Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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Raebie
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#1021 Postby Raebie » Fri Sep 23, 2005 7:17 am

Isn't there a 7 am advisory?
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Stratosphere747
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#1022 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 7:24 am

Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 23a

Statement as of 7:00 am CDT on September 23, 2005


...Extremely dangerous category four Hurricane Rita continues toward
the southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts...


a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port O'Connor Texas to Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southeastern coast of
Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River
including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain...and
from south of Port O'Connor to Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Some portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning in Texas could be discontinued later
today.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 7 am CDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 27.1 north...longitude 91.5 west or about 260 miles
southeast of Galveston Texas and about 220 miles south-southeast of
Cameron Louisiana.


Rita is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this
track...the core of Rita will be approaching the southwest
Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts late today or tonight.


Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Rita
is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected
during the next 24 hours.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles.


The minimum central pressure just estimated from Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft data was 930 mb...27.46 inches.


Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Tides are currently running about 2 feet above normal along the
Louisiana...Mississippi and Alabama coasts in the areas affected by
Katrina. Tides in those areas will increase to 3 to 5 feet and be
accompanied by large waves...and residents there could experience
coastal flooding. Large swells generated by Rita will likely affect
most portions of the Gulf Coast.


Rita is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12
inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over
southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana as it moves inland.
Since Rita is forecast to slow down significantly after making
landfall...total accumulations in excess of 25 inches are possible
over the next several days across eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. In addition...rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are
possible over southeastern Louisiana including metropolitan New
Orleans.


Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of southeastern
Texas and southern Louisiana.


Repeating the 7 am CDT position...27.1 N... 91.5 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 930 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
10 am CDT.


Forecaster Avila
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#1023 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 9:50 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...RITA A LITTLE WEAKER...STILL A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PORT
ARANSAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS AT THE BORDER OF CATEGORY FOUR AND THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...27.4 N... 91.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#1024 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 9:51 am

HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
1500Z FRI SEP 23 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PORT
ARANSAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 91.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 250SE 250SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 91.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 91.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 28.3N 93.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.0N 94.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.5N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 91.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA
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#1025 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 9:54 am

Image
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#1026 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 9:55 am

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

RITA HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE EYE IS NOT AS DISTINCT AND
THE CONVECTION IS NOT AS INTENSE AS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WHICH HAS RISEN TO AROUND 927 MB AND
WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN
TO 115 KNOTS. UNLESS ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE OCCURS THAT COULD BRING
THE WINDS TEMPORARILY UP A LITTLE BIT...THE OVERALL TENDENCY IS FOR
RITA TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. SO FAR THE PASSAGE OF RITA OVER THE WARM
EDDY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...RESEARCH SUGGESTS THERE IS A LAG IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
RESPONSE. NEVERTHERLESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS
CATEGORY 3 OR...A LITTLE LESS LIKELY...CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY.

UPPER-AIR DATA SHOWS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTROLLING THE
MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY NORTH AND EAST OF RITA AND IS
CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE. CONSEQUENTLY...RITA HAS TURNED
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING 310 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR THE
UPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE
INLAND...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND RITA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS. RITA BY THEN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

RITA IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD A GREAT DISTANCE. A SOND DROPPED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE MEASURED 56 KNOTS SURFACE WINDS ABOUT 120 N MI WEST OF THE
EYE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 27.4N 91.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 28.3N 93.1W 115 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 30.0N 94.2W 100 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/0000Z 31.5N 95.0W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/1200Z 33.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND
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#1027 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:58 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...RITA ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. A FURTHER SLOW WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT
RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES. AN ELEVATED PLATFORM ON ISLE DENIERES NEAR THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 58
MPH.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...27.8 N... 92.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#1028 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:39 pm

HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
2100Z FRI SEP 23 2005

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS
HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TO PORT ARANSAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 92.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 300SE 250SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 92.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 92.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.8N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 70NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 92.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA
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#1029 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS
HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TO PORT ARKANSAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA. AN ELEVATED
STATION AT MARSH ISLAND LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 59 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 78 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 25
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS
INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N... 92.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#1030 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:41 pm

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

THE WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF. IT APPEARS THAT THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES HAVE BEEN THE DOMINANT FACTOR...AS
USUAL...IN CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS OF RITA. FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT 110 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED A LITTLE SUGGESTING STRONGER WINDS BUT I RATHER WAIT FOR
THESE NUMBERS TO PERSIST. ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST
BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN. THIS IS NOT A VERY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND IN FACT...RITA IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA SHOULD REACH THE UPPER TEXAS/SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FOREAST TO COLLAPSE AND A WEAKENED RITA COULD
MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 28.2N 92.6W 110 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.7W 105 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 30.8N 94.5W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/0600Z 32.5N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
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#1031 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2005 8:53 pm

WTNT33 KNHC 240100
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA APPROACHES...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL... BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY
IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM CDT POSITION...28.7 N... 93.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#1032 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 9:51 pm

HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0300Z SAT SEP 24 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN... AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS
TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 93.2W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..375NE 300SE 275SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 93.2W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 92.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.4N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.8N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 93.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#1033 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2005 9:51 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA JUST A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL NEAR
THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BATTERING SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN... AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS
TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90
KM... SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR
TO LANDFALL. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER RITA MOVES
INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. A WIND GUST TO 74 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
AT LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

SINCE RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS
AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25
INCHES COULD OCCUR OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...29.1 N... 93.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CDT AND 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#1034 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:00 pm

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS HOVERING NEAR 930 MB THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAD
STILL BEEN 120-125 KT. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SLIDELL
LOUISIANA...LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA...AND HOUSTON TEXAS STILL DEPICT
A WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT IS JUST A FEW HOURS FROM REACHING THE
COASTLINE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. THE EYEWALL REMAINS
INTACT AND INTENSE... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE... WITH
A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 20 N MI... SURROUNDED BY DENSE
AND WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BANDING. VELOCITIES FROM THE RADARS
SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF MUCH AND SUPPORT
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 105 KT. RITA REMAINS A FORMIDABLE MAJOR
HURRICANE... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS IT HAS OVER WATER... SO RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE BACK IN THE SYSTEM SHORTLY.

RITA IS APPROACHING THE COAST ALONG A SLIGHTLY WOBBLY HEADING OF 325
DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS... JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. ASIDE FROM THE COMMONLY OBSERVED
WOBBLES... THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL... FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. BEYOND THEN... THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OF A
STALL OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... AS RITA
WILL LIKELY BECOME TRAPPED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO ITS EAST
AND WEST. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
WELL INLAND AND FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 29.1N 93.2W 105 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 85 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/0000Z 31.4N 94.5W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/1200Z 32.8N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 29/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
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#1035 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:15 pm

ZCZC MIATCEAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

AT 11 PM CDT...0400Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN

$$
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#1036 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:55 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
MIDNIGHT CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA WOBBLING TOWARD LANDFALL NEAR THE
LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BATTERING
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN... AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS
TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT MIDNIGHT CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH WITH A GUST TO 83 MPH...WHILE AN
AUTOMATED STATION AT CALCASIEU PASS LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A
GUST OF 98 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

SINCE RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS
AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25
INCHES COULD OCCUR OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI.

REPEATING THE MIDNIGHT CDT POSITION...29.2 N... 93.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 934 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#1037 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:48 am

Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on September 24, 2005


...Rita moves onshore near Sabine Pass as a dangerous category three
hurricane...currently near Port Arthur Texas...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Sargent Texas to Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have
already been completed.

At 4 am CDT...0900z...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued
south of Port O'Connor Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect for the southeastern coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City
to the mouth of the Pearl River... including metropolitan New
Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain...and from south of Sargent Texas to
Port O'Connor Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical
storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 4 am CDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 29.9 north...longitude 93.9 west or near Port Arthur
Texas.

Rita is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph. A gradual turn
toward the north and a decrease in forward motion is expected
during the next 24 hours. This motion should bring the center of
Rita farther inland over southeastern Texas today.

Reports from Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft and
National Weather Service Doppler radars indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 120 mph...with higher gusts. This makes
Rita a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Rita
should weaken today as the center moves farther inland.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles. An instrumented tower in Port Arthur run by the
Florida coastal monitoring program has just reported sustained
winds of 91 mph with a gust to 116 mph.

The minimum central pressure measured by the hurricane hunters just
before landfall was 937 mb...27.67 inches. The automated station
at sea rim State Park Texas recently reported a pressure of
951.3 mb...28.09 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 feet above normal tide levels...
locally up to 20 feet at head of bays and nearby rivers...with
large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall. Tides along the
southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coasts in areas affected by
Katrina could be 4 to 6 feet above normal and be accompanied by
large waves... and residents there could experience coastal
flooding. Large swells generated by Rita will likely affect most
portions of the Gulf Coast.
Since Rita is movingly slowly and is forecast to slow down further
over the next few days...rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches are
expected over eastern Texas and western Louisiana. Maximum
rainfall totals in excess of 25 inches may occur over localized
areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated heavier
amounts are possible over southeastern Louisiana including
metropolitan New Orleans.
Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over far eastern
Texas...Louisiana...southern Arkansas...and Mississippi.

Repeating the 4 am CDT position...29.9 N... 93.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...120 mph. Minimum central pressure... 937 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 10 am CDT.

Forecaster Beven
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#1038 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2005 6:50 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...RITA MOVES FARTHER INLAND...WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE...

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM HIGH ISLAND TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST....MIDWAY BETWEEN JASPER
AND BEAUMONT TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
RITA FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS
THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES. A HAM RADIO REPORT INDICATES THAT JASPER TEXAS
MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 85 MPH RECENTLY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WERE PROBABLY EXPERIENCED
TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MADE LANDFALL. THE COASTAL STORM
FLOODING SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. TIDES ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS IN AREAS AFFECTED BY
KATRINA COULD BE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE ARE EXPERIENCING COASTAL
FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.

SINCE RITA IS MOVINGLY SLOWLY AND IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN FURTHER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER LOCALIZED
AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSISSIPPI.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...30.4 N... 94.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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#1039 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2005 9:40 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...RITA LOSING PUNCH FAST...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST...NEAR JASPER TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

RITA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

THE COASTAL STORM FLOODING SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY.
HOWEVER...TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
COASTS IN AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA COULD BE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE ARE
EXPERIENCING COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.

RITA'S SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE VERY HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES MAY OCCUR
OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSISSIPPI.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...31.0 N... 94.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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#1040 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2005 10:04 am

Image

Look how the remanants crawls and loops.
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