Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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cjrciadt
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#181 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:10 am

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#182 Postby curtadams » Sun Sep 18, 2005 10:13 am

Philippe's track makes a big difference. You can see it in the models, which go back and forth between a major hurricane and a struggling tropical storm. Philippe's projected track brushes the west end of a piece of subtropical jet. If he goes a little west he gets mild shear and becomes a major hurricane. If he goes a little east the jet blows his head off and he might even dissipate. He's under westerly shear now and you can see the convection is east of the LLC. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html The active area just to his north is the jet, with up to 60 knot (!) westerly shear.
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#183 Postby Scorpion » Sun Sep 18, 2005 10:15 am

Wow 60 kt. I wonder what would happen to a Cat 5 if it went into an area like that. How rapidly would it dissipate?
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#184 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 10:32 am

Scorpion wrote:Wow 60 kt. I wonder what would happen to a Cat 5 if it went into an area like that. How rapidly would it dissipate?


It wouldn't. A Cat 5 creates its own environment where it can fend off shear and dry air, only cold water and land can kill a Cat 5.
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#185 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:35 pm

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE (AL172005) ON 20050918 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050918 1800 050919 0600 050919 1800 050920 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.5N 55.7W 16.2N 56.3W 17.0N 56.8W 18.2N 57.3W
BAMM 15.5N 55.7W 16.1N 56.6W 17.0N 57.5W 18.0N 58.3W
A98E 15.5N 55.7W 16.7N 56.2W 17.5N 56.7W 18.3N 56.6W
LBAR 15.5N 55.7W 16.4N 56.3W 17.3N 57.1W 18.6N 58.0W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 60KTS 66KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 60KTS 66KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050920 1800 050921 1800 050922 1800 050923 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.6N 57.5W 22.4N 58.0W 24.8N 59.2W 26.6N 60.3W
BAMM 19.2N 58.9W 21.2N 59.8W 22.7N 60.5W 24.2N 60.6W
A98E 19.0N 56.9W 19.9N 57.1W 21.5N 57.8W 25.0N 58.1W
LBAR 19.7N 58.7W 21.5N 59.7W 23.1N 61.0W 24.6N 62.9W
SHIP 73KTS 81KTS 83KTS 80KTS
DSHP 73KTS 81KTS 83KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 55.7W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 55.3W DIRM12 = 339DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 54.9W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 50NM


18:00z Models.
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#186 Postby Hyperstorm » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:35 pm

Phillippe appears to be strengthening this afternoon. An impressive central dense overcast has explosively developed over the center of circulation suggesting that the storm is stronger than currently estimated by the models (60-65mph). The system will likely become a hurricane during the day tomorrow. There is some rather strong westerly winds north of the system, but the models forecast the anticyclone to move in tandem with it and keeping in a light shear environment.

Phillippe has been a well behaved storm. The storm has followed the pattern and guidance which had the system moving just to the east of the Lesser Antilles. It should continue moving NW during the next few days due to the unusual weakness in that part of the Atlantic. The track reminds me of Iris in 1995, which abruptly turned northward when it was over the islands.
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#187 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:12 pm

Flying to the N. still too early to bilindly right off our Frenchman.
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#188 Postby Hyperstorm » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:44 pm

At 5pm, Phillippe has been kept as a 50 mph tropical storm. This is likely due to the Dvorak intensity estimates, which are 3 hours old, indicating such. However, as I pointed out in the previous post, the system has definitely become better organized over the past few hours and that should be reflected tonight.
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#189 Postby skufful » Sun Sep 18, 2005 5:18 pm

Looks like a smidgeon of a westerly model shift?
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#190 Postby krysof » Sun Sep 18, 2005 5:23 pm

Will the ridge build in or not?
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#191 Postby superfly » Sun Sep 18, 2005 5:24 pm

The ridge is already in place. The question is if there will be a weakness forming.
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#192 Postby skufful » Sun Sep 18, 2005 5:46 pm

At what latitude would you see westerly movement absent the weakness and why are the models picking up on it, or is too far out >120hrs
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#193 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:53 pm

HURRICANE!!!! And pressure down 13mb to 987.

WHXX01 KWBC 190048
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE PHILIPPE (AL172005) ON 20050919 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050919 0000 050919 1200 050920 0000 050920 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.3N 55.9W 17.0N 56.5W 17.8N 57.0W 18.9N 57.5W
BAMM 16.3N 55.9W 17.2N 56.7W 18.1N 57.5W 19.3N 58.4W
A98E 16.3N 55.9W 17.5N 56.2W 18.6N 56.4W 19.7N 56.2W
LBAR 16.3N 55.9W 17.6N 56.5W 18.7N 57.3W 19.9N 58.0W
SHIP 65KTS 76KTS 82KTS 86KTS
DSHP 65KTS 76KTS 82KTS 86KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050921 0000 050922 0000 050923 0000 050924 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.3N 57.7W 22.8N 58.3W 24.8N 59.4W 27.0N 58.9W
BAMM 20.4N 58.8W 22.2N 59.7W 23.5N 60.1W 25.6N 58.4W
A98E 20.7N 56.4W 22.3N 56.6W 24.9N 57.4W 28.6N 57.5W
LBAR 20.9N 58.6W 22.5N 59.8W 24.1N 61.7W 25.8N 63.9W
SHIP 90KTS 93KTS 90KTS 82KTS
DSHP 90KTS 93KTS 90KTS 82KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 55.9W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 55.5W DIRM12 = 343DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 55.1W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 50NM

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#194 Postby truballer#1 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:55 pm

wow
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#195 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:00 pm

Now the very active season is at 17/8/4.But it will be 9 canes very soon so 17/9/4 and we still are in september.
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#196 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:02 pm

cycloneye wrote:Now the very active season is at 17/8/4.But it will be 9 canes very soon so 17/9/4 and we still are in september.

Probably will become 17/9/6, as both Philippe and Rita go for major. Models tonight don't show Philippe as a major, but I still think it will make a run for it at least.
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#197 Postby superfly » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:03 pm

skufful wrote:At what latitude would you see westerly movement absent the weakness and why are the models picking up on it, or is too far out >120hrs

At around the same latitude as Rita since it is the same ridge. Most of the models are showing a weakness forming before any significant westward motion happens. A few do not show the weakness like the CMC.
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#198 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:04 pm

All this from a season with no Cape verde season!!!
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#199 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:04 pm

But this does not stop here because there is 97 on the horizon.
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#200 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:But this does not stop here because there is 97 on the horizon.

Absolutely. Unbelievable.
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