Tropical Storm Maria Advisories

[HURAKAN]

My dad and mom names have been in this season.

My mom is named, Maria Eloisa, and my dad, Jose William.

[cycloneye]

With Maria now this is a new record as the most earliest ever by the letter M.

[LAwxrgal]

Dang Maria already?

We're still recovering from her sister.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2005

...MARIA A LITTLE STRONGER...NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST OR ABOUT 850
MILES...1370 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND ABOUT 1125 MILES...1810 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...22.0 N... 50.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$




275
WTNT24 KNHC 022033
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
2100Z FRI SEP 02 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 50.6W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 50.6W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 50.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.3N 52.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 25.5N 53.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.0N 55.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 34.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 36.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 50.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

719
WTNT44 KNHC 022033
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE ITS SATELLITE
PRESENTATION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR BUT THE OUTFLOW
IS EXPANDING PRIMARILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL
THREE AGENCIES ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS. SINCE MARIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...
AND NOW THAT SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS BOTH FORECAST MARIA TO BE A
HURRICANE WITH 85 KNOTS...I AM CONFIDENT IN BRINGING THE WINDS UP A
LITTLE BIT MORE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY WHEN THE GFS DISSIPATES THE
CYCLONE SOON.

IT APPEARS THAT MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES
AT 11 KNOTS...TRAPPED IN BETWEEN A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST AND
THE WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE UPPER-LOW
WEAKENS...MARIA SHOULD TURN MORE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A NEW DEVELOPING
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED INDICATING A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AND
NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 22.0N 50.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 23.3N 52.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 25.5N 53.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 28.0N 54.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 30.0N 55.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 32.5N 56.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 34.0N 57.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 36.0N 58.0W 65 KT

[lester]

Dang Maria already?

We're still recovering from her sister.

and her brother, Dennis

[krysof]

Fortunately Maria's the GOOD ONE unlike her siblings.

[HURAKAN]

"MARIA" WILL SURVIVE FOR THE 2011 EDITION!!!

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Storm Maria Forecast/Advisory Number 7


Statement as of 03:00Z on September 03, 2005



tropical storm center located near 22.4n 51.4w at 03/0300z
position accurate within 45 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 10 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1001 mb
Max sustained winds 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
34 kt....... 60ne 30se 30sw 60nw.
12 ft seas.. 60ne 0se 0sw 60nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 22.4n 51.4w at 03/0300z
at 03/0000z center was located near 22.0n 51.0w

forecast valid 03/1200z 23.7n 52.8w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 20nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 30sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 04/0000z 25.5n 54.1w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 04/1200z 27.5n 55.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 0sw 0nw.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 60sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 05/0000z 29.3n 55.7w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 60sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 06/0000z 32.0n 56.5w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 60sw 60nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 07/0000z 34.0n 57.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.

Outlook valid 08/0000z 36.0n 56.5w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 22.4n 51.4w

next advisory at 03/0900z

forecaster Knabb

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2005

...MARIA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...WELL AWAY FROM LAND...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST OR ABOUT
810 MILES...1305 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1070 MILES...1720 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND MARIA COULD BE VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...22.4 N... 51.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 030832
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005

MARIA IS GENERATING A MASS OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ALTHOUGH JUST HOW FAR NORTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CIRRUS OBSCURING THE
CENTER AND NO RECENT MICROWAVE DATA. THE STORM HAS FAIR CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE. THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/11...UNCERTAIN MAINLY BECAUSE
THE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A FASTER MOTION. MARIA IS BETWEEN THE
LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A COMPLEX DEEP
LAYER TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD MOVE THE STORM
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR AS INDICATED BY ALL THE
TRACK GUIDANCE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS A RANGE OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS OF HOW MARIA WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS LOSES THE STORM...WHILE THE
UKMET MAKES IT LARGE AND STRONGER WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD...AND THE
GFDL RACES IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
AFTER 72 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

MARIA IS DEVELOPING SOME ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND IS FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR FOR 48 HR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE STORM TO 70 KT IN 48 HR AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUALLY
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 23.4N 52.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 24.6N 53.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 26.6N 54.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 55.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 30.2N 56.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 33.0N 57.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 34.5N 57.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 36.0N 56.5W 65 KT

[Thunder44]

Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 9


Statement as of 11:00 am AST on September 03, 2005


...Maria a little stronger...no threat to land...
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 25.1 north...longitude 53.7 west or about
770 miles...1235 km...northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
and about 835 miles...1345 km...southeast of Bermuda.

Maria is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph...95 km/hr
...With higher gusts. Maria could become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles ...185 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.

Repeating the 11 am AST position...25.1 N... 53.7 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 60 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 997 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 031436
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AND ROUND
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. AT 12Z...T-NUMBERS
ONLY SUPPORTED 45 KNOTS...BUT SINCE THEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
HAS IMPROVED AND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS A FEW 50-KNOT WIND
VECTORS. THEREFORE...NITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50
KNOTS. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WARM WATERS FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AWAY FROM THE
UPPER-LOW ...AND STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE MODEST INTENSIFICATION SUGGESTED BY SHIPS AND THE
AGGRESSIVE GFDL WHICH BRINGS MARIA TO 100 KNOTS IN ABOUT 36
HOURS.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE FASTER...ABOUT 13
KNOTS...BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE
CYCLONE...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
PERSISTENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MARIA ON A NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...MARIA SHOULD ALREADY BE APPROACHING THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND HAS CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT MARIA NORTHWESTWARD AND
NORTHWARD.

A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT 12-FOOT SEAS ARE EXTENDING
OUTWARD MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND THE RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 25.1N 53.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 55.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 56.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 30.5N 57.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 32.0N 57.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 34.5N 57.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 36.5N 57.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 38.0N 52.9W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

690
WTNT24 KNHC 032036
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
2100Z SAT SEP 03 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 54.8W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 275SE 200SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 54.8W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 54.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 27.8N 56.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 32.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 34.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 39.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 41.0N 48.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 54.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

[cycloneye]

TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005

THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. THE
CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE
OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND LASTEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS
THAT MARIA IS DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE
BEEN AVERAGING AROUND 4.2 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND A
WARM OCEAN IS AHEAD OF MARIA...AND I CAN NOT IGNORE THE SHIPS...THE
GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH BRING THE MARIA TO NEAR
100 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MARIA TO
REACH AT LEAST 90 KNOTS AND THEN SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 3
DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION APPROACHES COOLER WATERS.

MARIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.
MARIA SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
MOTION IS CONTROLLED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE CYCLONE...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST SINCE ALL MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. ONCE MARIA REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF
A TROUGH IT SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE SPEED OF THE CYCLONE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE ALL MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THERE IS A
LARGE VARIATION IN THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AMONG
MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 26.1N 54.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 27.8N 56.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 30.0N 57.0W 80 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 57.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 34.0N 58.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 36.0N 57.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 39.0N 53.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 41.0N 48.1W 65 KT

[HURAKAN]

GO MARIA!!!

[Brent]

GO MARIA!!!

Might as well get the numbers up since it's a fish.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Go Maria go!!! Wahoo!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep... dosn't matter on it's strength as long as it remains over open waters from birth to death and the extratropical transition...

Has very good outflow now on imagery... it has really improved and strengthened throughout the day.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Maria is the hurricane-like swirl in the upper left-hand corner of both the visible and infra-red images.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the 5PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center, since cycloneye didn't post it.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 032037
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2005

...MARIA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.8 WEST OR ABOUT 760 MILES
...1225 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
740 MILES...1190 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT
OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...26.1 N... 54.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$