Tropical Storm Ophelia

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Brent
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#1721 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 14, 2005 11:51 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

...OPHELIA RELENTLESSLY LASHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SURF CITY TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE
FEAR.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 75 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND A SLOW
MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND
PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...PRIMARILY LOCATED OFFSHORE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. REPORTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY
NORTH CAROLINA INDICATE THAT THE STORM SURGE FLOODING IN SALTER
PATH WAS NEAR 7 FEET.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...34.4 N... 76.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#1722 Postby oneness » Thu Sep 15, 2005 1:17 am

One thing those upper-level winds in the west have done is to finally move the heavier bands around to the E and NE side of the storm.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mhx_N0Z_lp.shtml
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#1723 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Sep 15, 2005 1:21 am

Ophelia looks the best it has looked in its life right now. The eye is fully closed on IR. In the outflow is very good. If data did not say something else I would say its strenghing right now.
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#1724 Postby Pebbles » Thu Sep 15, 2005 1:32 am

Look at the radar loop... eyewall is open to the south.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmhx.shtml

Honestly i think she look much more impressive all day yesterday... she's not looking quite as impressive this morning.

Edit: I will give you though that the NE quad is improved... the southwest quad though is showing the effects of land interaction.
Last edited by Pebbles on Thu Sep 15, 2005 1:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1725 Postby oneness » Thu Sep 15, 2005 1:33 am

The outer banks residents are in for a terrible night and day to follow.

Image

Image

Image
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#1726 Postby gotoman38 » Thu Sep 15, 2005 1:50 am

Yeah... NC 12 might be cut to shreads.... Okracoke through Hatteras, Frisco and Buton might look worse than after Isabel.

First reports are that 12 might be cut up around Rodanthe near Oregon Inlet.
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#1727 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 15, 2005 6:01 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

...OPHELIA NOT IN A HURRY TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM EDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 45 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED
TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES.

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981
MB...28.97 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#1728 Postby GaryOBX » Thu Sep 15, 2005 6:17 am

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
400 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

...HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL PEAK WIND GUSTS THROUGH 4 AM EDT THU
SEP 15 2005 FROM VARIOUS OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

SITE                                KNOTS               MPH
--------------------------ASOS OBSERVATIONS------------------------
NEW BERN (EWN).......................42                 48
CAPE HATTERAS (HSE)..................47                 54
DUPLIN (DPL).........................32                 37
BEAUFORT (MRH).......................55                 63
CHERRY POINT (NKT)...................65                 75
NEW RIVER MCAS (NCA).................55                 63
RICHLANDS (OAJ)......................49                 56
KINSTON (ISO)........................34                 39
GREENVILLE (PGV).....................27                 31   
NEWPORT (MHX)........................50                 58
MANTEO (MQI).........................32                 37
KITTY HAWK (FFA).....................23                 26

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL PEAK WIND GUSTS AND HIGHEST SEAS
REPORTED ACROSS AREA BUOY AND C-MAN STATIONS THROUGH 4 AM EDT THU
SEP 15 2005.


SITE                        KNOTS    MPH          SEAS(FT)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
FRYING PAN (41013)..........64       74             21
ONSLOW BAY (41035)..........58       68             19
CAPE LOOKOUT (CLKN7)........78       90             NA
DIAMOND (41025).............54       62             21   


THIS INFORMATION IS CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY. A FINAL POST TROPICAL
CYCLONE REPORT ON TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WILL BE ISSUED ONCE THE
EVENT HAS ENDED AND NWS PERSONNEL CAN COLLECT ALL PERTINENT
INFORMATION.
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#1729 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 15, 2005 8:19 am

Hurricane Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 37b


Statement as of 9:00 am EDT on September 15, 2005



...Ophelia weakens slightly as it continues to skirt the North
Carolina Outer Banks...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Surf City to the North
Carolina/Virginia border...including the Pamlico and Albemarle
sounds.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect north of the North
Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia...including
the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 9 am EDT...1300z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 34.8 north...longitude 75.7 west or about 30 miles
south-southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Ophelia is moving erratically toward the east-northeast near 6 mph
...And a motion between northeast and east-northeast is expected
today. While the center of Ophelia is forecast to remain just
offshore and parallel the North Carolina Outer Banks... the
northern eyewall is expected to remain over the Outer Banks
during this period.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph with higher
gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some slow weakening is expected during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 984 mb...29.06 inches.

Maximum coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal
tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can
be expected in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 8 to 10
feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

Ophelia is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina...
including the Outer Banks during the next 24 hours...with maximum
storm total amounts of 15 inches possible.

Repeating the 9 am EDT position...34.8 N... 75.7 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...
80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 984 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

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#1730 Postby GaryOBX » Thu Sep 15, 2005 9:08 am

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
945 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 AM     HURRICANE        BUXTON                  35.26N 75.53W
09/15/2005                   DARE               NC   ASOS           

            SUSTAINED WINDS 66 MPH GUSTING TO 83 MPH.

0938 AM     STORM SURGE      SOUTH RIVER             34.96N 76.62W
09/15/2005  4.00 FT          CARTERET           NC   PUBLIC         

            4 FEET OF WATER IN BACKYARD OF A RESIDENCE
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#1731 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 15, 2005 9:32 am

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z THU SEP 15 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 225SE 200SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 75.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.7N 74.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 37.1N 73.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 39.2N 70.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 44.2N 63.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 51.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 75.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART
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#1732 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 15, 2005 9:32 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

...OPHELIA DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 55 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME WEAK ONCE AGAIN...SO SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS... THE NORTHERN EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER
BANKS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO POSSIBLY 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES. RECENTLY...AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF A SUSTAINED WIND OF 65
MPH WITH A GUST TO 95 MPH WAS RECEIVED FROM HATTERAS VILLAGE NORTH
CAROLINA...AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 66 MPH WITH A GUST TO 83 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 75.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#1733 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 15, 2005 9:57 am

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

OPHELIA HAS BECOME RAGGED LOOKING IN RADAR IMAGERY... AND WIND DATA
FROM BOTH COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 70
KT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ALSO
INCREASED 4 MB...NOW 986 MB...DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/03. OPHELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND
HAS PERHAPS EVEN STALLED AS THE CYCLONE IS...ONCE AGAIN... CAUGHT
BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST THAT EXTENDS
NORTHWARD FROM BERMUDA TO NOVA SCOTIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD... WHILE THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE WEST FROM
GEORGIA NORTHWARD TO OHIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE FLOW
PATTERN IS CURRENTLY MORE ZONAL THAN MERIDIONAL AND THIS
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP OPHELIA MOVING PARALLEL TO THE U.S. EAST
COAST. THE 06Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A LITTLE MORE OF A
WESTWARD SHIFT AFTER 48 HOURS...AND SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE NOGAPS
AND UKMET BRING OPHELIA OVER OR VERY CLOSE THE NEW ENGLAND AREA.
HOWEVER...THE GFDL...GFS...AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP OPHELIA WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN NOTED IN THE 12Z
UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ONLY SLOWER DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS.

EXCEPT FOR THE EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...NOT MUCH ELSE
IS FAVORABLE FOR ANY INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS INTRUDED FROM THE WEST...WHICH HAS HELPED
TO ERODE THE CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF OPHELIA. COOL SHELF
WATER JUST OFFSHORE THE OUTER BANKS IS ALSO HELPING TO STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE WEST SIDE AND WEAKEN THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER
...OPHELIA IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GULFSTREAM TO TAP INTO THE
WARMER 82-83F WATER THAT EXISTS THERE...SO ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST UNTIL 48 HOURS WHEN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND MUCH
COOLER WATER ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE TRANSITION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 34.8N 75.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 35.0N 75.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 35.7N 74.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 37.1N 73.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 39.2N 70.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 44.2N 63.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 19/1200Z 47.0N 56.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 20/1200Z 51.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#1734 Postby oneness » Thu Sep 15, 2005 11:20 am

Down to a third of an 'eye' wall and core now, and still withering ...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mhx_N0Z_lp.shtml
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#1735 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 15, 2005 12:50 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

...OPHELIA STALLS JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS. A PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 55 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A SLOW DRIFT TO THE
EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN EYEWALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE OUTER
BANKS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO POSSIBLY 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...MAINLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. DURING THE PAST
HOUR...A GUST TO 60 MPH WAS REPORTED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA...AND A GUST TO 81 MPH WAS REPORTED BY A NOAA BUOY
LOCATED AT DIAMOND SHOALS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...34.7 N... 75.7 W. MOVEMENT
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 986 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#1736 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 15, 2005 3:31 pm

152026
TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2100Z THU SEP 15 2005

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KT

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH...
INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.6W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 35NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 175SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.6W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 75.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.1N 75.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 36.4N 74.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 38.7N 71.6W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 41.7N 67.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 46.5N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 49.5N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 53.0N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 75.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART
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#1737 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 15, 2005 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

...OPHELIA WEAKENING AS IT DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH...
INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 60 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. OPHELIA IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER... SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. ALSO...WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EYEWALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OR
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO POSSIBLY 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...MAINLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. DURING THE PAST
HOUR... A GUST TO 85 MPH WAS REPORTED BY A NOAA BUOY LOCATED AT
DIAMOND SHOALS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 75.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#1738 Postby ncbird » Thu Sep 15, 2005 3:44 pm

Ophelia in my book will be forever known as the hurricane most like the guest who stops by to visit and doesn't know when it's time to leave..... the ones that wear out thier welcome so to speak.
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#1739 Postby x-y-no » Thu Sep 15, 2005 3:58 pm

Guess I should call my parents and tell them they're under a TS watch. :-)
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#1740 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 15, 2005 4:03 pm

TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

OPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE RAGGED LOOKING IN RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY MEASURED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KT
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND 79 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
THESE WIND VALUES ROUGHLY EQUAL 67 AND 63 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ALSO INCREASED TO 987 MB. THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 65 KT...JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP
OPHELIA AS A HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 060/03. DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS...OPHELIA HAS BRIEFLY STALLED...MADE A SMALL CLOCKWISE
LOOP...AND NOW APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING EASTWARD. HOWEVER...WITH
RIDGING PERSISTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OPHELIA...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD MOVE MORE NORTHWARD THAN EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND
GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST. THE 12Z GFDL...UKMET
...NOGAPS... AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE MADE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
SHIFT OVER OR NEAR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
DID NOT CHANGE AT ALL AND KEEPS OPHELIA WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. A CLOSER LOOK AT ALL OF THE MODEL FIELDS
INDICATES THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS ALSO REMAIN OFFSHORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. GIVEN THAT
OPHELIA IS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND SHOULD...THEREFORE... REMAIN
MORE VERTICALLY STACKED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE
GFS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE HOW FAST WILL
OPHELIA WEAKEN AND WHEN WILL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCUR.
OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WARMER GULFSTREAM
TO AT LEAST KEEP SOME DEEP CONVECTION GOING IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONCE OPHELIA REACHES
ABOUT 40N LATITUDE WHERE THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO A FORMIDABLE EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS PHASE CHANGE WILL OCCUR...A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 34.8N 75.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 35.1N 75.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 36.4N 74.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 38.7N 71.6W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 17/1800Z 41.7N 67.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 18/1800Z 46.5N 58.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 19/1800Z 49.5N 47.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 20/1800Z 53.0N 27.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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