Tropical Storm Nate Advisories

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#61 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 3:31 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...NATE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
270 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS A HURRICANE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#62 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 3:33 pm

HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
2100Z THU SEP 08 2005

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 62.0W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 62.0W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 62.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 35.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 37.0N 46.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 41.0N 35.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 62.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA
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#63 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 3:37 pm

HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

THE EYE HAS BEEN INTTERMMITTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND
THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERAFTER...NATE SHOULD BEGIN
TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT
MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED
BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATINGLY AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ABOUT 14 KNOTS....WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LATITUDE FLOW. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT NATE WILL CONTINUE WITH
THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 31.8N 62.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 33.0N 60.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 35.0N 55.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 36.0N 51.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 37.0N 46.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 41.0N 35.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW
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#64 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...NATE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND ACCELERATING INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...
440 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...33.0 N... 60.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
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#65 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 9:37 pm

HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NATE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A
WELL-ORGANIZED AND IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS. IN FACT...THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB IMPLIES SOME STRENGTHENING. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 4.5...OR 77 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. MORE RECENTLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BEGUN TO SHOW THE TELL-TALE SIGNS OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING RESTRICTED TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...A
RECENT SSMI PASS SHOWED VERY DRY AIR JUST NORTH OF NATE. IN LIGHT
OF THIS...NATE IS LIKELY PEAKING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. NATE SHOULD ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH
LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER. LACKING SIGNIFICANT
BAROCLINIC SUPPORT...NATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AFTER
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE.

NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OR 060/18. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK QUICKLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY...
NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 33.0N 60.2W 80 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 34.3N 57.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 35.3N 52.6W 70 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 36.2N 47.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 37.3N 43.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 44.0N 32.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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#66 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 9:37 pm

HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
0300Z FRI SEP 09 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 60.2W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 200SE 150SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 60.2W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 61.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 34.3N 57.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.3N 52.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 36.2N 47.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 37.3N 43.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 75SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 44.0N 32.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 60.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
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#67 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 09, 2005 4:21 am

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NATE HAS RAPIDLY DEGENERATED.
WHILE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 5.0 AND 4.5 FROM
TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...THESE NUMBERS ARE BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.
GIVEN THE RAPID DECAY OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THE LATEST
UW-CIMSS RAW AODT VALUE OF 4.3 IS USED FOR THE BASIS OF THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70 KT. NATE NOW APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND PERHAPS SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION
WHICH HAS PROVIDED A ONE-TWO PUNCH. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE SO FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST NOW WEAKENS NATE MORE QUICKLY THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND BRINGS NATE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...NATE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL A
LITTLE QUICKER. LACKING SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC SUPPORT...NATE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE.

NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OR 065/19. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY...
NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 33.6N 58.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 34.3N 55.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 35.1N 50.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 36.1N 44.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 37.3N 40.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 45.1N 30.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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#68 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:41 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

...NATE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
WATERS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST OR ABOUT 605
MILES... 975 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH
...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES
...390 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...34.3 N... 54.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
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#69 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:41 am

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
1500Z FRI SEP 09 2005


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 54.6W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 90SW 45NW.
34 KT.......150NE 210SE 180SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 54.6W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 55.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.1N 50.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 180SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 35.8N 46.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 36.8N 41.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...125NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 39.1N 37.1W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...125NE 175SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 47.0N 27.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...125NE 175SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 54.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
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#70 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:42 am

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NATE ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW NATE WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AS A RESULT OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.5...4.0...AND 4.0 FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC RESPECTIVELY...BASED PRIMARILY ON CONSTRAINTS
OF THE TECHNIQUE. DUE TO THE DEGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES CONTINUING TO LOWER...NATE HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. NATE REMAINS INFLUENCED BY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER CIRCULATION. NATE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070/21. NATE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN TWO OR
THREE DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SOON AFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 34.3N 54.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 35.1N 50.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 35.8N 46.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 36.8N 41.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 39.1N 37.1W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 12/1200Z 47.0N 27.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 13/1200Z...ABSORBED
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#71 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 3:33 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

...NATE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST OR ABOUT 750
MILES...1210 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1410
MILES...2265 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES
...390 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 52.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#72 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 3:35 pm

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
2100Z FRI SEP 09 2005


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 52.1W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 90SW 45NW.
34 KT.......150NE 210SE 180SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 52.1W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 53.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 35.3N 48.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 140SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 36.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...125NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 37.5N 39.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 40.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 175SE 125SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 50.0N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...125NE 225SE 75SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 52.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#73 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 3:35 pm

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

A COMBINATION OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
AIR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN NATE. ALL OF THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION
IS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE WITH AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE FALLING AS QUICKLY
AS THE RULES ALLOW AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 55
KT....WHICH COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE
HIGH... MOSTLY 25 KT OR GREATER... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...NATE WILL
BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...ACCELERATING THE
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND 36 HOURS.

NATE IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 075/21. THE
CYCLONE EXPECTED TO WHIP AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF MARIA FOR ABOUT
36 HOURS... THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS MODEL
KEEPS NATE SEPARATE FROM THE TROUGH FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS BEFORE
BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE LARGER CIRCULATION... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 34.8N 52.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 35.3N 48.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 36.0N 44.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 37.5N 39.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/1800Z 40.5N 35.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 12/1800Z 50.0N 26.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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#74 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:41 pm

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
0300Z SAT SEP 10 2005


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 49.6W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 90SW 45NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 49.6W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 50.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 35.2N 45.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 36.1N 41.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 125SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 38.3N 37.1W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 125SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 42.2N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 125SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 49.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
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#75 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:47 pm

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

ALL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NATE HAS DISSIPATED AND THE
CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS ONLY OF A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE RAPID
DEMISE OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...32 KT AS MEASURED BY UW-CIMSS
SATELLITE WINDS...AND DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW BASED ENTIRELY ON CONSTRAINTS AND
CURRENTLY VARY FROM 35 KT TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT
IS BASED ON A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS OVER THE CYCLONE AND A
CIRA/NESDIS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 52 KT. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WITHIN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS CURRENTLY OVER SUB 26C
SST. THUS NATE SHOULD WEAKEN AT A MODERATE RATE. NATE WILL BEGIN
TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND 36 HOURS...BUT
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.

NOW THAT NATE IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS BEING STEERED A LITTLE
MORE EASTWARD OR APPROXIMATELY 085/21. SINCE THE RAPID DEGRADATION
OF THE CONVECTION BEGINNING YESTERDAY...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON THIS AND THE
ALMOST DUE EASTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS BASICALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE. NATE WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
DAYS RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 34.8N 49.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 35.2N 45.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 36.1N 41.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 38.3N 37.1W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/0000Z 42.2N 33.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 13/0000Z...ABSORBED
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#76 Postby TampaFl » Sat Sep 10, 2005 4:26 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 100846
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

...NATE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST OR ABOUT 975
MILES...1570 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1190
MILES...1915 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES
...335 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 48.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB


$$
Last edited by TampaFl on Sat Sep 10, 2005 4:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#77 Postby TampaFl » Sat Sep 10, 2005 4:28 am

000
WTNT25 KNHC 100851
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
0900Z SAT SEP 10 2005


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 48.1W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 48.1W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 49.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 34.8N 45.3W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 35.5N 41.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 125SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 37.2N 36.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 41.5N 31.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 48.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB


$$
Last edited by TampaFl on Sat Sep 10, 2005 4:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#78 Postby TampaFl » Sat Sep 10, 2005 4:29 am

000
WTNT45 KNHC 100846
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

NATE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS AND
APPEARS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BEING CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW. IF
NATE DOES NOT PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION SOON...IT WILL NO LONGER MEET
THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES...BASED SOLELY ON CONSTRAINTS...ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
35 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON A
NEARBY SHIP WCZ8589 WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDING VALUABLE INFORMATION
REGARDING THE WIND AND SEAS RADII DURING THE LAST TWO ADVISORIES.
LACKING THE NECESSARY CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS...THE
REMNANT LOW OF NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM FROM THE EVOLUTION OF MARIA INTO A LARGE AND
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. NONETHELESS...THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS TO GALE FORCE
AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.

NATE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED DUE EASTWARD BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
BEFORE AT 090/15. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
MAINTAINING NATE AS A MEDIUM TO DEEP FEATURE THUS ACCOUNTING FOR
THEIR POLEWARD TRACK BIAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD BASICALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS-BASED BAMS TRAJECTORY
MODEL. NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM OVERTAKES IT
FROM THE WEST.

FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 34.8N 48.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 34.8N 45.3W 40 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 11/0600Z 35.5N 41.0W 40 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 11/1800Z 37.2N 36.5W 35 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 12/0600Z 41.5N 31.8W 35 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 13/0600Z...ABSORBED


$$
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#79 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2005 9:46 am

515
WTNT25 KNHC 101444
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
1500Z SAT SEP 10 2005


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 44.8W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 175SE 175SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 44.8W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 45.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 35.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 175SE 175SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 36.5N 37.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...125NE 200SE 125SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 200SE 45SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 44.0N 28.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 250SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 44.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


The last advisorie
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#80 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2005 9:57 am

636
WTNT45 KNHC 101454
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING WAS VERY REVEALING ON THE LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE OF NATE. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS... ABOUT 90 NM... IN COMBINATION WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WIND
DISTRIBUTION. IN ADDITION... SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT NATE
CONTINUES TO HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR. THEREFORE NATE IS BEING DECLARED AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE...THOUGH IT HAS A FEW CHARACTERISTICS OF A REMNANT LOW AS
WELL. QUIKSCAT SHOWED WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT SO THIS WILL BE
IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY. NO SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.

NATE CONTINUES TO ZIP ALONG TO THE EAST... ABOUT 085/20. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE... WITH NATE BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM. A GRADUAL BEND TO
A NORTHEAST TRACK SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT SHOULD ABSORB THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTERN AZORES COULD RECEIVE GALE-FORCE
WINDS WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF NATE. THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON NATE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 34.6N 44.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 11/0000Z 35.0N 41.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 11/1200Z 36.5N 37.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 12/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/1200Z 44.0N 28.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 13/1200Z...ABSORBED


See you Nate in 2011.
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