Tropical Depression 18,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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SkeetoBite
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#81 Postby SkeetoBite » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:48 am

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#82 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:48 am

Thunder44 wrote:Movement at 280 degrees? Moving south of due west?

280 is north of due west, 270 is due west
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#83 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:48 am

TD18 looks like its really getting better organized this morning with a big increase in convection bursting near the center. Overall convection pushing out with a more circular appearance. Looks like TS Rita soon. Expect a W-NW or NW track the next 36 hrs or so and then due west. It'll be interesting to see how much latitude it gains prior to the west turn. With Hurricane watches over the NW Bahamas, I don't doubt its a hurricane by 48 hrs. The long term track is more problematic - this may be an evolving pattern over the next 2-3 days as there are some hints that the elongated strong ridge over SE TX may weaken or retrograde due to a shortwave trough that will move over the SE states around Wednesday. Stay tuned GOM residents.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#84 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:48 am

Thunder44 wrote:Movement at 280 degrees? Moving south of due west?

280 is north of due west, 270 is due west
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#85 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:49 am

Thunder44 wrote:Movement at 280 degrees? Moving WNW now?


No... 280 IS north of west, but it's not WNW.
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#86 Postby LAwxrgal » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:49 am

Ships brings the intensity up to 82 knots, that's about a Category 2...the hits keep coming...
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#87 Postby skysummit » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:50 am

What the heck is the goofy LBAR picking up?
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#88 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:51 am

i think the nhc will move the track north soon
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#89 Postby Lori » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:51 am

:eek: Is this really happening?
Louisiana?
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#90 Postby skysummit » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:52 am

Lori wrote::eek: Is this really happening?
Louisiana?


No, not yet, and hopefully not ever....shhhh.
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#91 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:53 am

ivanhater wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:Movement at 280 degrees? Moving south of due west?

280 is north of due west, 270 is due west


Yep, my mistake. :wink:
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#92 Postby mvtrucking » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:54 am

ROCK wrote:I hear you Eye....This is not the year to drive anything bigger than a 10 speed..... :D


No doubt Rock. Thinking of parking this 18 speed soon :D
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#93 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:56 am

Well with the model runs showing a more N component, TD 18 steadily organizing, warm GOM waters, and a ridge that may not be as strong I will be doing a trial run with my storm panels.....one for wood frame and another for brick frame. Hopefully the ridge will hold strong however a hurricane in the Central GOM mid-week headed W or WNW is to close for comfort.
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#94 Postby Jagno » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:57 am

Lori & Sky; Isn't there a law, constitution of something that prohibits having to evacuate evacuees. I'm near the coast in SW Louisiana by the Texas border and we have spent the last month caring for our neighbors who evacuated New Orleans. I just cannot fathom having to evacuate them again. Please tell #18 that this isn't a good time for us along the N. Gulf Coast. :wink:
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#95 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:58 am

well track certainly needs to change to texas now, my personal opinion is it will hit northern gulf coast, i think right now track needs to be shifted to mid to north texas right now..jmo
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#96 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:59 am

Those models definately pick up on a weakening ridge days 4-5. That doens't sound too good right now for anyone.
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#97 Postby mvtrucking » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:59 am

Lori wrote::eek: Is this really happening?
Louisiana?


What bothers me is,the models seem to be coming into some agreement(I know that they can and will change)
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#98 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:59 am

SkeetoBite wrote:http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL182005mlts.gif


Yuck. :eek: :eek:
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#99 Postby Skyline » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:00 am

Back on topic:

Here we go! Models are turning N. in the Gulf.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
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#100 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:00 am

ivanhater wrote:i think the nhc will move the track north soon


oh yeah, why is that, they have been trending south with the forecast
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