Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#41 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:43 am

my bad... I was wrong...

:beam:

#42 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:50 am

Historical tracks from the 13.0-55w position TD17 is.

#43 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:53 am

this equals uh oh...

:raincloud:

jimbo · #44 Postby **jimbo** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:55 am

I said last night from the IR and WV that she 'he' was winding up. Buckle your seatbelts Carib/GOM, it's gonna be a bumpy 10 days.

Floater #2 (IR and WV) looks pretty impressive the last few frames as far as circulation getting together. Course it could be my eyes.

Jimbo

HurricaneGirl · #45 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:57 am

Holy Crap! Another new depression. :eek:

apocalypt-flyer · #46 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:58 am

Still a lot of uncertainty at the NHC concerning this one, I think.

x-y-no · #47 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:58 am

Derek makes an interesting observation in his forecast discussion (see analysis forum):

All guidance suggests a track north of the islands. However, it appears as if the guidance is overestimating the southward extent of the trough of low-pressure in the mid and upper levels.

His forecast track is left of the NHC track, but still right of the islands.

scostorms · #48 Postby **scostorms** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:02 am

Could 17 continue in that path and slam into NC, or do the hurricanes always curve out into the ocean on a path like that one?

#49 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:02 am

scostorms wrote:Could 17 continue in that path and slam into NC, or do the hurricanes always curve out into the ocean on a path like that one?

There is no "always" with tropical systems.

#50 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:24 am

Fast intenisfying possible with this system.

Scorpion · #51 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:25 am

I agree. This also isn't turning north like the NHC says. Just look at the ridge forecast to build in.

Website · #52 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:27 am

scostorms wrote:Could 17 continue in that path and slam into NC, or do the hurricanes always curve out into the ocean on a path like that one?

Could go either way... let's remember that Frances and Isabel both passed well north of the islands but ended up hitting the U.S.

I suspect though... that the NHC track is too far east. I'm thinking if it turns north, it will already be to the islands and then over Puerto Rico and then after that... who knows.

cajungal · #53 Postby **cajungal** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:40 am

Almost every model is recurving it into a fish. Just a couple of days ago they had it heading west near the Dominican Republic. I don't know if I buy the recurve scererio just yet.

#54 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:44 am

WindRunner · #55 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:47 am

I think that LBAR track seems the most likely for now.

vaffie · #56 Postby **vaffie** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:52 am

I still think it's going to hit or go south of Puerto Rico. Sorry guys.

hicksta · #57 Postby **hicksta** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:55 am

Hm, gfdl... Knows storms

Website · #58 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:57 am

The LBAR looks the best to me right now...

apocalypt-flyer · #59 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:59 am

I am with Windrunner and Brent here, I just cannot imagine TD17 turning NNW so quickly ..

Jim Cantore · #60 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:33 am

Looks like the models shifted further north overnight

I tend to agree more with crazy old LBAR the same model that had Katrina bouncing off Cape Canaveral like a pinball then hitting the Carolinas.

I just dont see it moving that far north that quickly

Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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