Tropical Storm Nate Advisories

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#41 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:32 am

HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
1500Z WED SEP 07 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 66.2W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 66.2W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 66.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.5N 66.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 30.4N 65.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.6N 63.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.1N 59.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 36.0N 50.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 39.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 43.0N 29.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 66.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH
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#42 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:33 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...NATE NOW A HURRICANE...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...
370 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
BERMUDA TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...29.2 N... 66.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
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#43 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:58 am

HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RAGGED EYE THIS
MORNING...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVERAGE ABOUT 70 KT.
THEREFORE...NATE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY. THE
SYSTEM HAS FAIRLY WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...AND SOME
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE VERTICAL SHEAR
BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY STRONG. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
ABOVE THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON
QUIKSCAT DATA.

INITIAL MOTION IS NOT DEFINITIVE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN
TURNING NATE TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON
THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER...
THIS IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...NATE COULD STILL MOVE VERY NEAR
OVER BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THAT ISLAND.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 29.2N 66.2W 70 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 29.5N 66.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 30.4N 65.2W 80 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 31.6N 63.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 33.1N 59.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 36.0N 50.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/1200Z 39.0N 40.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/1200Z 43.0N 29.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#44 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2005 12:49 pm

WTNT35 KNHC 071743
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...NATE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SLOWLY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES...
345 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND A SLOW NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
BERMUDA TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...29.94 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...29.4 N... 66.0 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
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#45 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 3:39 pm

HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
2100Z WED SEP 07 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 65.8W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 65.8W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 66.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.1N 65.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 31.2N 63.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 34.2N 57.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 37.0N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 41.0N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 45.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 65.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#46 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 3:40 pm

HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KT BASED ON THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...WITH ODT ESTIMATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
REACH THE HURRICANE AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. NATE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A
RAGGED CLOUD-FILLED EYE UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAND OF STRONG
WESTERLIES IS APPROACHING NATE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS FLOW MAY
BEGIN TO RESTRICT AND/OR UNDERCUT THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SHEAR
BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE GFS FORECASTS THAT NATE WILL BECOME
ABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA WITHIN ABOUT 72
HOURS...BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE HURRICANE IS WOBBLING AT 035/4. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR TRACK. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS WEAKENING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY
AND HELP TO ESTABLISH A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST KEEPS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE
SOUTH OF BERMUDA...HOWEVER...SHOULD NATE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH
THAN EXPECTED...A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE WARNING MIGHT BE REQUIRED
OVERNIGHT.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 29.5N 65.8W 75 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 30.1N 65.3W 80 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 31.2N 63.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 32.5N 61.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 34.2N 57.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 37.0N 47.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/1800Z 41.0N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/1800Z 45.0N 24.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#47 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 3:43 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...NATE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...
325 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR. A SLOW
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO
BERMUDA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES IN BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.5 N... 65.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#48 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2005 3:45 pm

Oh my gosh Brent you are very faster than me posting the advisories. :)
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#49 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 3:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:Oh my gosh Brent you are very faster than me posting the advisories. :)


LOL!

It was the only one left to wait on, so I was hitting refresh every second. :lol:
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#50 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 6:54 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...NATE MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
NEAR BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR. A SLOW
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO
BERMUDA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES IN BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...29.6 N... 65.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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#51 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:35 pm

HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
0300Z THU SEP 08 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 65.4W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 65.4W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 65.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 30.6N 64.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.9N 62.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.4N 58.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.1N 54.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 38.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 42.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 46.0N 21.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 65.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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#52 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:37 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...HURRICANE NATE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING SOUTH OF BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR. A SLOW
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO
BERMUDA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...29.8 N... 65.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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#53 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:41 pm

HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A 20 NM...RAGGED EYE WHICH
APPEARS TO BE OPEN ON THE EAST SIDE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
DRY AIR IS BEING PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
REACH THE HURRICANE AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION EXISTS BEFORE THE UPPER WESTERLIES
MOVE OVER THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST.

INITIAL MOTION IS 040/5. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
MID-LATITUDE FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO ESTABLISH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST GFS RUN SUGGESTS THAT NATE WILL
BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA WITHIN ABOUT 60
HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET INDICATES BINARY INTERACTION WITH MARIA
NEAR DAY 4...ULTIMATELY MERGING INTO A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL
SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST KEEPS
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA...HOWEVER...SHOULD
NATE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EXPECTED...A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE
WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.


FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 29.8N 65.4W 75 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 30.6N 64.5W 80 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 31.9N 62.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 33.4N 58.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 35.1N 54.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 38.0N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/0000Z 42.0N 32.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0000Z 46.0N 21.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#54 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 1:01 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...HURRICANE NATE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING SOUTH OF BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
275 KM... SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH ... 13 KM/HR.
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED... IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE IS
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA LATER THIS
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...29.8 N... 64.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#55 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Sep 08, 2005 4:09 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 080847
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...HURRICANE NATE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF BERMUDA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...
235 KM... SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE IS
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA...AND WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLAND LATER TODAY DAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM. A WIND GUST TO 43 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
ON BERMUDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...30.2 N... 64.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#56 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:51 am

081143
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...BERMUDA ESCAPES FROM THE CORE OF HURRICANE NATE...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM BERMUDA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...30.5 N... 64.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#57 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 9:24 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...NATE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH NATE
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...30.9 N... 63.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#58 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 9:25 am

HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
1500Z THU SEP 08 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 63.2W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 63.2W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 63.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 32.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 36.5N 47.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 39.5N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 44.0N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 50.0N 17.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 63.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA
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#59 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 9:27 am

HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

NATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A RAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THERE IS ALSO A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO
THE EAST. THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH AND
IT IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT NATE SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS
IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT NATE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 30.9N 63.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 32.0N 61.0W 75 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 33.5N 57.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 35.0N 52.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 36.5N 47.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 39.5N 36.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/1200Z 44.0N 26.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1200Z 50.0N 17.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#60 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 08, 2005 12:44 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...NATE CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH NATE
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...31.4 N... 62.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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