Hurricane Nate,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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cycloneye
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#61 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:11 pm

TROPICAL STORM NATE
FLIGHT ONE
A. 08/0600Z,1200Z D. 30.0N 67.5W
B. AFXXX 0115A NATE E. 08/0430Z TO 08/1230Z
C. 08/0200Z F. SFC TO 10,000FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIXES ON
TS NATE AS LONG AS IT IS A THREAT TO BERMUDA



Interesting that apart from the missions to TD16/Ophelia they will go further into the Atlantic but with Bermuda in the track they have to go.
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#62 Postby Hyperstorm » Wed Sep 07, 2005 8:09 am

I think Nate has been a hurricane since last evening when TAFB gave it a T-number of 4.0. It's obvious the system is strengthening right now and an eye is trying to pop out. If Air Force Recon were in the storm, it would likely find 80-85 mph winds already. The system is likely to gain more strength during the next 24 hours before it reaches Bermuda. It's possible it reaches Category 2 strength late tonight or tomorrow.

Bermuda...
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#63 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:47 am

Shouldn't Nate have his bags packed and be headed for the maritimes by now? This is getting a bit intetesting here. Need to give it some more time but He's still stationary/drifting. Let's see what the next model runs bring. I have a theroy, but I could be way out there. Need more data to see if it play out. Let's just say it's not a sudden right turn and speed up. NOT saying landfall either or left turn.
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#64 Postby cjrciadt » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:51 am

Image
The models say his moves NE even faster someday.
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#65 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Sep 07, 2005 10:35 am

Maybe not, let see when they get some new data inputs could hang in there little while longer. Gonna be watching that ridge between Nate and Ophelia. My thery is that if it hangs in there both systems will pump it up and provide steering around it. Nate coudl move back SW around it and Ophelia N

Image
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#66 Postby clueless newbie » Wed Sep 07, 2005 11:48 am

Looks like after forming the eye/consolidating inner structure, Nate has entered bombing phase...

Could it become the next major?

When is the recond due there?
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#67 Postby Jim Cantore » Wed Sep 07, 2005 11:57 am

Make that Hurricane Nate
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#68 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2005 1:13 pm

TPNT KGWC 071805
A. HURRICANE NATE
B. 07/1731Z (81)
C. 29.1N/2
D. 65.9W/0
E. TWO/GOES12
F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS -07/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

07A/ PBO SM EYE/ANMTN. 25 NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY 30 NM
MG RNG YIELDING DT OF 4.5. FT BASED ON DT. PT AGREES. MET
YIELDS 4.0.

AODT: T5.2 (CLEAR EYE)

JACOBSEN/HEATH


Air Force T numbers.
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#69 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Sep 07, 2005 2:35 pm

The Close in visible show that Nate is developing a very large eye. With convection developing around it. When that clears it is going to look kind of like Katrina.
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