Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[JamesFromMaine2]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 180842
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

THE RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS EN ROUTE TO TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE WAS DIVERTED TO THE DEPRESSION...AND WE VERY MUCH
APPRECIATE THE LAST MINUTE FLEXIBILITY OF THE AIRCREW. WHEN THEY
FIRST GOT TO THE DEPRESSION...THEY DIDN'T FIND MUCH...INCLUDING
ONLY 5 KT OF WEST WIND AND A CENTER SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ON THEIR SECOND PASS THROUGH THEY FOUND THAT
THE CENTER HAD MIGRATED OR REDEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...
WHICH IS NOW TAKING ON A SLIGHTLY MORE BANDED APPEARANCE ON THE
FIRST FEW IMAGES AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE. THESE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 36 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 25 KT.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA REQUIRE A RELOCATION OF THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE BASIC TRACK
REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD TURN THE DEPRESSION
WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE UKMET IS FARTHER SOUTH...TAKING THE CYCLONE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS ALSO SOUTH
OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...TAKING THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST.

UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA...AND THIS
LOW IS PRODUCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER...THIS LOW
IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
THIS UPPER PATTERN...COUPLED WITH VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...WOULD FAVOR MORE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE AVOIDS THE LAND MASS OF CUBA.
THE GFDL IS NOT NEARLY AS AGRESSIVE AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...NOT
MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE UNTIL IT IS WELL INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY IN BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 21.7N 71.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 22.2N 73.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 22.8N 75.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 23.4N 77.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 23.8N 80.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 24.0N 84.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 24.0N 89.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 24.0N 93.5W 80 KT


$$

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...DEPRESSION CENTERED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST OR OVER
THE CAICOS ISLANDS AND ABOUT 430 MILES... 695 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF NASSAU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB... 29.77 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...21.7 N... 71.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[WindRunner]

The TD18 discussion thread is locked. I sense an upgrade.

[JamesFromMaine2]

no upgrade at 11am!

[nequad]

673
WTNT23 KNHC 181441
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
1500Z SUN SEP 18 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY
TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 72.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 72.2W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 71.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.6N 73.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.2N 76.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.7N 78.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 23.8N 80.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 72.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[WindRunner]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...DEPRESSION ORGANIZING AS IT NEARS THE BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY
TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 390 MILES... 625 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[WindRunner]

Then someone needs to unlock the TD18 thread.

[wxmann_91]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
BANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE UNANIMOUSLY 30 KT... AND THIS IS THE NEW
ADVISORY INTENSITY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
WESTERN CUBA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD...CONTINUES TO
IMPOSE THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE DEPRESSION THAT IS CAUSING THE
ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS
UPPER LOW/TROUGH FEATURE TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THIS PATTERN CHANGE...ALONG WITH
PLENTY WARM OCEAN WATERS...SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
DIAGNOSES MUCH LESS SHEAR BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEMS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFDL REMAINS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE...NOT
FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE UNTIL IT IS WELL INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS FORECASTS A 64 KT
HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS...WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
THEREAFTER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...NEARLY ALONG THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR COULD BE FORCING SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND IN FACT IT COULD ALREADY BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE ADVISORY
POSITION. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO FORCE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD OCCUR DUE TO SOME DOWNSHEAR
REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN
ALONG THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT...EXCEPT FOR INTRODUCING A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEND AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODELS
EXPECTED SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE CURRENT SIZE
OF THE CIRCULATION AND ON WIND RADII CLIPER GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE
NEW FORECAST... HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 22.0N 72.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 22.6N 73.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 23.2N 76.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 23.7N 78.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 23.8N 80.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 24.0N 85.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 90.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 25.0N 94.0W 90 KT


$$

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...DEPRESSION SLOWLY ORGANIZING AS IT NEARS THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND FOR CUBA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 385 MILES... 625 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE
BAHAMAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...21.9 N... 72.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[recmod]

NRL now has TD #18 identified as Rita...looks like we have the upgrade...

--Lou

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
2100Z SUN SEP 18 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH
SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE
SABLE.

AT 5 PM EDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA
HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 72.7W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 72.7W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 72.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.6N 74.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.2N 77.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.5N 79.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 72.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[BigA]

TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...17TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS...
...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND FOR CUBA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH
SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE
SABLE.

AT 5 PM EDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA
HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 355
MILES... 570 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110
KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...22.2 N... 72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB



#46783 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 18.Sep.2005)
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...PHILIPPE CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST OR ABOUT
400 MILES... 645 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH... 13
KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
...130 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N... 55.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

Ok we have Rita now so post away all your thoughts here about this system.

[hicksta]

Its all about when she turns Nw

[mvtrucking]

With all the models pointing to the gulf after intializing
with the recon, this is a gulf storm.Mainland Florida sees nada.(Thats a good thing)

[InimanaChoogamaga]

Yup. Looks like the very early question is which part of the Texas coast will Rita hit.

[cycloneye]

[tracyswfla]

With all the models pointing to the gulf after intializing
with the recon, this is a gulf storm.Mainland Florida sees nada.(Thats a good thing)

Mainland Florida sees nada? Not a good thing to say at this point.

[hicksta]

joe b takes it W all the way into brownsville

[Rainband]

It's way to early to say where this system will end up. I find it hilarious how people say. "all clear" and "not coming here". Remember ophelia people Everyone in the GOM needs to watch.