Tropical Depression 18,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[curtadams]

Ok, what’s with that new convection immediately NNW of 17 but E of 18? … or are my eyes playing tricks on me?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's tropical moisture going into a jet shear zone. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html If Philippe hits that he's dead. 30-40 knot shear there.

[oneness]

ah, cheers.

[Coredesat]

Bad news - the 00z GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, and WRF close up that weakness in the ridge within 48 hours:

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

[southerngale]

Bad news for who?

[Windy]

I like how the Canadian model turns Phillipe into Cthulhu in a week.

[Deb321]

Bad news - the 00z GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, and WRF close up that weakness in the ridge within 48 hours:

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

Since I am not good with understanding all these graphs, maps ect. what does that mean ?

[Coredesat]

Bad news for who?

Too early to tell yet. If the ridge closes up, there's less of a chance of TD18 (or Philippe) being a fish unless another trough creates another weakness in the ridge.

[Recurve]

Just a general explanation: Weakness in the ridge is where the storm could go toward. If it fills, the storm would be blocked from going northeast and forced more westward.

[Deb321]

Just a general explanation: Weakness in the ridge is where the storm could go toward. If it fills, the storm would be blocked from going northeast and forced more westward.

Ok thanks

[Nimbus]

Cycloneye wrote:

After going down in recent days it looks like the price of a barrel of oil will go up again as this system enters the gulf.

I was lurking over in the CIA usenet area and they were talking about oil breaking through the 63 dollars a barrel support level post labor day.

The human tragedy of another major in the gulf is bad enough but apparently there are even international implications with this storm.

When they start bringing in kang and kodos to do weather forecasting you know it's serious.

[Ivanhater]

ok, new gfdl run, starts to turn it north to lousiana at the end of the run, its been back and forth on this scenario, bam keeps it on a wnw to nw course also, it is very early on and things will change often, but this is one i dont feel good about for us gommers

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 21.7N 71.2W...OR
ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM... NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
AND ABOUT 455 MILES... 730 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU...AT
18/0900 UTC MOVING W 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN IMPROVING AND STRENGTHENING.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
66W-71W. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE DEPRESSION THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HRS AND IT IS ADVISED THAT ALL
INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA REMAIN ABREAST OF
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WWD TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...S FLORIDA...AND CUBA THROUGH MID-WEEK.


8 AM Discussion.

[SouthFLTropics]

I sure wish the satellite people would reposition the floater over TD 18 and off of Ophelia...I know Santa Claus at the North Pole and some people in Canada wouldn't be happy about that because they are still watching Ophy but I know many of us would like to have all our eyes on 18...

[skysummit]

I sure wish the satellite people would reposition the floater over TD 18 and off of Ophelia...I know Santa Claus at the North Pole and some people in Canada wouldn't be happy about that because they are still watching Ophy but I know many of us would like to have all our eyes on 18...

Just use the NASA site and position it where ever you like

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[KatDaddy]

Very interesting days ahead for the NW GOM. I thought the GFDL was an old run but see its very new...about an hour old.

Our time along the Upper TX Coast free from a major hurricane may dwindling.

I have access to complete model map from ImpactWeather however its a private site and I cannot post the image at Storm2k

6 models say Mid to Upper TX Coast and 5 say NE Mexico. Will the ridge stay strong and strengthen or weaken?? That is the all important question.

HOU-GAL AFD from earlier. Now the GFDL has it headed straight for Upper TX Coast.

THIS MORNINGS GFS THROWS A CURVEBALL INTO THE
EQUATION. IT ALLOWS WHAT IS NOW TD 18 (AND EVENTUALLY FCST TO BE A
HURRICANE) TO TAKE A MORE WNW TRACK AFTER IT PASSES 90W AS THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST. IT IS SHOWING A
LANDFALL NEAR BROWNSVILLE EARLY SATURDAY AND UP INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY SUNDAY.

[SouthFLTropics]

Thanks for the tip skysummit...

[skysummit]

Very interesting days ahead for the NW GOM. I thought the GFDL was an old run but see its very new...about an hour old.

Our time along the Upper TX Coast free from a major hurricane may dwindling.

I have access to complete model map from ImpactWeather however its a private site and I cannot post the image at Storm2k

6 models say Mid to Upper TX Coast and 5 say NE Mexico. Will the ridge stay strong and strengthen or weaken?? That is the all important question.

HOU-GAL AFD from earlier. Now the GFDL has it headed straight for Upper TX Coast.

THIS MORNINGS GFS THROWS A CURVEBALL INTO THE
EQUATION. IT ALLOWS WHAT IS NOW TD 18 (AND EVENTUALLY FCST TO BE A
HURRICANE) TO TAKE A MORE WNW TRACK AFTER IT PASSES 90W AS THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST. IT IS SHOWING A
LANDFALL NEAR BROWNSVILLE EARLY SATURDAY AND UP INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY SUNDAY.

Yup....you guys are definately due for one. It may be your turn? I'd definately not weed out the possibility

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN (AL182005) ON 20050918 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050918 1200 050919 0000 050919 1200 050920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.8N 71.7W 22.6N 73.3W 23.2N 75.0W 23.6N 76.9W
BAMM 21.8N 71.7W 22.5N 73.3W 22.9N 75.0W 23.3N 76.7W
A98E 21.8N 71.7W 22.2N 73.7W 22.8N 75.6W 23.5N 77.7W
LBAR 21.8N 71.7W 22.6N 73.4W 23.3N 74.9W 23.9N 76.1W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050920 1200 050921 1200 050922 1200 050923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.0N 79.0W 24.8N 83.2W 25.6N 86.3W 26.9N 89.2W
BAMM 23.7N 78.6W 24.6N 82.4W 25.7N 85.8W 27.1N 89.5W
A98E 24.2N 80.1W 24.8N 84.7W 25.2N 88.1W 26.5N 90.4W
LBAR 24.2N 77.4W 24.7N 78.8W 25.5N 79.5W 27.8N 79.8W
SHIP 64KTS 77KTS 82KTS 82KTS
DSHP 64KTS 77KTS 82KTS 82KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 71.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 21.3N LONM12 = 69.9W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 21.2N LONM24 = 67.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z Models.

[Ivanhater]

all north of forecast track

[Thunder44]

Movement at 280 degrees? Moving WNW now?