Tropical Depression 18,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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JTD
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#141 Postby JTD » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:56 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
jason0509 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Well I like the Shakespearean type wording...haha I'm just insane. I just finished A Midsummer Night's Dream

ANYWAY, we must watch the trough forecasted to dig into SE US by
Wednesday for that northerly turn....


A trough would tear the system apart right apart from the effect that it has on track?


Wait I thought a trough pulls a system northward...or weakens the ridge and that allows northerly motion...??


TBH,

Oh yes you are absolutely right. A trough would turn the system northward. I was going off in another direction with my post. The trough off Texas knocked Katrina down from cat 5 to cat 4 and the trough that picked Ivan up last year knocked it down from a cat 4 to minimal 3 so my point is that troughs tend to have a very negative impact on storm intensity?

At least I always thought that was true.
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#142 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:56 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
ivanhater wrote:Mobile/Pensacola AFD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST FOR WED AND BEYOND WILL BE HIGHLY AFFECTED BY THE EVENTUAL
PATH OF TD-18...SOON TO BE TROPICAL STORM RITA. BY EARLY WED IT
SHOULD HAVE PASSED WEST OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND EMERGED INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH NHC FORECASTING IT TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
HURRICANE BY THAT TIME. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND CLOUD COVER AND POPS
UPWARD ALONG THE COAST...SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH...BEGINNING THU
MORN. THE STORM MAY BE DRAWN TO THE NORTH A BIT ON WED AS A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...
HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES IT ON A COURSE SOUTH OF LATITUDE 25N
INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK.



thanks ivanhater for answering my question psychically in advance :D



lol
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#143 Postby Myersgirl » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:57 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:will there be a 2:00 advisory on td 18?

It will be posted in the stickey above
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#144 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:01 pm

Looks like the center of TD18 (Rita?) is about 50 miles N-NE of the NHC 11 AM position. Based on this re-location of the center, I would expect a northward track adjustment at 5PM, assuming that the originally forecasted track remains the same. This would put the landfall somewhere in the Upper Keys in about 48-60 hours. Of course, 2-3 days out there could still be some adjustment so SE FL is certainly not out of the woods by any means.
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#145 Postby Canelaw99 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:04 pm

Based on this from the 2 pm advisory "ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND FOR CUBA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT", it seems that the NHC is inclined to agree with ya ron....off to the gas station :)
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#146 Postby dwg71 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:04 pm

ronjon wrote:Looks like the center of TD18 (Rita?) is about 50 miles N-NE of the NHC 11 AM position. Based on this re-location of the center, I would expect a northward track adjustment at 5PM, assuming that the originally forecasted track remains the same. This would put the landfall somewhere in the Upper Keys in about 48-60 hours. Of course, 2-3 days out there could still be some adjustment so SE FL is certainly not out of the woods by any means.


Actually the 1PM coordinates are .1S and .2W or WSW..
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#147 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:05 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:Based on this from the 2 pm advisory "ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND FOR CUBA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT", it seems that the NHC is inclined to agree with ya ron....off to the gas station :)


also based on the 2pm advisory, the center is further south located at 21.9N where it was at 22.0N at 11am. Interesting.

<RICKY>
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#148 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:11 pm

ronjon wrote:Looks like the center of TD18 (Rita?) is about 50 miles N-NE of the NHC 11 AM position. Based on this re-location of the center, I would expect a northward track adjustment at 5PM, assuming that the originally forecasted track remains the same. This would put the landfall somewhere in the Upper Keys in about 48-60 hours. Of course, 2-3 days out there could still be some adjustment so SE FL is certainly not out of the woods by any means.


Are you sure? I thought that the center was at 22.0 at 11 and now it is at 21.9 I think. That would make the center south not north. Correct me If I am wrong.
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#149 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:12 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:
ronjon wrote:Looks like the center of TD18 (Rita?) is about 50 miles N-NE of the NHC 11 AM position. Based on this re-location of the center, I would expect a northward track adjustment at 5PM, assuming that the originally forecasted track remains the same. This would put the landfall somewhere in the Upper Keys in about 48-60 hours. Of course, 2-3 days out there could still be some adjustment so SE FL is certainly not out of the woods by any means.


Are you sure? I thought that the center was at 22.0 at 11 and now it is at 21.9 I think. That would make the center south not north. Correct me If I am wrong.


nope your not wrong. that would be good for us but unfortunately not for the Keys.

<RICKY>
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#150 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:14 pm

ronjon wrote:Looks like the center of TD18 (Rita?) is about 50 miles N-NE of the NHC 11 AM position. Based on this re-location of the center, I would expect a northward track adjustment at 5PM, assuming that the originally forecasted track remains the same. This would put the landfall somewhere in the Upper Keys in about 48-60 hours. Of course, 2-3 days out there could still be some adjustment so SE FL is certainly not out of the woods by any means.


Are you sure? I thought that the center was at 22.0 at 11 and now it is at 21.9 I think. That would make the center south not north. Correct me If I am wrong.
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#151 Postby EDR1222 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:17 pm

On the last few satellite loops, it sure looks like it is getting much better organized unless my eyes are playing tricks on me.
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#152 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:21 pm

Based on the sats alone, I think they might have upgraded earlier this morning. It looks very well organized for a TD.
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#153 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:24 pm

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro ... OUS42.KNHC

At link above is the many missions that the squadron will have on TD18/Rita including the Gulfstream jet which flys very high to sample the upper enviroment that will be factored into the models input.
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#154 Postby tailgater » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:29 pm

I'm gonna have to disagree with that FIX on the center at 2pm, if it's based on sat imagery. Not to be nick picking but it sure looks to closer to 22.3n 72.2 w to me.
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#155 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:31 pm

tailgater wrote:I'm gonna have to disagree with that FIX on the center at 2pm, if it's based on sat imagery. Not to be nick picking but it sure looks to closer to 22.3n 72.2 w to me.


i agree, i cant even see a llc at 21.9
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#156 Postby Scorpion » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:31 pm

Looks north of the forecast points.
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#157 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:31 pm

there is a nice MLC around 23.5N...the LLC is or was around 22N...but, you can see on the zoomed in shot that the LLC is migrating north to meet with the MLC...thats largely due to the southerly shear....
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#158 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:32 pm

tailgater wrote:I'm gonna have to disagree with that FIX on the center at 2pm, if it's based on sat imagery. Not to be nick picking but it sure looks to closer to 22.3n 72.2 w to me.


the center fix was from the hurricane hunters and you can also vaguely see it on a very close up zoom on visible imagery. however I think ncweatherwizard forecaster guy said that a new LLC could be forming further north where some of us think it will near about 22.3 or 22.4N. Its complicated but we are gonna have to wait and see if the center does indeed reform further north as the NHC thinks it could per 11am discussion.

<RICKY>
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#159 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:34 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:
ronjon wrote:Looks like the center of TD18 (Rita?) is about 50 miles N-NE of the NHC 11 AM position. Based on this re-location of the center, I would expect a northward track adjustment at 5PM, assuming that the originally forecasted track remains the same. This would put the landfall somewhere in the Upper Keys in about 48-60 hours. Of course, 2-3 days out there could still be some adjustment so SE FL is certainly not out of the woods by any means.


Are you sure? I thought that the center was at 22.0 at 11 and now it is at 21.9 I think. That would make the center south not north. Correct me If I am wrong.


My re-location is based on the VIS SAT alone - what I may be seeing is a MLC north of the LLC. It seems likely that the LLC will reform (migrate) northward under the MLC or else we'll have a very disorganized system. In fact, the NHC mentioned this possibility in their 11 AM disc.

THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR COULD BE FORCING SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND IN FACT IT COULD ALREADY BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE ADVISORY
POSITION.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#160 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:34 pm

thats why, i think the winds are fairly weak....the LLC is either moving north to meet up and couple with the MLC or the is a new one forming under the mlc....
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