Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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la tempesta
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#981 Postby la tempesta » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:31 pm

Part of the advisory says
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES...
915 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 670 MILES...
1080 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.


How can it be ESE of both of these cities??
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#982 Postby la tempesta » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:35 pm

Nevermind I guess it so far away they have no choice but to explain it as such.
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#983 Postby jpigott » Wed Sep 21, 2005 11:04 pm

did you all catch Stewart's discussion where he says one of the outflow channels from which Rita is pulling in moinsture is from a ULL in the LESSER ANTILLES. Rita, in the middle of the gulf of mexico, is pulling moisture from the Atlantic. Unbelievable
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#984 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 12:57 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...CATEGORY FIVE RITA MAINTAINING STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY
MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA... AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST OR ABOUT 540 MILES...
870 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 645 MILES...
1040 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHT FASTER
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 898 MB...26.52 INCHES. THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST
INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD
EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES
INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 87.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 898 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#985 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:08 am

Just like the others when they get picked up they will get dry air/shear. In even Katrina did the same. I don't think this will be a cat5 at landfall. I think tops maybe 140 mph. In most likely a cat3.
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#986 Postby Aqua Teen Hunger Force » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:39 am

So... who has a couple of the 'early' 5am advisory? I know someone does
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#987 Postby dwg71 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:41 am

landfall now further east and now east of Galveston by 40 miles or so.
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#988 Postby ericinmia » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:42 am

Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 19


Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on September 22, 2005



...Potentially catastrophic category five Rita moving
west-northwestward across the central Gulf of Mexico...
At 4 am CDT...0900z...the Hurricane Watch is extended eastward along
the Louisiana coast to Intracoastal City. A Hurricane Watch is now
in effect for the Gulf of Mexico coast from Port Mansfield Texas to
Intracoastal City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning will likely be
required for portions of the Hurricane Watch area later today.

At 4 am CDT...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the
southeastern coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of
the Mississippi River. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area during
the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect on either side of the
Hurricane Watch area... from east of Cameron to Morgan City
Louisiana...and from south of Port Mansfield to Brownsville Texas.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northeastern coast
of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of potentially catastrophic Hurricane Rita.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 4 am CDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 24.9 north...longitude 88.0 west or about 515 miles...
830 km...southeast of Galveston Texas and about 615 miles... 990
km...east-southeast of Corpus Christi Texas.

Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph...280 km/hr...with
higher gusts. This makes Rita a potentially catastrophic category
five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reports by the
hurricane hunter is 897 mb...26.49 inches. This means Rita is the
third most intense hurricane in terms of pressure in the Atlantic
Basin.

Tides are currently running near normal along the Mississippi and
Louisiana coasts in the areas affected by Katrina. Tides in those
areas will increase up to 3 to 4 feet and be accompanied by large
waves over the next 24 hours... and residents there could
experience some coastal flooding.
Heavy rains associated with Rita are forecast to begin to affect the
western and central Gulf of Mexico coastal areas Thursday night
into Friday. Rita is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches from the central Texas coast to southwestern Louisiana.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible elsewhere across
southern Louisiana...including the New Orleans metropolitan area.
After Rita moves inland...total rain accumulations of 5 to 10
inches will be possible over eastern Texas... and central and
eastern Oklahoma during Saturday and Sunday.

Repeating the 4 am CDT position...24.9 N... 88.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...175 mph. Minimum central pressure... 897 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 10 am CDT.

Forecaster Beven


$$
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#989 Postby Aqua Teen Hunger Force » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:46 am

897mb
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#990 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:40 am

HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA...FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 595 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 170 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND
IS FORECAST BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA.
TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES FROM THE
CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES
INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...25.2 N... 88.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...170
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#991 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:55 am

HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
1500Z THU SEP 22 2005

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT
O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA
EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH
OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 88.7W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 907 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 88.7W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 88.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.8N 89.9W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.9N 91.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 28.2N 93.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 34.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 34.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 88.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA
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#992 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:56 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...RITA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS
A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT
O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA
EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH
OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES...740
KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 445 MILES...715 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 165 MPH...270
KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA.
TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15
INCH TOTAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N... 88.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#993 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:58 am

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#994 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:00 am

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

RITA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. HURRICANES TYPICALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN SUCH HIGH INTENSITY
FOR A LONG TIME. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 145 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...AN OVERALL GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS BASED ON
LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING
SHEAR. NEVERTHERELESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.

RITA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING RITA
TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK. THE EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS...RESULTING IN
TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 25.4N 88.7W 145 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 25.8N 89.9W 140 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 26.9N 91.6W 130 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 28.2N 93.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W 100 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/1200Z 34.0N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1200Z 34.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
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gatorcane
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#995 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:02 am

no mention of NNW wobbles. makes no sense to me.
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#996 Postby dwg71 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:04 am

Another shift East. Trend is Houston's friend.
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#997 Postby storms in NC » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:04 am

boca_chris wrote:no mention of NNW wobbles. makes no sense to me.


They do it on a 12 hour avg
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#998 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:07 am

They do it on a 12 hour avg


It will be too late for LA by then :eek:
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#999 Postby storms in NC » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:11 am

I just pulled in From la at 5:30 am today. was there for 3 weeks. Trying to see what is going to happen with Rita. From what I see it well be a La landfall.
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#1000 Postby BamaMan » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:42 am

storms in NC wrote:I just pulled in From la at 5:30 am today. was there for 3 weeks. Trying to see what is going to happen with Rita. From what I see it well be a La landfall.


IMHO . . . . it will be a LA landfall
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