Tropical Storm Nate Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Matt-hurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11649
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Portland,OR
Contact:

#21 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:37 pm

This year at this rate will beat 1933 in 1995!!!
0 likes   

Anonymous

#22 Postby Anonymous » Tue Sep 06, 2005 3:42 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 060829
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...NATE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS SOUTH OF BERMUDA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 275
MILES... 445 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MEANDERING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE A SLOW
WESTWARD DRIFT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 66.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114519
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#23 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:12 am

285
WTNT45 KNHC 060848
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

A PLETHORA OF SATELLITE MICROWAVE DATA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
INDICATES NATE HAD BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CENTER IS UNDERNEATH THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS...DUE TO SOME NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
LAYER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM
SAB...AND THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES NOTED IN THE
MICROWAVE DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/02...BUT THE CYCLONE COULD EASILY
BE QUASI-STATIONARY. NATE IS TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW
PATTERN BETWEEN HURRICANE MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND COMPLETELY ERODES THE
RIDGE AND LIFTS OUT NATE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST TRACK HAD
TO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
TWO ADVISORIES WERE INDICATING. THE CAUSE FOR THE FASTER MOTION IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE MODELS NOW INITIALIZING AND MAINTAINING A MORE
VERTICALLY DEEP AND STRONGER SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS.
THIS FASTER MOTION NOW PLACES BERMUDA UNDER THE THREAT OF POSSIBLE
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE OR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

NATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
SSTS OF 29C FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WITH SUCH A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL
INNER CORE WIND FIELD...THESE CONDITIONS WOULD USUALLY FAVOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER MAY RESULT IN SOME SHEAR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AS A RESULT...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING AT A TYPICAL RATE OF
20 KT PER 24 HOURS IS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...
INCREASING WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD CAP THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS AND INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 28.6N 66.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 28.7N 67.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 29.0N 67.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 29.4N 68.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 30.3N 68.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 32.0N 66.8W 65 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 34.0N 62.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 38.5N 52.0W 55 KT



Posted the discussion as it's always interesting to read what Stacey Stewart has to say.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114519
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#24 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:25 am

P.K Nate can go up your way so watch it too.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

HenkL
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2398
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
Contact:

#25 Postby HenkL » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:37 am

ECMWF is showing remnants of both Maria and Nate for next week.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#26 Postby P.K. » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:37 am

Doesn't look quite as significant as Maria though http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//ukm/2005090600//slp24.png. As always I will keep a close eye on it.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114519
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#27 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:50 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...NATE A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING LITTLE...
...INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 275
MILES... 440 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 66.7 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$




168
WTNT25 KNHC 061449
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
1500Z TUE SEP 06 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 66.7W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 66.7W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 66.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.8N 66.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.0N 67.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 30.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 32.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 37.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 42.5N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 66.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 32894
Age: 30
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

#28 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:54 am

Right over Bermuda:

Image
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1480
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

#29 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:57 am

Image
they all agree within a tight distance :eek: :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#30 Postby Windy » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:02 am

Wow. It's gonna be one wet week for the UK next week.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114519
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#31 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:03 am

WTNT45 KNHC 061502
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
NATE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF
THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SO NATE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL
TRENDS.

NATE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SO LITTLE MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NATE SHOULD
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A HIGH DEVELOPS EAST OF NATE. BEYOND 48
HOURS...NATE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST OR
WEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH. NATE SHOULD
THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.

IT APPEARS THAT BERMUDA WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST PATH OF NATE.
THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 28.7N 66.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 28.8N 66.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 67.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 29.5N 67.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 30.5N 67.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 32.5N 64.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 37.0N 53.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 42.5N 41.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#32 Postby P.K. » Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:22 am

Windy wrote:Wow. It's gonna be one wet week for the UK next week.


Possibly, a couple of the GFS runs have shown a lot of rain over SE England. See http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png This one doesn't look as strong as Maria when it gets over here.

Katrina is still around as well http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/anabwkna.gif

Anyway back to Nate now.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 32894
Age: 30
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

#33 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 06, 2005 3:38 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...NATE NEARLY STATIONARY...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 275
MILES... 440 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS STATIONARY. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 66.7 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes   
#neversummer

Dick Pache
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 155
Age: 78
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 7:00 pm
Location: TGU Honduras 14.047N, 87.218W

Is This post early by 22 min

#34 Postby Dick Pache » Tue Sep 06, 2005 3:43 pm

My clock says 4:42 2042Z (MFJ dual LCD MFJ 108B)
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12512
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: Is This post early by 22 min

#35 Postby senorpepr » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:20 pm

Dick Pache wrote:My clock says 4:42 2042Z (MFJ dual LCD MFJ 108B)


The NHC normally ships products 15-30 minutes early, especially when they aren't affecting land. Normally this forecast is done way in advance with minor adjustments toward transmit time. This also allows for more time to be focused on landfalling systems.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 32894
Age: 30
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

#36 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:35 pm

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
0300Z WED SEP 07 2005

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 66.3W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 66.3W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 66.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.6N 66.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 30.5N 66.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.8N 64.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 38.5N 46.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 44.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 66.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
0 likes   
#neversummer

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 32894
Age: 30
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

#37 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:39 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...NATE STRENGTHENING...MEANDERING SOUTH OF BERMUDA...

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES... 415 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS STATIONARY. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
...150 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 66.3 W. MOVEMENT
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114519
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#38 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:00 pm

553
WTNT45 KNHC 070258
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

AN EARLIER SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS
SITUATED ABOUT 28 NM FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE
IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTED THAT A BANDING EYE FEATURE MAY BE
DEVELOPING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA AND SAB HAVE
INCREASED TO 55 KT...WHILE THE TAFB ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 65 KT.
BASED ON THE INCREASE OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED
INNER CORE DEPICTED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE.

NATE IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF MARIA AND
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING NATE'S LACK OF MOTION.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND DOES NOT
APPEAR TO AFFECTING THE STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTH OF NATE. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD HOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY
LITTLE MOTION...POSSIBLY A SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WEAKENING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
BASED OFF THE CONU CONSENSUS.

NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAIRLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA AS A
HURRICANE...WHETHER IT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND REMAINS TO BE SEEN. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 28.8N 66.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 66.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 29.6N 66.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 30.5N 66.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 31.8N 64.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 35.0N 57.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 38.5N 46.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0000Z 44.0N 33.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#39 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Sep 07, 2005 3:46 am

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 07, 2005



at 5 am EDT...0900z...the Bermuda Weather Service has issued a
tropical storm watch for Bermuda.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located
near latitude 28.8 north... longitude 66.5 west or about 260
miles... 420 km... south-southwest of Bermuda.

Nate is drifting toward the northwest near 2 mph... 4 km/hr. A
gradual turn toward the north or north-northeast is expected to
occur later today and on Thursday. On the forecast track...Nate is
forecast to pass near or just south of Bermuda Thursday night or
Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and
Nate could become a hurricane later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
...150 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...28.8 N... 66.5 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 2 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Stewart
0 likes   

User avatar
Matt-hurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11649
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Portland,OR
Contact:

#40 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:07 am

Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 7a


Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on September 07, 2005


...Nate near hurricane strength...
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bermuda.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located
near latitude 28.8 north... longitude 66.3 west or about 260
miles... 415 km... south-southwest of Bermuda.

Nate has been meandering and is nearly stationary. A slow northward
or northeastward motion is expected over the next 24 hours. On the
forecast track...Nate is forecast to pass near or just south of
Bermuda tonight or Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and
Nate could become a hurricane later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
...150 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.

Repeating the 8 am EDT position...28.8 N... 66.3 W. Movement...
nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum
central pressure... 990 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.

Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   


Return to “2005”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests