Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby Hyperstorm » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:32 am

000
WONT41 KNHC 171216
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
820 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE ABOUT 370 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. THE FIRST ADVISORY ON
THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 AM AST...1500Z.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#2 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:33 am

Yes sir! Here comes Phillipe
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#3 Postby skysummit » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:34 am

....and they are just lining up now......

Image
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#4 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:38 am

The burst is here. I think we will see TC ALpha before this season ends if the waves start pouring off Africa and developing. We still have the first cold fronts of the season that will move into the GOM and stall. The way this season is going I would not be surpised to see homebrew development from fronts stalling offshore this Fall. The GOM is still very warm for late Sept.
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#5 Postby WindRunner » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:40 am

skysummit wrote:....and they are just lining up now......

Image


That looks bad . . .
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Re: 17th Tropical Depression of the Season officially formed

#6 Postby feederband » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:42 am

Hyperstorm wrote:...SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON



:break:
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#7 Postby Cookiely » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:45 am

Could this be Philippe, Rita and Stan??
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atir.html
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#8 Postby skysummit » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:48 am

It sure looks like the rest of the names will get taken up quickly heh? :roll:
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#9 Postby WindRunner » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:50 am

Partial model runs so far, but labeled as "invest" because that's what it was at 8am.

WHXX01 KWBC 171241
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050917 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050917 1200 050918 0000 050918 1200 050919 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
A98E 12.8N 54.8W 13.6N 56.1W 14.4N 57.5W 15.2N 58.6W
LBAR 12.8N 54.8W 13.6N 56.0W 14.4N 57.3W 14.9N 58.5W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050919 1200 050920 1200 050921 1200 050922 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
A98E 16.2N 59.6W 18.6N 61.4W 20.3N 62.2W 22.0N 61.6W
LBAR 15.3N 60.0W 16.9N 62.7W 18.3N 64.8W 19.9N 66.6W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 54.8W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 53.4W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 51.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

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#10 Postby Hyperstorm » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:56 am

*Since the "Invest 95L" thread has been locked due to the formation of Tropical Depression 17, I will post here the thoughts I posted in that thread, plus 3 new observations at the end of the post.*


[Over the past 12 hours the area of disturbed weather east of the Lesser Antilles has become better organized. Convection has developed and persisted over what is now (finally) a closed surface circulation. This was the factor that kept them from upgrading earlier.

Yesterday morning, the system was beginning to outrun its own anticyclone and westerly wind shear was beginning to impinge on its broad circulation. The system has slowed down significantly during the past 24 hours and has allowed the upper-level anticyclone to catch up with it. That means that conditions over the system are more favorable than 24 hours ago when the system had an accelerated pace.

Once a system slows down or stalls, it is time to carefully monitor its progress for potential track changes. There is no strong high pressure ridge to the north of it to move it toward the west at this time as you can tell by the lack of steering. This usually means that the system should follow the weakness to the north and northeast of Puerto Rico. It will be a very close call if the system passes over or just north of the Leeward Islands. At this point, Puerto Rico should monitor its progress, but not be overly worried due to the lack of steering toward the west.

Now that the system has slowed down, has developed a closed surface circulation, and is situated in a favorable environment, it should intensify. How much depends on where the system moves. It appears that the system could run into some westerlies north of its anticyclone as it moves toward the NW. Outflow from the developing disturbance north of Puerto Rico could also be a factor. That being said, gradual and steady strengthening to potentially a hurricane appears to be in the cards.]


*You can easily see the steering toward the WNW or NW when you look at the lower level clouds over the NE Caribbean. Take a look at this visible loop and check how the lower level clouds have a tendency more northward in the Caribbean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

*Another thing to note is that the system is likely a tropical storm at this time according to satellite imagery. It could officially become one as early as this afternoon.

*Due to the lack of strong steering, the system may drift erratically during the next 24 hours in any direction. The longer the system remains in "slow" mode, the more chance it will give the high pressure that will be developing to its north, to grab it and move it more WNW.
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#11 Postby beachbum_al » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:04 am

Here we go again!
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#12 Postby WindRunner » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:13 am

Model graphics updated before the text did:

Image
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#13 Postby skysummit » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:14 am

I don't see that happening.
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#14 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:15 am

Now how is TD 17 going to turn N if its still heading W and Invest 96L to the NW will be pushed W into the the S GOM?? They are that far apart and will both be effected by the ridge. I agree skysummit I just do not see it.
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#15 Postby skufful » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:16 am

What exactly is the XTRAP? Is it the current direction, or is it an "XTRAP"olation of all the models?
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#16 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:18 am

I think XTRAP always shows the track which would occur, if TD kept its motion and speed of the last few hours ..
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#17 Postby krysof » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:18 am

Is this going to be a fish, or will that high build in a push it west in a few days.
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#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:20 am

17/1145 UTC 11.6N 54.6W T2.0/2.0 95
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#19 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:22 am

I know its early and we'll have to see how this storm and the long-range steering currents play out, but I'm not liking the synoptic pattern that the 06Z GFS is portraying. It looks like rather than weakening the Atlantic Ridge 5-6 days out, the latest GFS is strengthening it and causing TD17 to turn west after running almost due north from the Lesser Antilles. JB mentioned this yesterday that the long-term ensemble means over the western Atlantic were trending toward a stronger ridge in the 6-10 day period. I hope this doesn't pan out cause this would certainly block any re-curvature out to sea.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
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#20 Postby WindRunner » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:41 am

Models don't look good for 12Z:

WHXX01 KWBC 171324
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL172005) ON 20050917 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050917 1200 050918 0000 050918 1200 050919 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 54.8W 13.5N 56.0W 14.0N 56.8W 14.6N 57.4W
BAMM 12.8N 54.8W 13.5N 55.9W 14.0N 56.7W 14.5N 57.2W
A98E 12.8N 54.8W 13.6N 56.1W 14.4N 57.5W 15.2N 58.6W
LBAR 12.8N 54.8W 13.6N 56.0W 14.4N 57.3W 14.9N 58.5W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS 61KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS 61KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050919 1200 050920 1200 050921 1200 050922 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 57.6W 16.5N 58.1W 18.7N 58.2W 20.6N 58.5W
BAMM 14.9N 57.6W 16.0N 58.3W 17.8N 59.1W 19.4N 59.6W
A98E 16.2N 59.6W 18.6N 61.4W 20.3N 62.2W 22.0N 61.6W
LBAR 15.3N 60.0W 16.9N 62.7W 18.3N 64.8W 19.9N 66.6W
SHIP 72KTS 88KTS 97KTS 101KTS
DSHP 72KTS 88KTS 97KTS 101KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 54.8W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 53.4W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 51.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


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