Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[cycloneye]

TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND A VERY
IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION... BUT DID RECENTLY MEASURE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005
MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KT... WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY... SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM WELL TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAVE INDICATED WINDS OF 30-35 KT
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE DATA... COMBINED WITH DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO A
TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS. THE LACK OF WIND NEAR THE CENTER
IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ARE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH... DUE TO
SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF ORGANIZING. IT HAS A
FAIRLY LARGE CIRCULATION AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION WITH
TOPS COLDER THAN -70C... AND WHILE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE SHEAR... IT IS BECOMING WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE REMAINING THREE QUADRANTS. SINCE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO
BUILD IN ITS PLACE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. WHILE THE GFDL STILL DOES NOT
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT UNTIL RITA REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECAST OF 64 KT BY 48 HOURS SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ANTICIPATING A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ONCE THE STORM REACHES THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST MOTION ARE COMPLICATED BY THE ASYMMETRIC
CLOUD PATTERN...WHICH SEEM TO WANT TO DRAG THE SYSTEM NORTH OF A
DUE WEST TRACK...WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS TRYING TO FORCE THE SYSTEM DUE WESTWARD. THESE FACTORS
WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR
RELAXES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN TAKING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...IN SOME CASES SOUTH OF DUE
WEST...TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SINCE IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE CENTER
WILL REFORM FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 22.2N 72.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 22.6N 74.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 23.2N 77.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 23.5N 79.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 23.5N 82.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 23.5N 87.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 24.0N 91.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 25.5N 95.0W 95 KT

[mvtrucking]

With all the models pointing to the gulf after intializing
with the recon, this is a gulf storm.Mainland Florida sees nada.(Thats a good thing)

Mainland Florida sees nada? Not a good thing to say at this point.

Sorry I will rephrase that. I pray that mainland Florida sees nada.

[Scorpion]

I don't understand the forecast track. The storm is well north of the track. The southern edge is right on the forecast track. If it keeps going like this mainland FL will see this system.

[deltadog03]

the disco on the mlc and llc is pretty good...the llc has been moving northward towards the MLC....once they couple then its off to the races....so, i would expect the llc to continue to move north towards the mlc

[Scorpion]

NHC center is WELL south of where it looks to be on IR. On IR it looks very close to 24 N.

[Blown Away]

I know it's better to be safe than sorry! If there is pretty high confidence the storm is going near or S of Keys why have a watch for the NW Bahamas? If they were concerned then the hurricane watch would have been extended through N Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties.

[dixiebreeze]

It's way to early to say where this system will end up. I find it hilarious how people say. "all clear" and "not coming here". Remember ophelia people Everyone in the GOM needs to watch.

Exactly Rainband! Remember how the track changed with Katrina, how she dipped farther south across Florida than predicted, and eventually went farther NW than expected.

The track and models for Rita will change considerably before all is said and done.

[ericinmia]

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SINCE IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE CENTER
WILL REFORM FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

Knabb just fell a few notches on my respect-o-meter.

He is favoring old forecast data based on poorly fed models? He isn't analyzing the models initializations versus where the storm is now? He issues a forecast based primarily on this?

Now another forecaster is going to have to come and fix this in the comming releases to some degree or other. The center is poorly defined, by the split mid and low, but he needs to stay more on that path... and why he would move the track south when obviously it will be moved north to some degree or another in the next few advisories is beyond me.

at a loss...
-Eric

[Rainband]

I just want some rain it has been dry here. Hopefully it gets near enough for that

[CHRISTY]

maybe rita comes in a little north of what there saying???opinions!

[TampaFl]

NHC center is WELL south of where it looks to be on IR. On IR it looks very close to 24 N.

Agree Scorpion and also appears to be moving more wnw than w.

Robert

[jkt21787]

It's way to early to say where this system will end up. I find it hilarious how people say. "all clear" and "not coming here". Remember ophelia people Everyone in the GOM needs to watch.

Exactly Rainband! Remember how the track changed with Katrina, how she dipped farther south across Florida than predicted, and eventually went farther NW than expected.

The track and models for Rita will change considerably before all is said and done.

Possibly, but I don't see the ridge falling apart to where it could possibly hit FL or anywhere East of NOLA.

Everybody needs to watch it, but there is no reason to discredit the TX/Mexico scenario. I doubt the models every shift off of one of those locations.

I still remember when NHC shifted the track of Katrina to NOLA/MS everybody was saying it will change again and shift back east, it never happened. For all we know, the models now have it perfectly and won't change until landfall.

BUT, they could be off and could change greatly. Again though, I don't see anything drastic enough to shift it east of NOLA and especially for mainland FL (other than its first passing in a couple of days).

[TampaFl]

I just want some rain it has been dry here. Hopefully it gets near enough for that

Agree with you Rainband, we are "bone dry" here also. Rita hopefully will bring us some much needed rainfall.

Robert

[Vortex]

Most of the 12z models are already 35-120 miles to far south. I agree with the steering mechanism based on the synoptic set-up. However, 100 miles will make a huge difference in this case when it nears Florida and the Keys. If one analyzes the last 6 hours positioning the center has moved wnw/nw. Again given its close proximity in 48 hours it's postion now is critical and folks in S. Fl stay vigilant. This overally cloud pattern/system has consistently been moving wnw throughout the day. In addition Historical data over the last 100+ in 85% of cases have a system in this area either moving over the Keys,Fl,E.Seaboard, or up the coast. My point is this one 48 hours out is not set in stone unlike some.

[jkt21787]

NHC center is WELL south of where it looks to be on IR. On IR it looks very close to 24 N.

Agree Scorpion and also appears to be moving more wnw than w.

Robert

Why are we looking at a satellite?

Recon fixed the center. The convection is displaced because of shear. If it reforms, then some of these points could be a bit more valid, but right now its not.

[dixiebreeze]

Most of the 12z models are already 35-120 miles to far south. I agree with the steering mechanism based on the synoptic set-up. However, 100 miles will make a huge difference in this case when it nears Florida and the Keys. If one analyzes the last 6 hours positioning the center has moved wnw/nw. Again given its close proximity in 48 hours it's postion now is critical and folks in S. Fl stay vigilant. This overally cloud pattern/system has consistently been moving wnw throughout the day. In addition Historical data over the last 100+ in 85% of cases have a system in this area either moving over the Keys,Fl,E.Seaboard, or up the coast. My point is this one 48 hours out is not set in stone unlike some.

Agree Vortex. It would be dangerously naive to think the present tracks are "set in stone."

[Rainband]

Was just looking a the water vapor and I see why they are forecasting it to stay south of us but like I have said, things change very fast in the tropics..so I will keep half an eye open on this one

[jkt21787]

Most of the 12z models are already 35-120 miles to far south. I agree with the steering mechanism based on the synoptic set-up. However, 100 miles will make a huge difference in this case when it nears Florida and the Keys. If one analyzes the last 6 hours positioning the center has moved wnw/nw. Again given its close proximity in 48 hours it's postion now is critical and folks in S. Fl stay vigilant. This overally cloud pattern/system has consistently been moving wnw throughout the day. In addition Historical data over the last 100+ in 85% of cases have a system in this area either moving over the Keys,Fl,E.Seaboard, or up the coast. My point is this one 48 hours out is not set in stone unlike some.

Hopefully you aren't suggesting an eastern seaboard or up the coast scenario. Otherwise I'd have to point you to a surface map and show you the ridge!

The Keys and S.FL option are of a high possibility at this time, hence the current watches. Any center relocation will be critical to whether its a Keys storm or a S. FL storm.

[gatorcane]

I think the NHC is too far south on this one...probably should have kept the track the same as the 11am.

[hicksta]

Where are the models showing?