Tropical Storm Ophelia

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wxman57
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#1761 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:00 pm

I think that the NHC lost the center. I have it at 36.7N/73.5W at 18Z using radar and satellite. The center is clearly visible well NE of the NHC's positoin. In fact, their position is almost outside the CDO to the southwest. What's going on there?
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NastyCat4

#1762 Postby NastyCat4 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:03 pm

Correct me if I am wrong, but does it not look like Ophelia is headed further inland towards the New Jersey area? Does it not look NW off-track from the NHC position?
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#1763 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:10 pm

Here are the satellite and radar images I'm using. I've marked where I clearly see the center, at just before 18Z and where the NHC positioned the center. I don't know what they're looking at:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ophelia85.gif">

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ophelia86.gif">
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#1764 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:46 pm

URNT12 KNHC 161820
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/1755Z
B. 36 DEG 24 MIN N
73 DEG 34 MIN W
C. 700 MB 3043 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 295 DEG 783 KT
G. 209 DEG 134 NM
H. 993 MB
I. 12 C/ 3068 M
J. 15 C/ 2982 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 WX16A OPHELIA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 73 KT SW QUAD 1738Z
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#1765 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:06 pm

WOCN31 CWHX 161800
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2005.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

OPHELIA FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.6 N AND LONGITUDE 73.5 W... ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 220 KM SOUTHEAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
994 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS... 24 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 16 3.00 PM 36.6N 73.5W 994 55 102
SEP 17 3.00 AM 38.7N 71.5W 994 55 102
SEP 17 3.00 PM 41.2N 68.6W 994 55 102
SEP 18 3.00 AM 44.4N 63.9W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 18 3.00 PM 46.5N 59.1W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 19 3.00 AM 48.0N 53.6W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 19 3.00 PM 49.7N 48.9W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 20 3.00 AM 51.7N 42.3W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 20 3.00 PM 53.1N 36.5W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 21 3.00 AM 54.5N 29.1W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 21 3.00 PM 54.9N 23.6W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING AHEAD OF OPHELIA. THIS RAIN WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE MARITIMES DURING THE DAY. PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ITSELF ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN AND WIND WILL
SPREAD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RAISED
WATER LEVELS AND HEAVY WAVE ACTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND FOR EASTERN
SHORE AND CAPE BRETON SUNDAY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN MARITIMES
MARINE DISTRICT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SHELF
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO NEWFOUNDLAND
WATERS ON SUNDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

OPHELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEASTWARDS.
FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY IT CAN BE SEEN THAT IT HAS UNDERGONE WEAK
SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO WEAKEN IT. RESEARCH FLIGHT AND RADAR
INDICATE THAT IT MAY ALSO BE TILTED AND SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF
SOME WEAKENING.

B. PROGNOSTIC

THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE IN THE THOUGHT BEHIND THE TRACK...HOWEVER WE
ARE MOVING THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST.. WHICH WILL
BRING OPHELIA ACROSS THE COAST ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE.
UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARLY INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER WINDS IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO HAVE REASON TO MAKE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ADJUSTMENT TO
THE TRACK.

IT IS CURRENTLY OVER 26 DEG WATER AND ALTHOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES
ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER ALONG THE TRACK IT WILL NOT REACH WATERS BELOW
20 C UNTIL AFTER 1200Z ON SATURDAY. SO ANY WEAKENING SHOULD BE SLOW.

OUR BEST ESTIMATE FOR INTENSITY IS 50 TO 55 KNOTS WHEN THE STORM
APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. THIS IS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THE CURRENT NHC TRACK...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD
OVER THE MODELS WITH ONE OR 2 SHOWING SOME STRENGTHENING AND MOST
KEEPING THE STRENGTH MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED.

OPHELIA WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS CAPE BRETON.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION INTO A MAJOR MID LATITIUDE
STORM IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER
SHORT WAVE BECOMES INVOLVED.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

THE GFS SUGGESTS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE IN THE 75 TO
100 MM RANGE (3 TO 4 INCHES) OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND 30 TO 60 MM (1 TO
2.0 INCHES) OVER SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK AND PEI. THIS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY CHANGE AS THE STORM NEARS..SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED
FORECASTS.

THE WIND FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN. WITH THE PREDICTED TRACK ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA..EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD
GUST TO 90 KM/H ALONG AND JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED TO
TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN HALF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING HALIFAX AND
AND TRURO.
WITH THE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TRACK WIND WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS. FURTHER WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
WITH THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS SUNDAYS WEATHER COME INTO THE
REGULAR FORECAST PERIOD.

HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING SATURDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 50 OR 60 CM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COASTLINE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH SPRING TIDES SATURDAY EVENING.
A MORE WESTERLY TRACK COULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALISED
FLOODING AND COASTAL DAMAGE PARTICULARLY NEAR CAPE SABLE ISLAND.
THE CURRENT TRACK BRINGS OPHELIA NEAR HALIFAX AT THE TIME OF LOW TIDE
SO STORM SURGES SHOULD NOT POSE A PROBLEM THERE. HOWEVER FURTHER
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND ATLANTIC COAST OF CAPE BRETON THE
HIGH TIDE MAY PHASE WITH OPHELIA AND BRING A RISK OF STORM SURGE
WITH THE HIGH TIDE SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR NEWFOUNDLAND IT WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY A WIND EVENT ON SUNDAY
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE RIGHT IF THE TRACK. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR WAVE ACTION AND STORM SURGE ALONG THE EXPOSED
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
16/18Z 120 120 100 70 60 60 50 40 0 0 0 0
17/06Z 120 125 100 80 60 60 50 40 0 0 0 0
17/18Z 115 140 110 65 50 65 45 25 0 0 0 0
18/06Z 80 165 120 40 35 70 40 5 0 0 0 0
18/18Z 70 180 135 35 25 65 35 0 0 0 0 0
19/06Z 120 195 145 45 35 55 25 0 0 0 0 0
19/18Z 160 205 160 50 40 45 20 0 0 0 0 0
20/06Z 160 215 180 50 40 35 20 0 0 0 0 0
20/18Z 160 225 200 50 40 25 20 0 0 0 0 0
21/06Z 160 235 220 50 40 15 20 0 0 0 0 0
21/18Z 160 245 240 50 40 5 20 0 0 0 0 0


END MCILDOON

55KT officially from CHC
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#1766 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:02 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

...OPEHLIA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE
ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTHWARD TO HALIFAX. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO
HALIFAX. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST OR ABOUT
170 MILES... 275 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 355 MILES... 565 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 65
MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 993
MB...29.32 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND CAPE COD.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...36.8 N... 73.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#1767 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:02 pm

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2100Z FRI SEP 16 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE
ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTHWARD TO HALIFAX. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO
HALIFAX. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 73.2W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 175SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 73.2W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 73.6W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 38.7N 71.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 41.6N 68.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 45.2N 63.6W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 48.0N 57.3W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 51.5N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 53.5N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 55.0N 14.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 73.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#1768 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:02 pm

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

OPHELIA HAS SOMEWHAT RE-ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
CONVECTION MAKING OCCASIONAL ATTEMPTS TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 993 MB.
THE NOAA PLANE MEASURED 73 KT AT 700 MB...AND A 59 KT SURFACE WIND
OFF THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. HOWEVER...THE
MAXIMUM WIND OBSERVED THUS FAR BY THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT AT 59 MB
IS 59 KT. THERE IS ALSO A REPORT OF 74 KT AT 2500 FT FROM THE
FIRST-EVER SUCCESSFUL AEROSONDE FLIGHT INTO THE CORE OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. BASED ON ALL THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 55 KT.

OPHELIA HAS TURNED RIGHT AND ACCELERATED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
040/11. THE STORM IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES...AND AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN THE STORM SHOULD
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED AFTER
72 HR BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION AT HIGH LATITUDE. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NEW TRACK IS AGAIN A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE OLD TRACK...PARTICULARLY AFTER 24 HR.

WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HR...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE OPHELIA CROSSES
THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM IN 12-18 HR. AFTER THAT...COLDER
WATER...INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 36.8N 73.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 38.7N 71.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 41.6N 68.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 45.2N 63.6W 50 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 18/1800Z 48.0N 57.3W 45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 19/1800Z 51.5N 43.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 20/1800Z 53.5N 27.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 21/1800Z 55.0N 14.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#1769 Postby Persepone » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:04 pm

Brent,

You did not include CAPE COD in your statements...

Here's what they say here:

Hurricane Local Statement

ANZ231>237-254-255-MAZ019>024-RIZ005>008-170400-

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
543 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA TO PASS ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET ISLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES OF NEWPORT AND WASHINGTON

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO
PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...WITH SPECIAL FOCUS ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR PLYMOUTH...BARNSTABLE...DUKES AND NANTUCKET COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR WINDHAM COUNTY IN NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...ALL OF RHODE ISLAND AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY EAST INCLUDING THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE COD CANAL.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 355
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING
NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH AND A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ON THIS EXPECTED TRACK...OPHELIA WILL PASS ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF NANTUCKET ISLAND AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY...CLOSE TO THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
A PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
NANTUCKET...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND CAPE COD TOWARD DAYBREAK.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT NANTUCKET WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE STORM CENTER.

TO THE WEST...FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS...A PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OR AT LEAST
WIND GUSTS IS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH
OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED AS SHE ACCELERATES PAST NANTUCKET ISLAND.
THIS REGION COULD SEE WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN BLOW ABOUT LIGHT UNSECURED OBJECTS
AND CAN BRING DOWN SMALL TREES AND LARGE TREE BRANCHES RESULTING IN
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES...IF THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AND
10 AM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND IN AND AROUND
BUZZARDS BAY. HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FOR
THE OUTER CAPE...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

TIDE ELEVATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
LOCATION FLOOD HIGH TIDE STORM TIDE
(NGVD) (NGVD) (3 FT SURGE NGVD)
NANTUCKET HARBOR 4.2 FT 1.7 FT/1205 PM 4.7 FT
WOODS HOLE 5.7 FT 1.6 FT/ 800 AM 4.6 FT

...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS...
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. UP TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALREADY OCCURRING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM CENTER.

SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION THE HEAVY RAIN MAY
ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS.

..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE LIVING ON OR WITH PROPERTY ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD OR
NANTUCKET SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORM THAT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO A
POWERFUL NOREASTER. PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF CAPE COD
BAY AND THE COASTLINE FROM BUZZARDS BAY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND
SHOULD ALSO PREPARE FOR STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS INTENSE AS ON
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

BOAT OWNERS ALONG THE COASTLINE SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS TO
SECURE THEIR VESSELS THIS EVENING.

MORE DETAILED PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ARE CONTAINED IN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS /BOSSPSBOX/ ISSUED BY NWS TAUNTON.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NEXT AROUND 830 PM EDT.

$$

DRV





Flash Flood Watch

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
515 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

MAZ022-171215-
BARNSTABLE MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOURNE...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...HYANNIS...
PROVINCETOWN...WELLFLEET
515 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF
DENSE FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. VERY WINDY. HUMID WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 MPH...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. VISIBILITY ONE
QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. VERY WINDY. HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...
THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

$$



Tropical Storm Warning

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
515 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

MAZ022-171215-
BARNSTABLE MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOURNE...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...HYANNIS...
PROVINCETOWN...WELLFLEET
515 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF
DENSE FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. VERY WINDY. HUMID WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 MPH...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. VISIBILITY ONE
QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. VERY WINDY. HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...
THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

$$



Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MOISTURE AHEAD OF OPHELIA CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN INTO A STATIONARY
FRONT...SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. AS
A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
CROSS OVER CAPE COD...THE ISLANDS...INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY THIS
EVENING. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

RAINS FROM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATER TONIGHT...AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.


MAZ018-019-021>024-170400-
/X.EXT.KBOX.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-050917T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...MATTAPOISETT...
CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET
400 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS

* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS THIS EVENING...PRODUCING LOCALLY TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. RAINS FROM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

* URBAN AREAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

NBELK






Special Weather Statement

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-171800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - TROPICAL STORM SAFETY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1250 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS
GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE IMPACTS OF A TROPICAL STORM INCLUDE
THE THREAT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION...SCATTERED
WIND DAMAGE AND SOME POWER OUTAGES...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.

...THE MARINE THREAT...
...BOAT OWNERS SHOULD TIE UP BOATS AND COMPLETE THEIR PREPARATIONS
AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
...BUILD IN EXTRA TIME. TROPICAL STORMS CAN ACCELERATE AS THEY
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND...DRAMATICALLY REDUCING THE TIME YOU HAVE
TO PREPARE.
...REALIZE THAT YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO PULL YOUR BOAT OUT OF THE
WATER. YOUR BEST ALTERNATIVE WILL BE TO PROPERLY TIE YOUR
BOAT DOWN.
...FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF YOUR MARINA OPERATOR SO THERE ARE NO
QUESTIONS OR ANY CONFUSION. ACT QUICKLY...THEN LEAVE YOUR
BOAT. RETURN ONLY WHEN THE STORM HAS MOVED COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE AREA.
...BE SURE TO REMOVE ANY NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS AND HAVE PICTURES AND
A WRITTEN DESCRIPTION OF THE VESSEL FOR INSURANCE PURPOSES.

...THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT...
TROPICAL STORMS CAN BRING LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND WAVES ALONG WITH
A STORM SURGE OF SEVERAL FEET.
...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND
NORTHEAST FACING COASTLINES.
...COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE IN ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT LIE
CLOSE TO THE WATER.
...LARGE WAVES AND SWELLS WILL RESULT IN BEACH EROSION.
...EVERYONE MUST REMAIN CLEAR OF BEACHES. LARGE SWELLS AND
WAVES CAN CREATE DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WHICH CAN POSE A DANGER TO
EVEN THE MOST SKILLED SWIMMER.
...EVACUATIONS ARE RARELY NEEDED...BUT SOME LOW LYING COASTAL
ROADS MAY NEED TO BE CLOSED DUE TO LARGE SWELLS AND WAVES
BREAKING OVER SEA WALLS.

...INLAND THREATS...
TROPICAL STORMS NOT ONLY AFFECT THE MARINE COMMUNITY...INLAND
AREAS CAN BE AFFECTED WITH STRONG WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING.
...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AS WELL AS DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED.
...YOU SHOULD PLAN FOR SOME POWER DISRUPTION AND SHOULD HAVE
BATTERIES AND FLASHLIGHTS AT THE READY.
...TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORMS CAN LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS ALONG WITH
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND STREETS.
...ANYONE THAT MIGHT CONSIDER CAMPING OR OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
SHOULD POSTPONE THOSE PLANS UNTIL THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND
FLASH FLOODING PASS.








Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
639 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-171039-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
639 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

.DAYS ONE AND TWO (TODAY...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. DENSE FOG WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER MILE THIS MORNING.

A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL
OF SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF NANTUCKET SATURDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS POSTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS NANTUCKET...MARTHAS VINEYARD...CAPE COD AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS NEWPORT AND
BRISTOL COUNTIES IN RHODE ISLAND. OPHELIAS PROJECTED TRACK BRINGS IT
WITHIN 60 MILES OF NANTUCKET MIDDAY SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 40
TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT NANTUCKET ISLAND.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM OPHELIA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN A
SIX HOUR PERIOD SATURDAY. URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY
OCCUR.

MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION MAY
OCCUR DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL ANY RAINFALL REPORTS OF
TWO INCHES OR MORE AND POOR DRAINAGE OR URBAN FLOODING.
IN ADDITION SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY.

$$

STRAUSS
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cycloneye
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#1770 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:06 pm

162358
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

...OPEHLIA CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE
ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO HALIFAX. THE PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA
FROM YARMOUTH TO LUNENBURG WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING LATER TONIGHT... AND THE WATCH AREA WILL ALSO BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THAT AREA FROM TRURO TO SHEET HARBOUR. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT
300 MILES... 480 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND CAPE COD.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...37.4 N... 72.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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Derek Ortt

#1771 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:51 pm

WTCN31 CWHX 162355
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 8:55 PM ADT FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2005.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= LUNENBURG COUNTY
=NEW= QUEENS COUNTY
=NEW= SHELBURNE COUNTY
=NEW= YARMOUTH COUNTY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...WITHIN 24 HOURS.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT OPHELIA WILL MOVE OVER CANADIAN WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH LAND SATURDAY EVENING.

RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY
OPHELIA. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER THE WARNING AREAS SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING AHEAD OF OPHELIA. THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE MARITIMES DURING THE DAY. A HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING OF UP
TO 100 MILLIMETRES IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

WINDS GUSTING UP TO 90 KM/H ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ITSELF ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE WARNING AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE FULL FOLIAGE ON THE TREES.. THESE WINDS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BREAK BRANCHES WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCAL POWER
OUTAGES.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RAISED WATER LEVELS AND HEAVY WAVE ACTION
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 50 OR 60 CENTIMETRES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH SPRING TIDES
SATURDAY EVENING. A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK COULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALISED FLOODING AND COASTAL DAMAGE PARTICULARLY NEAR CAPE SABLE
ISLAND. PLEASE LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS IS AN ALERT THAT TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE..LISTEN FOR UPDATED WARNINGS.

NOTE..HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE WOCN31
CWHX BULLETIN. FURTHER INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE
ENVIRONMENT CANADA CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WEBSITE
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.CA

NOTE..HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE WOCN31
CWHX BULLETIN.

END/ASPC


CHC has now issued a Tropical Storm Warning
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Derek Ortt

#1772 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 16, 2005 8:00 pm

WOCN31 CWHX 170000
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2005.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

OPHELIA FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT.

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.7 N AND LONGITUDE 72.5 W... ABOUT 140 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 260 KM EAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 993
MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS... 28 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 16 9.00 PM 37.7N 72.5W 993 55 102
SEP 17 9.00 AM 40.0N 70.0W 993 55 102
SEP 17 9.00 PM 43.4N 66.1W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 18 9.00 AM 46.9N 60.5W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 18 9.00 PM 49.0N 54.5W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 19 9.00 AM 50.6N 47.3W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 19 9.00 PM 51.9N 38.4W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 20 9.00 AM 52.5N 31.4W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING AHEAD OF OPHELIA. THIS RAIN WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE MARITIMES DURING THE DAY. PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ITSELF ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN AND WIND WILL
SPREAD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RAISED
WATER LEVELS AND HEAVY WAVE ACTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND FOR EASTERN
SHORE AND CAPE BRETON SUNDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES LUNENBURG
QUEENS SHELBURNE AND YARMOUTH. SEE BULLETIN FOR DETAILS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CONTINUED ELSEWHERE. SEE BULLETIN
FOR DETAILS.
WITH TRACK WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL AREAS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR MOST SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS. FURTHER WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED WITH THE SATURDAY
MORNINGS FORECAST AS SUNDAYS WEATHER COME INTO THE REGULAR FORECAST
PERIOD.


4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN MARITIMES
MARINE DISTRICT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SHELF
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO NEWFOUNDLAND
WATERS ON SUNDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

OPHELIA IS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND THE LATEST
RECONAISSANCE FLIGHT WOULD SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS OF 55 KNOTS.
THE CENTRE OF THE STORM IS LIKELY MORE TOWARDS THE CENTRE OF THE
CLOUD MASS THAN WAS THE CASE PREVIOUSLY AND IT IS EXHIBITING A
FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL AREA OF CONVECTION. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS TOO FAR
OFFSHORE FOR RADAR TO GIVE A GOOD FIX ANY LONGER. RADAR IS ONLY
PICKING UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS TO BE
MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS.

B. PROGNOSTIC

OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY OVER 25 OR 26 DEG WATER AND ALTHOUGH WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER ALONG THE TRACK IT WILL NOT REACH
WATERS BELOW 20 C UNTIL AFTER 1200Z ON SATURDAY. SO ANY WEAKENING
SHOULD BE SLOW.

OUR BEST ESTIMATE FOR INTENSITY IS 50 TO 55 KNOTS WHEN THE STORM
APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD
OVER THE MODELS WITH ONE OR 2 SHOWING SOME STRENGTHENING AND MOST
KEEPING THE STRENGTH MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED.
THE TRACK IS AGAIN SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST IN LINE WITH NHC
LATEST TRACK. THE TRACK IS CLOSELY RELATED TO THE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ON THE GFS. THE 500 MB FLOW OVER OPHELIA STRENGTHENS AS IT
MOVES NORTH OF LATITUDE 40 SO THAT IT SHOULD BE MOVING AT CLOSE TO
30 KNOTS AS IS MOVES ALONG THE LENGTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL
BESOMEWHAT FASTER THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

OPHELIA WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS CAPE BRETON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION INTO A
MAJOR MID LATITIUDE STORM IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC AND A
STRENGTHENING UPPER SHORT WAVE BECOMES INVOLVED.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

THE GFS SUGGESTS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE IN THE 75 TO
100 MM RANGE (3 TO 4 INCHES) OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND 30 TO 60 MM (1 TO
2.0 INCHES) OVER SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK AND PEI. THIS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY CHANGE AS THE STORM NEARS..SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED
FORECASTS.

THE WIND FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN. WITH THE PREDICTED TRACK ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.. WINDS COULD GUST TO 90 KM/H
ALONG AND JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING SATURDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 50 OR 60 CM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COASTLINE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH SPRING TIDES SATURDAY EVENING.
A MORE WESTERLY TRACK COULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALISED
FLOODING AND COASTAL DAMAGE PARTICULARLY NEAR CAPE SABLE ISLAND.
THE CURRENT TRACK BRINGS OPHELIA NEAR HALIFAX AT THE TIME OF LOW
TIDE SO STORM SURGES SHOULD NOT POSE A PROBLEM THERE. HOWEVER
FURTHER EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND ATLANTIC COAST OF CAPE
BRETON THE HIGH TIDE MAY PHASE WITH OPHELIA AND BRING A RISK OF
STORM SURGE WITH THE HIGH TIDE SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR NEWFOUNDLAND IT WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY A WIND EVENT ON SUNDAY
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE RIGHT IF THE TRACK. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR WAVE ACTION AND STORM SURGE ALONG THE EXPOSED
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST.


D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
17/00Z 120 120 100 75 60 60 50 40 0 0 0 0
17/12Z 115 130 105 70 55 60 45 30 0 0 0 0
18/00Z 95 150 115 50 40 65 40 15 0 0 0 0
18/12Z 75 170 125 35 30 65 35 0 0 0 0 0
19/00Z 95 185 140 40 30 60 30 0 0 0 0 0
19/12Z 140 200 150 45 35 50 20 0 0 0 0 0
20/00Z 160 210 170 50 40 40 20 0 0 0 0 0
20/12Z 160 220 190 50 40 30 20 0 0 0 0 0

END MCILDOON/ROUSSEL
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#1773 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z SAT SEP 17 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF WESTPORT
MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WESTPORT TO CAPE
COD TO PLYMOUTH...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
FROM YARMOUTH EASTWARD TO LUNENBURG. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA
HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TRURO WESTWARD TO NORTH
OF YARMOUTH...AND FROM EAST OF LUNENBURG EASTWARD TO SHEET HARBOUR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 72.2W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 175SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 72.2W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 72.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 40.0N 70.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 43.5N 65.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 46.5N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.7N 53.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.2N 38.9W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 55.0N 22.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 61.0N 9.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 72.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART
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#1774 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:42 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

...OPHELIA GRADUALLY ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT PARALLELS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NOVA SCOTIA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF WESTPORT
MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WESTPORT TO CAPE
COD TO PLYMOUTH...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
FROM YARMOUTH EASTWARD TO LUNENBURG. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA
HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TRURO WESTWARD TO NORTH
OF YARMOUTH...AND FROM EAST OF LUNENBURG EASTWARD TO SHEET HARBOUR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST
OR ABOUT 265 MILES... 430 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 650 MILES...1045 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX
NOVA SCOTIA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE COD.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...37.8 N... 72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#1775 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:01 pm

676
WTNT41 KNHC 170256
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

A LAST MINUTE RECON REPORT AT 0220Z SUPPORTS WHAT WAS NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THAT IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTERS BY
ALMOST 60 NMI. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SHEARING
APART...BUT RATHER...THE VORTEX IS JUST TILTED DOWNSTREAM BY THE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
ALSO RISEN TO 998 MB AND THE RECON WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
HAVE ONLY BEEN AROUND 50 KT AT 850 MB. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT HAS NOT YET BEEN SAMPLED...SO I AM HOLDING THE INTENSITY
AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION AND SPEED WAS ORIGINALLY SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...
BUT THE TIMELY FIX BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FLIGHT CREW
INDICATES OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST...
040 DEGREES...AT 13 KT. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON ACCELERATING OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IN 24 HOURS...WHICH ALSO KEEPS
THE CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. AFTER
24 HOURS...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36-48 HOURS AND THEN TURN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

INCREASING SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER WATER IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON OPHELIA
NOW. THE 55-KT INITIAL INTENSITY MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN THE
5 MB RISE IN PRESSURE...BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OF
MOTION. THE WIND RADII WERE TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT BASED ON A 00Z SHIP REPORT. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IS DECREASING...INCREASING BAROCLINIC EFFECTS FROM AN
APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP OPHELIA
A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 37.8N 72.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 40.0N 70.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 18/0000Z 43.5N 65.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 18/1200Z 46.5N 60.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 19/0000Z 48.7N 53.8W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 20/0000Z 52.2N 38.9W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/0000Z 55.0N 22.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 22/0000Z 61.0N 9.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

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#1776 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:52 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 170844
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...OPHELIA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
WEST OF WOODS HOLE TO WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO CAPE COD TO PLYMOUTH...INCLUDING
MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH EASTWARD TO
LUNENBURG. ADDITIONALLY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
TRURO WESTWARD TO NORTH OF YARMOUTH...AND FROM EAST OF LUNENBURG
EASTWARD TO SHEET HARBOUR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES... 205 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
AND ABOUT 505 MILES... 815 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE COD.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...39.5 N... 70.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#1777 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:09 am

000
WTNT41 KNHC 170901
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

OPHELIA IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGINNING TO LOSE SOME OF
ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS. RECON MEASURED AT 06Z A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ONLY AS
AS STRONG AS 63 KT...WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. DROPSONDES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT MEASURED ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE ABOUT 120
N MI FROM THE CENTER. BASED ON THE RECON DATA...THE WIND RADII IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED... AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 50 KT. THE INCREASING RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SEEN ON SATELLITE... WITH
DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED DOWNSHEAR TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK BAND
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD...ARE INDICATIONS THAT OPHELIA WILL SOON BE
EXTRATROPICAL. HOWEVER...IT COULD MAINTAIN MUCH OF ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY WHILE TRAVERSING THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A GOOD BIT FASTER THAN
BEFORE...040/18. OPHELIA IS NOW CAUGHT UP IN THE MIDLATITUDE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S. MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE GRADUAL
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BEND IN THE PATH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...BUT JUST A
LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE... AND THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 39.5N 70.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 42.1N 67.6W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 18/0600Z 45.4N 62.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 18/1800Z 48.0N 56.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 19/0600Z 49.6N 49.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 20/0600Z 52.5N 35.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/0600Z 57.0N 19.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 22/0600Z 62.5N 7.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#1778 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:11 am

171158
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...OPHELIA ABOUT TO MAKE CLOSEST APPROACH TO SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSSETTS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO CAPE COD TO PLYMOUTH...INCLUDING
MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA... EXCEPT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER
COUNTIES WHICH ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES... 150 KM... SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
AND ABOUT 470 MILES... 755 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...34 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...OPHELIA WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE COD.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...39.9 N... 69.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#1779 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:32 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...OPHELIA STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES
NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA
EXCEPT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUMBERLAND AND
COLCHESTER COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST
OF MASSACHUSETTS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES... 115 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT
385 MILES... 620 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE
CENTER NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

RAINFALLS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...40.7 N... 69.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#1780 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:32 am

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z SAT SEP 17 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA
EXCEPT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUMBERLAND AND
COLCHESTER COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 69.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 175SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 69.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 69.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 43.4N 65.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 46.4N 59.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.8N 53.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 54.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 59.0N 16.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 64.0N 7.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.7N 69.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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