Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[Bocadude85]

I can say that im almost posistive that those watches will be extended nortward to jupiter inlet either tonight or tomorrow, especially if the center does indeed reform

[canegrl04]

Whats really unsettling is having LA in the cone

[SotabusterFL]

The official forecast is only adjusted slightly southward since it is quite possible the center will reform farther north during the next 36 hours

O.K. can someone explain to me how they determine to move the forecast track southward when the center can possble be reforming father north?

[Ivanhater]

The official forecast is only adjusted slightly southward since it is quite possible the center will reform farther north during the next 36 hours

O.K. can someone explain to me how they determine to move the forecast track southward when the center can possble be reforming father north?

forecaster knabb, thats why it doesnt make sense

[jkt21787]

The official forecast is only adjusted slightly southward since it is quite possible the center will reform farther north during the next 36 hours

O.K. can someone explain to me how they determine to move the forecast track southward when the center can possble be reforming father north?

forecaster knabb, thats why it doesnt make sense

I shudder to think what Avila would have done with it!

[Bocadude85]

SotabusterFL wrote:
The official forecast is only adjusted slightly southward since it is quite possible the center will reform farther north during the next 36 hours

O.K. can someone explain to me how they determine to move the forecast track southward when the center can possble be reforming father north?

I'm guessing they are thinking it may track WSW

[artist]

what about the circulation that is due west of Rita?? anything to be concerned about?

[wxman57]

Where are the models showing?

Here are the 18Z models. I removed the worthless BAMD/BAMM/BAMS/LBAR/ETA/XTRAP and any climo models. What's left are the UKMET, GFDL iterations, AVN (GFS) GFDN iterations (NOGAPS GFDL), and the NOGAPS, as well as a few consensus models. All are in good agreement on a general westerly motion with a turn to the WNW-NW on Thursday. Note that the 12Z ECMWF drove Rita across Cuba and into the NW Caribbean, across the northern Yucatan, then WNW-NW toward just south of Brownsville, TX. I think it's too far south initially, and too far south at the end.

Note that the NHC track is on the northern edge of the dynamic model guidance, by the way.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/rita10.gif">

[Dave C]

Was just checking out floater #1 sat. pic. and there was no outline for Haiti or Jamaica.. that kind of confused me for a second
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

[HeatherAKC]

Uh ohhhh....

Doesn't even make sense to me.

it's like saying...."I'm only going to take $50 with me to buy this new umbrella because I know it's quite possible it's going to be $80." If I know it's quite possible to be $80, I'm going to take $100! Maybe that's just me. (And my expensive new umbrella)

Can someone explain this reasoning to me?

[artist]

wxman57 - please see my ? above

[jkt21787]

Where are the models showing?

Here are the 18Z models. I removed the worthless BAMD/BAMM/BAMS/LBAR/ETA/XTRAP and any climo models. What's left are the UKMET, GFDL iterations, AVN (GFS) GFDN iterations (NOGAPS GFDL), and the NOGAPS, as well as a few consensus models. All are in good agreement on a general westerly motion with a turn to the WNW-NW on Thursday. Note that the 12Z ECMWF drove Rita across Cuba and into the NW Caribbean, across the northern Yucatan, then WNW-NW toward just south of Brownsville, TX. I think it's too far south initially, and too far south at the end.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/rita10.gif">

Wow, barely even clouds or rain even for the Keys!

If it verifies of course, which I'm not sure on at all.

[wxman57]

Uh ohhhh....

Doesn't even make sense to me.

it's like saying...."I'm only going to take $50 with me to buy this new umbrella because I know it's quite possible it's going to be $80." If I know it's quite possible to be $80, I'm going to take $100! Maybe that's just me. (And my expensive new umbrella)

Can someone explain this reasoning to me?

Sorry, I already have an umbrella.

[HeatherAKC]

*Bops w57 over the head with above mentioned umbrella. Better not break it!*

Seriously though, what was the reasoning here? Anyone?

[Brent]

NHC track looks too far south IMO... when I saw the storm on TWC about an hour ago(before I had seen the track and everything from NHC, been out all day), I figured the track would be farther north from this morning...

[wxman57]

wxman57 - please see my ? above

Circulation west of Rita?? Not sure what you mean. I see a couple of low-level eddies in the strato-cumulus in the Gulf, one near 24N/94W and the other near 26N/91W. They're nothing to be concerned about.

[artist]

ooops - meant east!

[superfly]

The initialization of the models are too far south.

[curtadams]

The models moved south but in view of the center being further north than previously thought the NHC just nudged the projected path south.

[HurricaneQueen]

The ridge appears to be quite strong and is low over S. FL. Unless something drastically happens-like she stalls until the ridge lifts, it would appear that S. FL is relatively safe, IMHO. After making minor preparations all day, I feel more confident that this will pass well south of us. Time will tell.

Lynn