Tropical Storm Maria Advisories

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#61 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2005 9:38 pm


896
WTNT24 KNHC 050237
TCMAT4
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
0300Z MON SEP 05 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 56.9W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 56.9W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 56.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.4N 57.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.9N 56.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.4N 55.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 36.7N 54.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 39.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 41.5N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 44.0N 38.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 56.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#62 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2005 9:40 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2005

...MARIA HEADING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... WILL PASS WELL EAST OF
BERMUDA BUT POSES A HAZARD FOR SHIPPING...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST OR ABOUT 475
MILES... 760 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH... 20 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH... 140 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES... 185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...31.0 N... 56.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#63 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2005 10:01 pm

TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MARIA HAS BEEN EVIDENT THIS
EVENING... AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE
T4.5/77 KT... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. MARIA STILL
HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WHILE THE HURRICANE REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
WIND SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AS MARIA MOVES FARTHER NORTH SHOULD INCREASE
THE SHEAR AND BRING ON GRADUAL WEAKENING... UNTIL THE HURRICANE
REACHES COOLER WATERS AND LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/11... WHICH IS JUST A BIT TO THE
LEFT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY. THIS ESTIMATE IS
BASED ON A COUPLE OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS... ON CONTINUITY... AND ON FOLLOWING THE CENTROID OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION IN GOES IR IMAGERY SINCE AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN
CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE SINCE JUST BEFORE SUNSET. IT ALSO SEEMS THAT
VERY RECENTLY MARIA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE SLOWLY... SO THE ADVISORY
POSITION COULD BE A FEW MILES TOO FAST. EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT BE
STARTING A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED... A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SHOULD OCCUR AS MARIA GRADUALLY BENDS TO THE NORTH AROUND
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.
THEREAFTER... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MARIA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED AFTER MARIA EMERGES OVER MUCH
COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MARIA COULD REMAIN A FAIRLY VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 31.0N 56.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 32.4N 57.1W 80 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 33.9N 56.7W 85 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 35.4N 55.8W 80 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 36.7N 54.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 39.0N 50.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 41.5N 45.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/0000Z 44.0N 38.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


P.K you better watch this closely.
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#64 Postby P.K. » Mon Sep 05, 2005 5:42 am

cycloneye wrote:P.K you better watch this closely.


Going by the latest Met Office charts it should start to fill before it gets here. The question is how strong the high that is forecasted to over the UK will be. Looks we could have the remnants of Katrina passing over first. (Currently just off the west coast of Greenland)

WTNT44 KNHC 050837
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

MARIA'S CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE EYE HAS ALSO BECOME MUCH MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED
AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTH TAFB AND SAB CAME IN WITH AN
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77KT...AND RAW ODT NUMBERS ARE NOW AS
HIGH AS T4.9/87 KT. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS BEING
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/09. MARIA BRIEFLY SLOWED TO ABOUT
5 KT BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z...BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED OF 9 KT AS IT NEARS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MARIA
IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...
AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN 24
HOURS. BY 48-72 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MARIA RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER WATER WHERE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STRETCHED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST...BUT AN
OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONE APPEARS TO BE
FORMING TO THE NORTH. THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. BY 36 HOURS...THOUGH
...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE STEADY
WEAKENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO OR MERGES WITH A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 31.3N 57.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 32.7N 57.0W 85 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 34.4N 56.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 36.0N 54.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 37.3N 52.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 39.3N 49.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 41.5N 43.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/0600Z 44.5N 36.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#65 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:30 am

WTNT34 KNHC 051429
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON SEP 05 2005

...MARIA'S WINDS NOW NEAR 100 MPH...NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.7 WEST OR ABOUT 475
MILES... 765 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...31.8 N... 56.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH
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#66 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:32 am

222
WTNT44 KNHC 051429
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE
STILL 4.5 AT 12Z...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT SINCE THEN...
WITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC RING OF SURROUNDING COLD CLOUD TOPS.
RECENT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE NEAR 4.8...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 85 KT. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
EVIDENT...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR STARTS
TO INFLUENCE MARIA...WITHIN 1-2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN SHOWN
BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE PERIOD...AFTER MARIA MOVES
NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE...THE GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH A
BAROCLINIC ZONE. MARIA IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ITS EXTRATROPICAL
REMNANT WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE FOR A WHILE.

MARIA HAS SLOWED WHILE TURNING TO THE NORTH...AND THE CURRENT MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 360/7. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
HURRICANE...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MARIA
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PICK UP THE CYCLONE...THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
ACCELERATION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLIGHTLY LEFT OT
THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 31.8N 56.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 33.0N 56.5W 90 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 34.4N 55.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 35.8N 54.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 37.0N 52.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 42.0N 41.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/1200Z 46.0N 33.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#67 Postby f5 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:23 pm

Since Katrina is over greenland they are probably seeing 100 inches of snow which translates to 10 inches of rain along with Hurricane force winds although she is a cold core system by now.
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#68 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:39 pm


109
WTNT44 KNHC 052038
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

THE HURRICANE HAS INTENSIFIED A LITTLE MORE DURING THE DAY. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB NOW GIVE A WIND SPEED OF 90
KT. AN EXCELLENT TRMM OVERPASS FROM 1556Z SHOWED THAT A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL STRUCTURE WAS DEVELOPING....SO THE STRENGTH WILL PROBABLY
FLUCTUATE UP OR DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT
TIME...A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST...WHICH
IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. BY 4 DAYS OR
SOONER...GLOBAL MODEL SIMULATIONS SHOW MARIA TRANSFORMING INTO A
LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM. THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED SOMEWHAT AT 4 AND 5 DAYS AND THIS IS PROBABLY A
CONSERVATIVE FORECAST.

MARIA IS MOVING NORTHWARD...360/8. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER ADVISORIES. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
TRACK FORECAST IN THIS ADVISORY IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 32.6N 56.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 33.6N 56.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 34.9N 55.0W 90 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 36.3N 53.4W 85 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 37.4N 51.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 40.0N 46.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 43.0N 39.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/1800Z 48.0N 33.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#69 Postby P.K. » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:20 pm

f5 wrote:Since Katrina is over greenland they are probably seeing 100 inches of snow which translates to 10 inches of rain along with Hurricane force winds although she is a cold core system by now.


The wind won't be anywhere near hurricane strength there looking at the latest Met Office charts.
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#70 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:40 pm

060239
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON SEP 05 2005

...MARIA NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...
...REMAINS FAR FROM LAND BUT A HAZARD TO SHIPPING...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 485
MILES... 780 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...32.9 N... 56.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#71 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:01 pm

:hoola: :woo:

GO MARIA!!!
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Anonymous

#72 Postby Anonymous » Tue Sep 06, 2005 3:42 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 060825
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE SEP 06 2005

...MARIA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST OR ABOUT 495 MILES...
795 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
OR ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...MARIA SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND ONLY BE A THREAT TO SHIPPING
INTERESTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...33.3 N... 56.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
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#73 Postby P.K. » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:18 am

Looks to be deepening before it reaches over here on the Met Office charts to at least 980hPa.

WTNT44 KNHC 060900
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

IT APPEARS THAT MARIA PEAKED IN INTENSITY ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO. THE NOW
IS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE RAGGED AND OPEN TO THE WEST...AND CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS
NOW ENTERING THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY CURRENT
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

MARIA IS MOVING AT 020/06. THE NARROW RIDGE MID-LEVEL TO NORTH OF
MARIA IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY MOVE A LITTLE FASTER.
BEYOND 24 HOURS...AND APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO LIFT OUT MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND
RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER BY 72 HOURS.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT HIGH-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS.

DRY AIR...COOLER WATER...AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
30 KT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY TAKE ITS TOLL ON HURRICANE MARIA.
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL 72 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME
INCREASED BAROCLINIC EFFECTS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A NEARLY
STEADY INTENSITY FOR THEN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 33.3N 56.4W 90 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 34.2N 55.5W 80 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 35.6N 53.9W 70 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 36.9N 52.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 38.2N 49.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 41.0N 44.3W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 10/0600Z 45.0N 38.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 11/0600Z 50.0N 31.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#74 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:33 am

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
1500Z TUE SEP 06 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 55.6W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 55.6W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 55.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.5N 54.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.9N 52.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 37.4N 50.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 38.8N 48.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 41.5N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 45.5N 36.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 51.0N 29.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 55.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH
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#75 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:34 am

Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 21


Statement as of 11:00 am AST on September 06, 2005


...Maria gradually weakening as it heads northeastward...
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 33.8 north... longitude 55.6 west or about 545
miles... 875 km... east-northeast of Bermuda.
Maria is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph ...11 km/hr...and
some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb...28.79 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...33.8 N... 55.6 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 975 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

Forecaster Pasch

$$

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#76 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:42 am

HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

MARIA HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS MORNING. AN EYE IS NO LONGER
EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
AN EROSION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
HURRICANE...INDICATIVE OF A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR.
SINCE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER MARIA...AND
THE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GETTING ANY WARMER...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...MARIA IS
PREDICTED TO TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG BAROCLINIC CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
MAINTAINING ITS IDENTITY THROUGH 5 DAYS.

THE TRACK HAS BENT TO THE RIGHT SOMEWHAT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 045/6. THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD HIGHER
LATITUDES...THE STEERING CURRENT INCREASES. THEREFORE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...ON A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD
HEADING...IS CALLED FOR. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 33.8N 55.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 34.5N 54.6W 75 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 35.9N 52.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 37.4N 50.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 38.8N 48.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 41.5N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 10/1200Z 45.5N 36.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 11/1200Z 51.0N 29.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#77 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 06, 2005 3:39 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2005

...MARIA SLOWLY WEAKENING WHILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.1 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES...
930 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...34.3 N... 55.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH
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#78 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Sep 06, 2005 4:04 pm

Here is the latest forecast/advisory on Hurricane Maria from the National Hurricane Center...

000
WTNT24 KNHC 062027
TCMAT4
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
2100Z TUE SEP 06 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 55.1W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 55.1W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 55.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.1N 53.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.8N 50.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 39.3N 48.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.5N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 46.0N 37.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 51.0N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 55.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH


$$
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#79 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2005

...MARIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST OR ABOUT
635 MILES...1020 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...34.7 N... 54.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#80 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:37 pm

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
0300Z WED SEP 07 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 54.2W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 54.2W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 54.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.7N 52.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 37.1N 51.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 38.5N 48.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 40.1N 46.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 49.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 53.5N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 54.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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