Tropical Depression 18,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Ivanhater
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#101 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:02 am

those model runs remind me of the song "lousiana, there trying to wash us away" :cry: they played that song a lot after katrina
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#102 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:03 am

jlauderdal wrote:
ivanhater wrote:i think the nhc will move the track north soon


oh yeah, why is that, they have been trending south with the forecast


have you been reading or looking at the models? thats why :wink:
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#103 Postby BamaMan » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:04 am

This is starting to give me the creeps for some reason. :eek:
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#104 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:09 am

ivanhater wrote:well track certainly needs to change to texas now, my personal opinion is it will hit northern gulf coast, i think right now track needs to be shifted to mid to north texas right now..jmo


Why?

Read the discussion...There is no hint at a movement to the Texas coast once it becomes under the influence of the High parked over Texas. Show me where there is talk of this High breaking down and then you can say a possible upper "Texas" track.
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#105 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:12 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:well track certainly needs to change to texas now, my personal opinion is it will hit northern gulf coast, i think right now track needs to be shifted to mid to north texas right now..jmo


Why?

Read the discussion...There is no hint at a movement to the Texas coast once it becomes under the influence of the High parked over Texas. Show me where there is talk of this High breaking down and then you can say a possible upper "Texas" track.


look at the models, they are showing a weakness in the ridge, no hint at a movement to texas coast? look at the cone man, texas is in it! dont tell me there is "no hint" at a movement to texas
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#106 Postby skysummit » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:12 am

The evidence of pushing the track to the north Texas coast is in the models...see how they turn to the north at the end.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL182005mlts.gif
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#107 Postby mvtrucking » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:19 am

ivanhater wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:well track certainly needs to change to texas now, my personal opinion is it will hit northern gulf coast, i think right now track needs to be shifted to mid to north texas right now..jmo


Why?

Read the discussion...There is no hint at a movement to the Texas coast once it becomes under the influence of the High parked over Texas. Show me where there is talk of this High breaking down and then you can say a possible upper "Texas" track.


look at the models, they are showing a weakness in the ridge, no hint at a movement to texas coast? look at the cone man, texas is in it! dont tell me there is "no hint" at a movement to texas


No doubt about it. There has to be some chance of a weakness for all these models to even hint at going north.
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#108 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:19 am

The newest model run shows 10 models headed to Upper TX Coast and 3 to NE Mexico and S TX.

I cannot find how to paste the image. Its protected by login and password
Last edited by KatDaddy on Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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#109 Postby skysummit » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:23 am

Ooohhhh cool! I would ask what software are you using to compile these plots, but I'm sure someone else will. :D
Last edited by skysummit on Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#110 Postby krysof » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:26 am

When is the last time Texas was affected, wasn't it Claudette in 2003 as a Category 1 hurricane?


BTW I finally reached 1000 posts and became a hurricane. Woohoo :D
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#111 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:26 am

I just removed the link. I see it did work. Its from a private site so I only left it for a few minutes.

SkySummit can remove the link on your post. The Storm2k Mods will after us.
Last edited by KatDaddy on Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#112 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:26 am

ivanhater wrote:i think the nhc will move the track north soon


I think you are so right, Ivan. Given the huge high in the western Gulf and the climatic inclinations to turn storm northerly (especially this time of year), your sentiments are right on.
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#113 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:27 am

ivanhater wrote:well track certainly needs to change to texas now, my personal opinion is it will hit northern gulf coast, i think right now track needs to be shifted to mid to north texas right now..jmo


Don't expect large changes in TPC's tracks, for every model run that shifts either direction (especially the 6z and 18z runs). Models changes happen many times in the long-range. They like to remain in continuity, to avoid large errors in the track forecast. I wouldn't expect anything more than slight shift north in the next advisory, if that at all..
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#114 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:30 am

Thunder44 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:well track certainly needs to change to texas now, my personal opinion is it will hit northern gulf coast, i think right now track needs to be shifted to mid to north texas right now..jmo


Don't expect large changes in TPC's tracks, for every model run that shifts either direction (especially the 6z and 18z runs). Models changes happen many times in the long-range. They like to remain in continuity, to avoid large errors in the track forecast. I wouldn't expect anything more than slight shift north in the next advisory, if that at all..


Spot on Thunder...
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#115 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 am

No one thought they would shift Katrina's path as far west as they did all at once and yet they did! So who knows!
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#116 Postby dwg71 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:41 am

Look at the global models. They show BOC to Southern TX track.
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#117 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:50 am

Well I like the Shakespearean type wording...haha I'm just insane. I just finished A Midsummer Night's Dream

ANYWAY, we must watch the trough forecasted to dig into SE US by
Wednesday for that northerly turn....
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#118 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:59 am

ivanhater wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
ivanhater wrote:i think the nhc will move the track north soon


oh yeah, why is that, they have been trending south with the forecast


have you been reading or looking at the models? thats why :wink:

yeah i am looking at the same stuff you are looking at and i dont see the track being pushed north for t least the first 72H of the forecast period. what model are you looking at that leads you to believe there is going to be this push north?
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#119 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:00 am

Image
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#120 Postby CocoCreek » Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:02 am

jlauderdal wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
ivanhater wrote:i think the nhc will move the track north soon


oh yeah, why is that, they have been trending south with the forecast


have you been reading or looking at the models? thats why :wink:

yeah i am looking at the same stuff you are looking at and i dont see the track being pushed north for t least the first 72H of the forecast period. what model are you looking at that leads you to believe there is going to be this push north?


With a large high in place, the only thing that would make it tend a little more North would be the strength of the system as it builds a bigger vertical profile in the upper atmosphere...so if it were to rapidly intensify/deepen, that could have a small impact on overall direction.
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