Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[Brent]

she appears to be rapidly strengthening the past couple of hours. The convection is blowing up about 75 miles NE of the the center. A new center could form here maybe and that would be big trouble for S. Florida and the FL Keys.

I don't like this situation here and am not buying due W south of the FL Keys.

Chris is correct and look how the system is flat on the SW side from the shear, the center will cross N of key west

I'm thinking north is more likely than way south... if it does go south, it'll be just barely IMO.

I'm getting concerned about this exploding in intensity... a Cat 1 can be handled, but not a major for the Keys.

[Scorpion]

I am beginning to hedge on a Cat 2 or 3 Florida hit. Already up to 60-65 mph according to recon.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...RITA GETTING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
WARNING LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING
LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. THE WATCH
AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
POSSIBLY A HURRICANE WATCH LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
REFORMING FARTHER NORTH NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.9
WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES ...530 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY LATE
MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110
KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...22.7 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[dld]

It wouldnt surprise me if it came in north of ft lauderdale. It sure seems more nnw to me..

[Brent]

I smell a shift north at 11pm...

[Ivanhater]

I smell a shift north at 11pm...

and the smell is strong

[Brent]

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY LATE
MONDAY.

and the center has moved a half-degree farther north. Could have major implications for South Florida.

[cjrciadt]

NW at 9mph WTH!!!!!!!!

[jpigott]

movement as of 8pm is NW at 9mph. i'm beginning to think everyone in South Florida should start preparing, this is going to track furhter north then the models have thus far indicated, primarily b/c they initialized the storm too far south

[Scorpion]

There are NO birds around here. The quietness is eerie. Also saw some crabs walking around my neighborhood. What the heck are crabs doing around?? Last time I see crabs walking around was before Jeanne.

[TampaFl]

[jpigott]

anybody think they will extend watches/warnings as far north as Jupiter Inlet. I know the watches now extend as far north as Deerfield Beach, and i believe the next break point is Jupiter inlet. Is that right, or is there another break point bwtn Deerfield and Jupiter

[Weatherboy1]

I don't really believe, what with the modelling and the clear, massive ridging you can see in WV imagery, that Rita's true movement is NW. I think this is all center reformation. The true movement is going to end up being probably close to due W. While the NHC track will likely shift north, and this reformation results in more of a Keys threat, I don't think there's any chance of this storm making a landfall in SE FL. That ridge just looks too powerful to me. Of course, here in Jupiter, if I wake up tomorrow morning and Rita has moved NW all night long, then I'll start re-thinking things. But I don't expect that to happen.

-Mike

[cycloneye]

The movement NW is a temporary one as it is now consolidating with the mid-level circulation more north.It eventually will resume a west to westnorthwest track.

[chadtm80]

anybody think they will extend watches/warnings as far north as Jupiter Inlet. I know the watches now extend as far north as Deerfield Beach, and i believe the next break point is Jupiter inlet. Is that right, or is there another break point bwtn Deerfield and Jupiter

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/break_seUS.gif

[Scorpion]

Perhaps. This has the looks of a large storm. Definitely at least TS watches up to Jupiter Inlet. Could get some feeder bands with TS winds.

[Brent]

Essentially Jupiter is the next one since Boca Raton's on the border with Deerfield, it's possible, especially if a hurricane watch goes up for Miami-Dade and Broward.

[krysof]

Rita, what are you doing?!!!!

I was not expecting this. I think the NHC is still being conservative with this one.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm sure that they will mention in the 11pm discussion that this is more likely a reformation of the center and not a true NW movement.

[jamima]

Is it possible that if the nw movement continues this could be a fish and not even effect anybody?