Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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#81 Postby Anonymous » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:47 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:


Thankfully 17 is weaker on this run, but ridge is stronger, less chance for fish. :eek:


It's only weaker because it only goes out 72 hrs...not 144 hrs.
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#82 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:51 pm

17/1800 UTC 12.9N 55.5W T2.5/2.5 17 -- Atlantic Ocean


Those 2.5 T numbers are of tropical storm status.
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#83 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:52 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:


Thankfully 17 is weaker on this run, but ridge is stronger, less chance for fish. :eek:


It's only weaker because it only goes out 72 hrs...not 144 hrs.


Thanks for telling me that, that's probably why it doesn't weaken the ridge, it will probably weaken past 72 hr.
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#84 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:17/1800 UTC 12.9N 55.5W T2.5/2.5 17 -- Atlantic Ocean


Those 2.5 T numbers are of tropical storm status.


Hmmmm... .1 degree south and .5 degrees west from 11am.

:?:
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#85 Postby SkeetoBite » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:04 pm

Sneak peek for S2K users of another project we are working on... yeah, it's accurate, but not quite ready for automation yet.

Image
Image

Edit: SST data current as of 09162005 at 5:30pm EST
Last edited by SkeetoBite on Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#86 Postby Deb321 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:08 pm

Great Job Skeetobite as always! :D
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#87 Postby oneness » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:09 pm

Looking at that continental and Atlantic high ridging in the CMC, I can't see 17 going too far northward before a westward curve starts. Not good.
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#88 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:12 pm

wow look at the incredibly warm waters in the northern bahamas and off the FL coast. They are around 89-90F. Could cause some major strengthening.

<RICKY>
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#89 Postby Lowpressure » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:13 pm

oneness wrote:Looking at that continental and Atlantic high ridging in the CMC, I can't see 17 going too far northward before a westward curve starts. Not good.


I am with you on the line of thinking.
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#90 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:17 pm

could there be Andrew-like path down the road with this one? :eek:
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#91 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:21 pm

boca_chris wrote:could there be Andrew-like path down the road with this one? :eek:


Here comes the flaming... :roll:
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#92 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:24 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:could there be Andrew-like path down the road with this one? :eek:


Here comes the flaming... :roll:

LOL!!!

Seriously, no flaming intended, but I was just waiting for someone to say it...
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#93 Postby Scorpion » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:25 pm

There is nothing impeding it I don't see why not. Andrew got down to only 922 mb, thats not that low compared to storms like Katrina. It was just that he was very small that he was very powerful.
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#94 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:25 pm

boca_chris wrote:could there be Andrew-like path down the road with this one? :eek:

Image
Frankly, it is possible moving WNW, then due W for an extended period. Not touching where it goes in the GOM.
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#95 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:26 pm

cjrciadt wrote:
boca_chris wrote:could there be Andrew-like path down the road with this one? :eek:

Image
Frankly, it is possible moving WNW, then due W for an extended period. Not touching where it goes in the GOM.

Why does that show it hitting FL as a cat 3?
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#96 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:28 pm

believe it or not. I think an Andrew-like path is not out of the question given the strength of the ridge that is forecasted to build in...
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#97 Postby SkeetoBite » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:31 pm

Probably just an error updating their "best track" analysis data released from NHC. We still need to add the update so it shows a CAT5 at landfall...
Image
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#98 Postby oneness » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:41 pm

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#99 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:09 pm

Based on the latest models, fish looks a lot more likely, even the LBAR has shifted right.

Image
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#100 Postby Scorpion » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:10 pm

Don't believe it for a second. There is a big high up there.
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