Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[HurricaneQueen]

I just get an "x" in the upper left corner of a big box. (refrring to Brent's post)

[Brent]

Hehe... we're getting off-topic, but when the TD 18 advisory first came out, it was in the same place as Ophelia's advisory.

[cycloneye]

Brent they are really busy now with 3 in the EPAC and 2 in the atlantic with another prospect at wave in east atlantic.Dont expect the 10:30 PM TWO soon as it will be the last product going out tonight.

[Brent]

Brent they are really busy now with 3 in the EPAC and 2 in the atlantic with another prospect at wave in east atlantic.Dont expect the 10:30 PM TWO soon as it will be the last product going out tonight.

I don't care about the TWO now... with 96L now TD 18.

Where's Phillippe's Public Advisory? They are REALLY behind.

[SkeetoBite]

LOL, whoever is running the NHC website put the Ophelia template up for TD 18. Unless, of course, they're going to name TD 18 Ophelia, too...

I'm completely confused... something is really messed up. The place I get the advisories from has TD 17 and Philippe as two different storms.

NHC mixed up the AWIPS identifiers, the fixes are coming through now. It was a real comedy show on TWC a minute ago! I laughed so hard....

Everyones favorite site(s) should be corrected within 10 minutes or less as they get the corrected data from NHC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If more form they will need to call the whole team in.

[jkt21787]

Hehe... we're getting off-topic, but when the TD 18 advisory first came out, it was in the same place as Ophelia's advisory.

Yeah, NHC accidentally sent it out with the wrong AWIPS header, the header used for Ophelia (AT1) instead of AT3 which this will use. Thats why all the maps and such looked way off originally. They fixed it though.

[Swimdude]

Ouch!

25N 90W 80KTS!

Ominous Indeed

I'll go on a limb and say that's low... very low. I think this will be a major.

Yup, this one will be a major, i'm almost certain. Nothing is stopping it as of now. Here we go again.

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEARBY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS HAS
ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT FROM TAFB AND EARLIER SHIP
REPORTS. BANDING HAS INCREASED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
SEVERAL MODERATE CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AROUND
THE SURFACE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. TD-18 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST BUILDS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FILLING RDIGE WEAKNESS IS
UNCERTAIN AND THAT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE MOVES
BEFORE IT TURNS WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL KEEP
THE SYSTEM OVER OR SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. ONLY THE CANADIAN
MODEL AND THE TIGHTLY PACKED BAM MODELS BRING THE STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 60-72 HOURS. SINCE THE
DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CIRCULATION CENTER
COULD EASILY DEVELOP ANY WHERE WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS...
WHICH COULD RESULT IN NORTH-SOUTH SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST TRACK
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS...SOUTH
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE OF A CHALLENGE THAN THE TRACK
FORECAST IS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE 36-60 HOUR TIME FRAME...WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER
30C AND WARMER SSTS. THIS WOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR DOES NOT GET ENTRAINED INTO THE CENTER. AFTERWARDS...
THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL GRADUALLY INCREASES THE
WESTERLY SHEAR TO MORE THAN 20 KT AND LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AT
73 KT. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A
200 MB ANTICYCLONE WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS BY 48 HOURS. EVEN THE GFS DEVELOPS A
SIMILAR UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SUCH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE MUCH
STRONGER BY 72 HOURS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE SHIPS
MODEL. THE 18Z GFDL MODEL RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM INTO A
120-KT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. WHILE THAT RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
MAY BE A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...THIS SYSTEM REACHING STRONG CATEGORY 2
STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS IS CERTAINLY A VIABLE SCENARIO.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 22.0N 69.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 22.5N 71.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 23.1N 73.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 23.6N 75.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 77.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 90.5W 80 KT

[Windy]

It seems the only way this can turn out well for the CONUS is if it hits Mexico. GOMEX is a freakin' bathtub right now.

[Brent]

It seems the only way this can turn out well for the CONUS is if it hits Mexico. GOMEX is a freakin' bathtub right now.

Well... there is the little islands called the Keys.

[Windy]

Awww, to me, the Keys are part of the CONUS.

[beachbum_al]

See I go celebrate my baby's birthday and see what I get. I come back to one named storm and a new depression.

[f5]

It seems the only way this can turn out well for the CONUS is if it hits Mexico. GOMEX is a freakin' bathtub right now.

Well... there is the little islands called the Keys.

the 1935 Labor day hurricane started out puny near flordia so did Katrina they were both ignored for awhile today they are both legends beacuse of the catastrophie they left behind.

[Scorpion]

Dammit I leave for 6 hours I come back another TD has formed.

[T'Bonz]

THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SUCH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE MUCH STRONGER BY 72 HOURS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE 18Z GFDL MODEL RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM INTO A
120-KT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. WHILE THAT RATE OF INTENSIFICATION MAY BE A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...THIS SYSTEM REACHING STRONG CATEGORY 2 STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS IS CERTAINLY A VIABLE SCENARIO.

You're got to be kidding me. There isn't enough time for it to be a cat 4, is there?

Gads. Tomorrow will get to be nuts around here.

[Brent]

You're got to be kidding me. There isn't enough time for it to be a cat 4, is there?

If the conditions are right, yes.

[T'Bonz]

But it's not even named yet! And it would hit approximately Tuesday morning very early.

[jkt21787]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 180543
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...FIRST RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE SYSTEM SHORTLY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM... NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT HAD BEEN SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE HAS BEEN DIVERTED AND WILL
BE REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN SHORTLY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N... 70.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[JamesFromMaine2]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 180842
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...DEPRESSION ORGANIZING EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES... 25 KM... NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND ABOUT
455 MILES... 730 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. A
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...21.7 N... 71.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$