Tropical Depression 18,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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WeatherEmperor
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#181 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:02 pm

ivanhater wrote:i believe new vortex has center further north 22 and 11min


what do you mean 11min?

<RICKY>
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#182 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:03 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
ivanhater wrote:i believe new vortex has center further north 22 and 11min


what do you mean 11min?

<RICKY>


well if i payed enough attention in met class, there is 15 min in a degree
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#183 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:05 pm

ivanhater wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
ivanhater wrote:i believe new vortex has center further north 22 and 11min


what do you mean 11min?

<RICKY>


well if i payed enough attention in met class, there is 15 min in a degree


lol oh ok. i had no idea what it was.

<RICKY>
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#184 Postby CocoCreek » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:08 pm

Bryan Norcross @ WFOR TV just have a hurricane update during football coverage...he's concerned and thinks the track will shift North at 5PM due to the center reforming and hurricane watches will be put up on the East Coast North of the Keys.
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#185 Postby THead » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:08 pm

Brian Norcross local Miami met, (if you don't know Brian, its a shame) reporting he thinks the center of circulation is reforming at around 23N.
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#186 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:10 pm

Bryan Norcross @ WFOR TV just have a hurricane update during football coverage...he's concerned and thinks the track will shift North at 5PM due to the center reforming and hurricane watches will be put up on the East Coast North of the Keys.


Yes, I have been saying this all afternoon...it will shift at 5pm and we may even have a Rita....hurricane watches will be put up to about W. Palm Beach I think.
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#187 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:11 pm

Barage of models
Image
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#188 Postby Canelaw99 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:13 pm

Great map cjr....however, the models are only as good as the data that is input. If, in fact, the center has reformed closer to 23 N, then shift the model tracks up to correspond and S. FL becomes a bad place to be....
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#189 Postby tracyswfla » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:13 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:Great map cjr....however, the models are only as good as the data that is input. If, in fact, the center has reformed closer to 23 N, then shift the model tracks up to correspond and S. FL becomes a bad place to be....


That said, what about the West Coast... Naples/Ft.Myers area?
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#190 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:16 pm

Good point the new center is just about at 23N that can make a difference for the 00z runs, everyone in the GOM should watch this is good advise this far out.
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#191 Postby T'Bonz » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:18 pm

LOL. Is the LBAR on crack?
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#192 Postby Hyperstorm » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:23 pm

Oh Rita...Rita...Rita...What a system.

Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that the inner structure of the system is gradually, but impressively, becoming better organized. The LLC appears to be slowly reforming further north (near 23.4N 72.4W) near the center of the cloudmass, which suggests an expanding outflow pattern. The earlier ULL that had been disrupting its structure is traveling westward away from the system. Once that inner core consolidates, strengthening is likely.

Future Rita will now only be left standing by itself, unbothered, in the center of a very warm and favorable ocean near the Bahamas. This area of the ocean has been known for decades to be able to spawn some of the most rapidly deepening cyclones we've seen in the Atlantic. We could be looking at a rapidly deepening storm over the 90* SSTs if this favorable pattern (as suggested by the models) persists.

PLEASE listen to your local authorities and if you have to evacuate, DO SO. This could be a potentially serious and dangerous situation.

Please continue to monitor this situation CAREFULLY.
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#193 Postby tailgater » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:30 pm

I like the clipper model, can we go with that one. :idea:
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#194 Postby HurricaneQueen » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:32 pm

I HOPE LBAR is on crack. That's the track I was asking not to happen last night-up the West Coast of FL and into Tampa Bay.
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GO FLORIDA GATORS

jax

#195 Postby jax » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:35 pm

HurricaneQueen wrote:I HOPE LBAR is on crack. That's the track I was asking not to happen last night-up the West Coast of FL and into Tampa Bay.


i don't think LBAR has been right in 3 years...
looking more and more obvious that this is going
much further west...
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