Tropical Storm Ophelia

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#1701 Postby NCHurricane » Wed Sep 14, 2005 7:43 pm

ncdowneast wrote:Bobby Deskins a local TV met just recorded a 96.4mph gust in morehead city which is getting hammered tonight.

Here in greenville its just been breezy no big gust at all but have had plenty of rain around 4.5 inches at my house!


WCTI just reported Bobby had recorded a wind gust at 110MPH. He's using a handheld anenometer. I believe he was on a bridge (not sure if it was a high-rise or not.)

Chuck
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Last edited by NCHurricane on Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1702 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 14, 2005 7:48 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACH CAPE LOOKOUT...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7
MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR VERY
NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE NORTHERN
EYEWALL WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE
OUTER BANDS TONIGHT AND DURING MUCH OF TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...LIKELY LOCATED OFFSHORE IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CAPE LOOKOUT
RECENTLY REPORTED A 10-MINUTE MEAN WIND OF 75 MPH...WITH A GUST TO
92 MPH.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 9 PM EDT POSITION...34.2 N... 76.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#1703 Postby ncbird » Wed Sep 14, 2005 7:51 pm

I haven't herd many tornado reports as there usually is. Won't complain by any means .... just surprised and wondering why.
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#1704 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 14, 2005 7:52 pm

ncbird wrote:I haven't herd many tornado reports as there usually is. Won't complain by any means .... just surprised and wondering why.


Most likely because the northeastern quadrant has remained offshore.
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#1705 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:38 pm

This, to me, seems similar to Alex of last year and Emily of 1993 (NOT the one this year). Not so much intensity, since this one is weaker than either of the other two. But, Ophelia appears as if it will come very close to landfall but not quite. Yet, it is causing strong enough conditions that make me question: Will this count as a strike? Not that it totally matters, since it's still doing its damage.

-Andrew92
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#1706 Postby NCHurricane » Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:41 pm

I don't think they officially call it a strike unless the exact center crosses a landmass.

Not 100% sure on that though.

Chuck
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#1707 Postby krysof » Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:43 pm

why do models have it ENE then turn it to the NE or NNE, shouldn't it stay on its ENE track?
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#1708 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:11 pm

NCHurricane wrote:I don't think they officially call it a strike unless the exact center crosses a landmass.

Not 100% sure on that though.

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com


But the exact centers of Alex last year and Emily in '93 did not, and they are counted as strikes. That is the basis for my question.

-Andrew92
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#1709 Postby wxwatcher91 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:42 pm

I mentioned a few days ago the possibility of a loop (E-S-W-N) (caused by the high to the west of Ophelia) any thoughts... a possibility?
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#1710 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:47 pm

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z THU SEP 15 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR IS
DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SURF CITY TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 76.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 200SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 76.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 76.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.7N 75.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.3N 74.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 36.3N 73.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 38.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 42.5N 65.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 46.5N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 50.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 76.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#1711 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:48 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...OPHELIA CONTINUES TO POUND THE CAROLINA COAST...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR IS
DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SURF CITY TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND A SLOW
MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND
PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...PRIMARILY LOCATED OFFSHORE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...34.3 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#1712 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:58 pm

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 75 KT...BASED ON 84 KT WINDS AT 700
MB IN THE SOUTH EYEWALL...AND A 10-MIN MEAN WIND FROM CAPE LOOKOUT
OF 64 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP A LITTLE AND THE
EYEWALL HAS ERODED A BIT...SO OPHELIA MAY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SURGE OF
NORTHWESTERLIES IN THE MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERE IS RAPIDLY
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WHILE THIS MAY
BE TEMPORARILY ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL...I HAVE
TO THINK THAT THIS FLOW WILL BE A DISRUPTIVE INFLUENCE ON THE
CIRCULATION IN ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS OR SO. THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS SOME
WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM AS WELL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT UNDER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/6. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED QUITE A BIT
TO THE LEFT...WITH THE NOGAPS...GFDL...GFS...AND UKMET TAKING
OPHELIA CLOSE ENOUGH TO THREATEN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE TROUGH
COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES BEING DEEPER OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND A MORE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BERMUDA.
GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SHIFT IN ALL THE GUIDANCE...I HAVE ADJUSTED
THE TRACK TO THE LEFT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT DIRECTION
DOWN THE ROAD MAY BE REQUIRED.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 34.3N 76.5W 75 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 34.7N 75.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 35.3N 74.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 36.3N 73.6W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 38.0N 71.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 42.5N 65.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 19/0000Z 46.5N 56.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 20/0000Z 50.0N 42.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#1713 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:59 pm

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 75 KT...BASED ON 84 KT WINDS AT 700
MB IN THE SOUTH EYEWALL...AND A 10-MIN MEAN WIND FROM CAPE LOOKOUT
OF 64 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP A LITTLE AND THE
EYEWALL HAS ERODED A BIT...SO OPHELIA MAY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SURGE OF
NORTHWESTERLIES IN THE MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERE IS RAPIDLY
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WHILE THIS MAY
BE TEMPORARILY ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL...I HAVE
TO THINK THAT THIS FLOW WILL BE A DISRUPTIVE INFLUENCE ON THE
CIRCULATION IN ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS OR SO. THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS SOME
WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM AS WELL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT UNDER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/6. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED QUITE A BIT
TO THE LEFT...WITH THE NOGAPS...GFDL...GFS...AND UKMET TAKING
OPHELIA CLOSE ENOUGH TO THREATEN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE TROUGH
COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES BEING DEEPER OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND A MORE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BERMUDA.
GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SHIFT IN ALL THE GUIDANCE...I HAVE ADJUSTED
THE TRACK TO THE LEFT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT DIRECTION
DOWN THE ROAD MAY BE REQUIRED.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 34.3N 76.5W 75 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 34.7N 75.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 35.3N 74.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 36.3N 73.6W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 38.0N 71.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 42.5N 65.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 19/0000Z 46.5N 56.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 20/0000Z 50.0N 42.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#1714 Postby NC George » Wed Sep 14, 2005 10:04 pm

I think some portion of the eye has to cross land in order to count as a strike.

As an update, since 2:30 we haven't had a thing going on here in S Pitt County. Light breeze, birds chiping, frogs croaking, no rain. In fact the rain total for my location is 1".
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#1715 Postby NC George » Wed Sep 14, 2005 10:12 pm

Everyone needs to check out a 6-12 hour water vapor loop. They just showed it on my local tv news, and it's a great show of how upper level winds have an effect on a hurricane. You can see the line of dry wind coming from the west, it blows through, then the hurricane drops most of the activity on the west side, but seems to pull together tighter.

On the radar loop you can see how the hurricane is pressed into a flat line on the NW side.

Unfortunately, he pointed out the after a few hours the net effect of this was to stir the atmosphere vertically, resulting in stronger storms on the west side. He shoe evidence of these storms beginning to build near Greenville and Kinston.
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#1716 Postby jasons » Wed Sep 14, 2005 10:30 pm

NC George wrote:Everyone needs to check out a 6-12 hour water vapor loop. They just showed it on my local tv news, and it's a great show of how upper level winds have an effect on a hurricane. You can see the line of dry wind coming from the west, it blows through, then the hurricane drops most of the activity on the west side, but seems to pull together tighter.

On the radar loop you can see how the hurricane is pressed into a flat line on the NW side.

Unfortunately, he pointed out the after a few hours the net effect of this was to stir the atmosphere vertically, resulting in stronger storms on the west side. He shoe evidence of these storms beginning to build near Greenville and Kinston.


He must have read the 11PM NHC discussion as it details this :wink:
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#1717 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 10:57 pm

Andrew92 wrote:
NCHurricane wrote:I don't think they officially call it a strike unless the exact center crosses a landmass.

Not 100% sure on that though.

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com


But the exact centers of Alex last year and Emily in '93 did not, and they are counted as strikes. That is the basis for my question.

-Andrew92


I'm not sure if there's a difference between "strike" and "landfall"...

But from the Tropical Cyclone Report on Alex:

Alex made its closest approach to land near 1700 UTC, with its center located about 9 n mi southeast of Cape Hatteras, while the western eyewall of the hurricane raked the Outer Banks with sustained Category 1 hurricane force winds."

Although the center of Alex remained offshore (and therefore Alex technically did not make landfall), the western portion of the eyewall passed over the North Carolina Outer Banks on 3 August.


Perhaps Alex struck the Outer Banks, but it did not make landfall. The same will likely hold for Ophelia.
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#1718 Postby CronkPSU » Wed Sep 14, 2005 11:26 pm

i am just amazed at how this thing just seems to want to hug the coast throughout most of its lifetime...i thought for sure it would hit around MB, then Wilmington, then Jacksonville but it just keeps scraping the coast as the land jets further and further east
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#1719 Postby Skywatch_NC » Wed Sep 14, 2005 11:30 pm

I have a friend that I used to work with here in Raleigh...in April she moved to Buxton, NC and is an employee at Jockey's Ridge State Park there on the coast...looks like she is in for a long night and day tomorrow, too...

Eric
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#1720 Postby gotoman38 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 11:31 pm

NCHurricane wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:Bobby Deskins a local TV met just recorded a 96.4mph gust in morehead city which is getting hammered tonight.

Here in greenville its just been breezy no big gust at all but have had plenty of rain around 4.5 inches at my house!


WCTI just reported Bobby had recorded a wind gust at 110MPH. He's using a handheld anenometer. I believe he was on a bridge (not sure if it was a high-rise or not.)

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com


nice site... especially the local reports!
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