Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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krysof

#201 Postby krysof » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:07 pm

some people thought they were in a lull for the next week or so after Ophelia, NOT HAPPENING!
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#202 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:44 am

HURRICANE PHILIPPE (AL172005) ON 20050919 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050919 1200 050920 0000 050920 1200 050921 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 56.2W 17.9N 56.5W 19.0N 56.8W 20.5N 57.0W
BAMM 17.2N 56.2W 18.0N 56.9W 19.0N 57.7W 20.4N 58.2W
A98E 17.2N 56.2W 18.3N 56.4W 19.3N 56.3W 20.7N 56.2W
LBAR 17.2N 56.2W 18.4N 56.6W 19.5N 57.1W 20.8N 57.6W
SHIP 65KTS 67KTS 69KTS 74KTS
DSHP 65KTS 67KTS 69KTS 74KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050921 1200 050922 1200 050923 1200 050924 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 57.5W 25.3N 59.1W 28.1N 59.0W 31.3N 57.5W
BAMM 21.7N 58.6W 24.3N 59.2W 27.0N 58.2W 30.2N 55.7W
A98E 22.3N 56.5W 25.0N 56.9W 28.4N 56.9W 32.2N 55.1W
LBAR 21.9N 58.4W 24.2N 59.9W 26.0N 62.0W 27.8N 63.8W
SHIP 79KTS 92KTS 99KTS 95KTS
DSHP 79KTS 92KTS 99KTS 95KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.2N LONCUR = 56.2W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 55.9W DIRM12 = 347DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 55.5W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 988MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM
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#203 Postby RU4REAL » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:58 am

local met said this morning that Philippe was completley out of the question, that it would not be a threat to the US
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#204 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:00 am

RU4REAL wrote:local met said this morning that Philippe was completley out of the question, that it would not be a threat to the US


is "not" out of the question, or "is" out of the question? I'm sorry, I didn't understand your post.
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#205 Postby aOl » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:03 am

Philippe is a fish, bottom line.
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#206 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:25 am

Brief Update:

Satellite imagery this morning suggest that Phillippe is becoming disorganized due to westerly wind flow at the upper levels that is disrupting the cloud pattern. This westerly flow was forecast by the models to lift northward, but that has not been the case.

If this trend continues, Phillippe could be downgraded to a tropical storm later today...
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#207 Postby sponger » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:46 am

Come on Phillipe! We could use another long period ground swell! All east coast surfers are rooting for a cat 4 fish that stalls until Nov!
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#208 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:14 am

Image
N then NE, except of course the LBAR. :roll:
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#209 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:15 am

That LBAR always has to be different.
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#210 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:27 am

our friend Bastardi still Insists Phillipe will come west...
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#211 Postby skufful » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:31 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:our friend Bastardi still Insists Phillipe will come west...


Do you have a link for that projection, I just went to accuweather and did not see that.
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#212 Postby skufful » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:32 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:our friend Bastardi still Insists Phillipe will come west...


Do you have a link for that projection, I just went to accuweather and did not see that.
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#213 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:39 am

skufful wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:our friend Bastardi still Insists Phillipe will come west...


Do you have a link for that projection, I just went to accuweather and did not see that.


.) Phillippe: Heh, a model agrees with me, though it's the Canadian. Most ideas are still north with no westward turn. I will stick to my guns, for now.


Here is his free Column today..Canadian has it in the Bahamas in 5 days
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#214 Postby skufful » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:41 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
skufful wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:our friend Bastardi still Insists Phillipe will come west...


Do you have a link for that projection, I just went to accuweather and did not see that.


.) Phillippe: Heh, a model agrees with me, though it's the Canadian. Most ideas are still north with no westward turn. I will stick to my guns, for now.


Here is his free Column today..Canadian has it in the Bahamas in 5 days


?????
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#215 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:43 am

skufful wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
skufful wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:our friend Bastardi still Insists Phillipe will come west...


Do you have a link for that projection, I just went to accuweather and did not see that.


.) Phillippe: Heh, a model agrees with me, though it's the Canadian. Most ideas are still north with no westward turn. I will stick to my guns, for now.


Here is his free Column today..Canadian has it in the Bahamas in 5 days


?????


What? That was his comments word for word this morn...
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#216 Postby bvigal » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:48 am

I agree that Philippe is looking much effected by shear. Could some of the weakening also be interaction with Rita?

Anyway, looks like for the near term, it's All About Rita!
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#217 Postby skufful » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:44 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
skufful wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
skufful wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:our friend Bastardi still Insists Phillipe will come west...


Do you have a link for that projection, I just went to accuweather and did not see that.


.) Phillippe: Heh, a model agrees with me, though it's the Canadian. Most ideas are still north with no westward turn. I will stick to my guns, for now.


Here is his free Column today..Canadian has it in the Bahamas in 5 days


?????


What? That was his comments word for word this morn...


I did not know what were your words, and what were his. You said "Here is his......," did you mean "Here IN?"
Last edited by skufful on Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#218 Postby Marilyn » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:59 pm

Where can we go to look at the canadian model? Could it be possible that P could come West? If he is being sheared and is down graded could that cause a turn to the west? Or is Mr. B running off at the mouth. and trying to worry everyone from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast. Don't get me wrong i sometimes like him , But all the models show a northern path
Thanks Marilyn :wink:
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#219 Postby Marilyn » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:59 pm

Where can we go to look at the canadian model? Could it be possible that P could come West? If he is being sheared and is down graded could that cause a turn to the west? Or is Mr. B running off at the mouth. and trying to worry everyone from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast. Don't get me wrong i sometimes like him , But all the models show a northern path
Thanks Marilyn :wink:
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#220 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:07 pm

Image
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