAY OR SO. AFTER A SLOW WEAKENING
OVER 23-25C WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... THE CYCLONE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY INTO A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH
WINDS OF HURRICANE-FORCE BECAUSE OF ENERGY FROM A BAROCLINIC
TROUGH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...ESTIMATED AT
045/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE LONGER-TERM FORECAST
IS HOW MUCH OF A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE
AN UPPER TROUGH LEAVING SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BETWEEN CONU AND THE GFS SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH
AND...CONSQUENTLY...A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SOUTH OF ICELAND.
WIND RADII FORECASTS ARE BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL.

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 39.5N 46.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 40.5N 45.2W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 09/1800Z 42.0N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 10/0600Z 44.0N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/1800Z 46.0N 38.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1800Z 53.0N 35.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/1800Z 59.0N 32.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1800Z 63.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#93 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 3:46 pm

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
2100Z THU SEP 08 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 46.8W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 225SE 175SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 450SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 46.8W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 47.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 40.5N 45.2W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 44.0N 40.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 100SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 46.0N 38.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 53.0N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...150NE 175SE 150SW 100NW.
34 KT...330NE 275SE 250SW 225NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 59.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 63.0N 27.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 46.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#94 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 3:50 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 08 2005

...MARIA STILL A HURRICANE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES...
950 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 1070
MILES...1720 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND MARIA IS LIKELY TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...39.5 N... 46.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#95 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Sep 08, 2005 3:51 pm

She's like the Energizer Bunny. She keeps going....and going....and going.

-Andrew92
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#96 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 08, 2005 3:52 pm

MARIA IS TOUGH!
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#97 Postby whereverwx » Thu Sep 08, 2005 4:43 pm

NHC wrote:AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THE SYSTEM COULD POSSIBLY DELAY FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FOR A DAY OR SO.

THE CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY INTO A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF HURRICANE-FORCE BECAUSE OF ENERGY FROM A BAROCLINIC TROUGH.



Wow! Maria sure is an oddity!
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#98 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 9:35 pm

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
0300Z FRI SEP 09 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 45.9W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 225SE 175SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 450SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 45.9W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 46.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.7N 44.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.3N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 44.8N 39.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 100SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 47.6N 37.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 55.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...150NE 175SE 150SW 100NW.
34 KT...330NE 275SE 250SW 225NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 60.0N 29.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 64.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.7N 45.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#99 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 9:35 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU SEP 08 2005

...MARIA WEAKENS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC BUT
STILL HAS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.9 WEST OR ABOUT
605 MILES... 970 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT
1020 MILES...1645 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
MARIA WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES
...415 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...39.7 N... 45.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#100 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 9:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AGAIN NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA AND IS
NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EYE-LIKE HOLE IN THE LOW/MID
LEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE. THE CYCLONE IS NOW OVER 25C WATER AND
MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE ALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT THERE WAS NO
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THIS EVENING TO SHOW IF MARIA IS STILL A
HURRICANE. BASED ON THE COOLER WATER AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60 KT. MARIA
SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 36 HR AS IT LOSES TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER COOLER WATER...THEN RE-INTENSIFY AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. MARIA
SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES FOR 24 HR...THEN
TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE TROUGH.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 39.7N 45.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 40.7N 44.4W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 10/0000Z 42.3N 42.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 10/1200Z 44.8N 39.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/0000Z 47.6N 37.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 12/0000Z 55.0N 33.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 13/0000Z 60.0N 29.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 14/0000Z 64.0N 24.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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