Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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cycloneye
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Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:29 pm

WTNT21 KNHC 180227
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND IN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 69.7W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 69.7W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 69.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.1N 73.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.6N 75.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 77.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 69.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Sep 26, 2005 5:02 am, edited 83 times in total.
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#2 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:33 pm

Excuse the mess... :lol:

Image
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:34 pm

Dont worrie Brent too much in the plate now. :)
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#4 Postby Andrew92 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:35 pm

Way back when, I wrote in another thread:

I have at times over the past few years envisioned a storm named Rita for some odd reason. And almost every time I envision it, it's a GOM hurricane!


Am I going to nail this?! As HurricaneGirl would say, Holy Crap!!! :eek:

I also had a similar feeling for several years after 1998 that Ivan would be a big one in 2004.

-Andrew92
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#5 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...THE EIGHTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE YEAR FORMS TO THE EAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND IN CENRTAL AND WESTERN CUBA CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#6 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:41 pm

It's fixed now... the header was wrong or something(replacing Ophelia)

Image
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#7 Postby nequad » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:42 pm

Holy crap! :lol:

When this season is over I think we'll all be singing...

"What a loooooooooooooooong strange trip it's been"
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#8 Postby Canelaw99 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:44 pm

Er, Brent - that tracking map you put up is for Phillipe, not TD 18 :)
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#9 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:45 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:Er, Brent - that tracking map you put up is for Phillipe, not TD 18 :)


Not here... :wink:

Something was screwy... first it showed TD 18's track over Ophelia's, and now it's fixed.
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#10 Postby Canelaw99 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:47 pm

Hmmm....strange - the map that comes up for me on your post says TS Phillipe....must be AOL then - it'll refresh eventually :)
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#11 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:49 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:Hmmm....strange - the map that comes up for me on your post says TS Phillipe....must be AOL then - it'll refresh eventually :)


http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... 8_5day.gif

Or for a closeup:

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518.gif
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#12 Postby Jono » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:49 pm

Damn I know its early, but I'm not liking that track one bit.
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#13 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:51 pm

Ouch!

25N 90W 80KTS!

Ominous Indeed
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#14 Postby Windy » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:53 pm

LOL, whoever is running the NHC website put the Ophelia template up for TD 18. Unless, of course, they're going to name TD 18 Ophelia, too... :lol:
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#15 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:53 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Ouch!

25N 90W 80KTS!

Ominous Indeed


Oy vey. :cry:
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#16 Postby Portastorm » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:54 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Ouch!

25N 90W 80KTS!

Ominous Indeed


Dang it Kat ... you jinxed us with your "Texas is off the hook" thread!

:roll:
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#17 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:55 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Ouch!

25N 90W 80KTS!

Ominous Indeed


I'll go on a limb and say that's low... very low. I think this will be a major.
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#18 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:56 pm

Windy wrote:LOL, whoever is running the NHC website put the Ophelia template up for TD 18. Unless, of course, they're going to name TD 18 Ophelia, too... :lol:


I'm completely confused... something is really messed up. :lol: The place I get the advisories from has TD 17 and Philippe as two different storms. :roll:
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#19 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:58 pm

They are having a hard time there page is messed up.
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#20 Postby Andrew92 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:58 pm

Brent wrote:
Windy wrote:LOL, whoever is running the NHC website put the Ophelia template up for TD 18. Unless, of course, they're going to name TD 18 Ophelia, too... :lol:


I'm completely confused... something is really messed up. :lol: The place I get the advisories from has TD 17 and Philippe as two different storms. :roll:


Personally, I'm blaming it on Ophelia, even though I've already bidden her good riddance.

-Andrew92
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