Tropical Depression 18,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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JPmia
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#121 Postby JPmia » Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:03 am

Those models tracks look reasonable to me. I wonder why the Bahamas put up a watch for the Freeport area. I think this is more of a Keys problem than Miami/Ft. laud. Looks like that high will be rather strong
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Thunder44
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#122 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:04 am

It looks they are going to have to shift the track a little further north anyway, because the center looks like it's reforming a little bit further to the NE of Turks and Caicos Islands.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tailgater
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#123 Postby tailgater » Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:06 am

The track may need to adjusted again because if I'm looking at the vis. loops right this morning there is a new circulation that is taking over at 22.5n 72.0 w ( IMHO).
HA looks like THUNDER beat to the punch.
Last edited by tailgater on Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#124 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:07 am

The Benchmark of rapid intensification, not expecting anything like this at all.
Image
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#125 Postby x-y-no » Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:11 am

tailgater wrote:The track may need to adjusted again because if I'm looking at the vis. loops right this morning there is a new circulation that is taking over at 22.5n 72.0 w ( IMHO).
HA looks like THUNDER beat to the punch.


Yes, I agree. The center now appears to be a fair bit further north than it was tracking. Not exactly what I wanted to see.
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cycloneye
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#126 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:11 am

I wasn't here as I was in church and found this thread locked.I dont know who did it but as long TD 18 is there it will remain open.
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#127 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:13 am

Thanks cycloneye.
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#128 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:15 am

thanks

looks like the convection has decreased a little from the IR loops over the past few hours
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#129 Postby NCHurricane » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:19 am

TY cycloneye. 8-)
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krysof

#130 Postby krysof » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:48 am

CronkPSU wrote:thanks

looks like the convection has decreased a little from the IR loops over the past few hours


Probably just part of itself organizing.
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#131 Postby wxwonder12 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:28 pm

From the satallite pictures it dosen't look like it is moving very much right now.
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#132 Postby Recurve » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:34 pm

Latest update said movement west. This seems like a good thing for South Florida and the Keys. Key West NWS met just said on radio they are expecting a cat 1 to move 30 miles south of Key West.
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#133 Postby ericinmia » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:38 pm

the fsu mm5 is rolling in....

I think it has had a few too many drinks off the cruise ships....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/EIGHTEEN.track.png

west, southwest, northwest... whats next... ;)
Last edited by ericinmia on Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#134 Postby vaffie » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:39 pm

Outflow is rapidly improving to its west. The upper low moving south seems to now be HELPing to increase outflow--this may ultimately allow TD18/Rita to strengthen tonight and tomorrow much faster than projected in my opinion.
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krysof

#135 Postby krysof » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:43 pm

Image

I hope this works, I know it's not clear, but this is where I think TD 18 (Rita) will go. Of course:


Black-TD
Green-TS
Yellow-Cat 1
Orange-Cat 2
Red- Cat 3
Purple- Cat 4
Cat 5 is not included because I don't think it will reach Category 5 intensity.
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#136 Postby JTD » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:47 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Well I like the Shakespearean type wording...haha I'm just insane. I just finished A Midsummer Night's Dream

ANYWAY, we must watch the trough forecasted to dig into SE US by
Wednesday for that northerly turn....


A trough would tear the system apart right apart from the effect that it has on track?
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#137 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:50 pm

Mobile/Pensacola AFD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST FOR WED AND BEYOND WILL BE HIGHLY AFFECTED BY THE EVENTUAL
PATH OF TD-18...SOON TO BE TROPICAL STORM RITA. BY EARLY WED IT
SHOULD HAVE PASSED WEST OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND EMERGED INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH NHC FORECASTING IT TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
HURRICANE BY THAT TIME. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND CLOUD COVER AND POPS
UPWARD ALONG THE COAST...SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH...BEGINNING THU
MORN. THE STORM MAY BE DRAWN TO THE NORTH A BIT ON WED AS A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...
HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES IT ON A COURSE SOUTH OF LATITUDE 25N
INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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#138 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:52 pm

jason0509 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Well I like the Shakespearean type wording...haha I'm just insane. I just finished A Midsummer Night's Dream

ANYWAY, we must watch the trough forecasted to dig into SE US by
Wednesday for that northerly turn....


A trough would tear the system apart right apart from the effect that it has on track?


Wait I thought a trough pulls a system northward...or weakens the ridge and that allows northerly motion...??
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#139 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:53 pm

will there be a 2:00 advisory on td 18?
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#140 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:54 pm

ivanhater wrote:Mobile/Pensacola AFD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST FOR WED AND BEYOND WILL BE HIGHLY AFFECTED BY THE EVENTUAL
PATH OF TD-18...SOON TO BE TROPICAL STORM RITA. BY EARLY WED IT
SHOULD HAVE PASSED WEST OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND EMERGED INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH NHC FORECASTING IT TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
HURRICANE BY THAT TIME. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND CLOUD COVER AND POPS
UPWARD ALONG THE COAST...SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH...BEGINNING THU
MORN. THE STORM MAY BE DRAWN TO THE NORTH A BIT ON WED AS A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...
HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES IT ON A COURSE SOUTH OF LATITUDE 25N
INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK.



thanks ivanhater for answering my question psychically in advance :D
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