Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

OURAGAN · #121 Postby **OURAGAN** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 5:06 pm

I don't tkink the center now is north of the convection, may be it will reform under the center of the ball of convection near 13 N.

nequad · #122 Postby **nequad** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 5:07 pm

78 HR 18Z GFS. Seems to have a better handle on TD 17 this run than previous runs.

CocoCreek · #123 Postby **CocoCreek** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 5:16 pm

[quote="nequad"]78 HR 18Z GFS. Seems to have a better handle on TD 17 this run than previous runs.

Based on that model run/graphic, it sure seems as if there will be a big blocking high in the way for TD17 to go too much further North later on in the forecast.

nequad · #124 Postby **nequad** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 5:23 pm

If you look closely at that map you'll notice a cold front located from New England south to North Carolina.

This feature weakens the ridge...allowing for a more north motion until the ridge can fill again.

nequad · #125 Postby **nequad** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 5:24 pm

That's not to say that it will happen as such. But all global models show this scenario as of now.

Recurve · #126 Postby **Recurve** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 6:01 pm

nequad wrote:If you look closely at that map you'll notice a cold front located from New England south to North Carolina.

This feature weakens the ridge...allowing for a more north motion until the ridge can fill again.

Good points.

Recurve wants this one to recurve.

#127 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 6:08 pm

More models.

MiamiensisWx · #128 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 6:50 pm

Looks like some of the models have shifted more to the left (west). Anyone else notice that?

CocoCreek · #129 Postby **CocoCreek** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 6:54 pm

TD 17 on Infrared is really starting to crank up...I'd definitely be willing to bet it's a TS at 11PM. Really doesn't look like it's moving/has moved very much...definitely expanding though and taking up more real estate. Bigger it gets the more impact the islands are going to have even if it takes a more NNW path.

#130 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:02 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 55.2W...OR 250
NM E OF BARBADOS...AT 17/2100 UTC MOVING NW 8 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS MUSHROOMED OVER AND TO THE S OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION...WITH MORE DISORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY UP TO 500 NM TO THE NE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
LOOKS GOOD...AND IMPROVING...IN ALL FOUR QUADRANTS SO IT APPEARS
THE DEPRESSION SHOULD SOON STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
53W-57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-18N
BETWEEN 50W-54W.

The above is the 8 PM Discussion from NHC.

MiamiensisWx · #131 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:06 pm

TD 17 is looking more and more impressive on infra-red imagery. It is developing good outflow, great convection and a better shape.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

I would not be surprised if it becomes a tropical storm tonight and is upgraded. In fact, it could be Philippe already.

#132 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:24 pm

17/2345 UTC 13.1N 54.8W T2.5/2.5 17 -- Atlantic Ocean

That position is more south than the 5 PM advisorie which was 13.8n.

Ola · #133 Postby **Ola** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:
17/2345 UTC 13.1N 54.8W T2.5/2.5 17 -- Atlantic Ocean

That position is more south than the 5 PM advisorie which was 13.8n.

Well more south and more east. But remember that those are estimates b y looking at sattelite and the 5pm position was a recon fix. Also remember that those guys that do Dvorak are locked in a room and are not allowed to read advisories in order to be objective.

OURAGAN · #134 Postby **OURAGAN** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:32 pm

it's not suprise me regarding the ball of convection centered near 13N.

#135 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM SEVENTEEN (AL172005) ON 20050918 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050918 0000 050918 1200 050919 0000 050919 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 55.0W 14.6N 55.6W 15.3N 55.8W 16.2N 56.0W
BAMM 13.9N 55.0W 14.6N 55.7W 15.4N 56.2W 16.2N 56.6W
A98E 13.9N 55.0W 14.5N 55.5W 15.2N 56.3W 16.2N 56.7W
LBAR 13.9N 55.0W 14.6N 55.7W 15.3N 56.7W 16.0N 57.7W
SHIP 35KTS 44KTS 53KTS 62KTS
DSHP 35KTS 44KTS 53KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050920 0000 050921 0000 050922 0000 050923 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.4N 56.0W 20.3N 56.0W 23.5N 56.0W 26.8N 56.4W
BAMM 17.3N 57.0W 19.5N 57.9W 22.0N 58.7W 24.4N 59.5W
A98E 17.7N 56.8W 21.2N 57.1W 24.5N 57.6W 26.9N 57.8W
LBAR 16.8N 58.9W 18.6N 61.1W 21.0N 62.7W 23.1N 63.1W
SHIP 70KTS 82KTS 88KTS 89KTS
DSHP 70KTS 82KTS 88KTS 89KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.9N LONCUR = 55.0W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 54.6W DIRM12 = 327DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 53.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 15NM RD34SE = 25NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 15NM

We got Phillipe

Website · #136 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:46 pm

Good evening Phillippe... one step closer to Alpha!!!

Do I hear Rita before tomorrow is over?

#137 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:37 pm

OK - so how do we pronounce this one? Phi-leep or Phi-leep-ay??

krysof · #138 Postby **krysof** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:39 pm

Welcome to hurricane season 2005 Phillipe or Phil whatever you like to be called. Hope you join us soon too Rita.

#139 Postby **Andrew92** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:40 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:OK - so how do we pronounce this one? Phi-leep or Phi-leep-ay??

I think Fe-Leep. I know it's French.

-Andrew92

gtalum · #140 Postby **gtalum** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:42 pm

It's "Fee-Leep"

It is French.

Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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