Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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gotoman38
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#1001 Postby gotoman38 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:33 am

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I have to agree with the La landfall.... the navy graphic clearly shows how the nhc hasforced the path left in advisory #20
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#1002 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 12:40 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...RITA WEAKENS A LITTLE FURTHER...REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT
O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...FROM SOUTH OF
PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...700
KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 430 MILES...695 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 915 MB...27.01 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA.
TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15
INCH TOTAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...25.5 N... 89.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#1003 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:44 pm

145 mph...

HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
2100Z THU SEP 22 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT
MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STROM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 89.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 913 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 89.5W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 89.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.5N 90.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.8N 92.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 89.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA
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#1004 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:49 pm

Image[/b]
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#1005 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:51 pm

Image[/b]
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#1006 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:55 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA GRADUALLY HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT
MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STROM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES...
650 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 390 MILES... 630
KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANYTROPICAL STROM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS. AT 3 PM CDT...A NOAA BUOY
REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 89 MPH...143 KM/HR WITH A GUST
TO 112 MPH...180 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
913 MB...26.96 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY
KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15
INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. BASED ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...TOTALS ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...25.8 N... 89.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#1007 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:56 pm

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

RITA IS GOING TROUGH THE WEAKENING PHASE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE AND DATA FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 125 KNOTS...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.
HOWEVER...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 913
MB...WHICH IS A VERY LOW PRESSURE TO HAVE ONLY 125 KNOTS. IN
ADDITION TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...RITA IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE EDGE OF A COLD SST EDDY. THIS COULD HAVE ENHANCED
THE WEAKENING TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER ANOTHER
WARM EDDY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE
THAT RITA COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE...THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE STRENGTHENING
THAT MAY BE CAUSED BY THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE
BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP RITA AS A 125 KT HURRICANE WITH
A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT RITA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A
CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS
AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 25.8N 89.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 90.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 27.8N 92.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.8W 120 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 94.5W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
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#1008 Postby gotoman38 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:57 pm

C'mon 21a.....

:grr:
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#1009 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:00 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...RITA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD
TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM
RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...
565 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 290 MILES...
465 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS. SHORTLY BEFORE 6 PM
CDT...NOAA BUOY 42001 JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF RITA REPORTED A
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 83 MPH...134 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 112
MPH...180 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 913 MB...26.96 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY
KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15
INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. BASED ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...TOTALS ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 89.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#1010 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:49 pm

HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0300Z FRI SEP 23 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND
FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 90.3W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 917 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 250SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 90.3W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 89.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 27.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 28.4N 93.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.8N 94.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.1N 94.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 90.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#1011 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:49 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER
TEXAS COASTS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND
FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...
560 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 310 MILES... 495
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 917 MB...27.08 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY
KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
COASTAL FLOODING.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
SINCE RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...26.2 N... 90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 917 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#1012 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:51 pm

Image
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

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#1013 Postby Ixolib » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:01 pm

Soooo.... They stuck the big balloon back in?? Hmmm?
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#1014 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:05 pm

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

FLIGHT LEVEL WIND DATA AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE MIGHT BE NEARING COMPLETION. THERE IS NOW ONLY A SINGLE
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 20 N MI...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL THAT THE AIRCRAFT RADAR INDICATE IS SLOWLY
CONTRACTING... WHILE THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE.
RECENT GOES INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT A COMPLETE RING OF
VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...COLDER THAN -70C... NOW SURROUNDS THE
EYE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ONLY RISEN SLIGHTLY TO 917 MB AS
MEASURED BY THE MOST RECENT DROPSONDE. RECENT FLIGHT LEVEL AND
DROPSONDE WIND DATA DO NOT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY GREATER THAN ABOUT
110 KT...BUT GIVEN THE VERY LOW PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO 120 KT. RITA IS ABOUT TO PASS
OVER ANOTHER EDDY OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. COMBINING THIS WITH
THE POSSIBLE CONTRACTION OF THE OUTER EYEWALL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE LATER ON FRIDAY BEFORE LANDFALL DUE
TO LESSER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

ALTHOUGH RITA HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...THE OVERALL MOTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS
REMAINED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ABOUT 300/9. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...SINCE THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS
STRADDLE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. RITA IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AS THE HIGH
TO ITS NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD. RITA IS FORECAST TO THEN ESSENTIALLY
STALL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS IN THE AREA OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS WHERE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY WEAK. THIS SCENARIO
POSES A GREAT RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INLAND AND FOR MANY
DAYS AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 26.2N 90.3W 120 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 27.0N 91.5W 125 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 28.4N 93.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 29.8N 94.2W 115 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/0000Z 31.1N 94.7W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/0000Z 33.0N 95.0W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0000Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
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#1015 Postby tomboudreau » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:06 pm

Oie. I hope this system doesn't back itself back into the Gulf after coming ashore like Allison did. Is there any chance of that happening after it sits in Northeast Texas or Western Louisanna?
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#1016 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:08 pm

tomboudreau wrote:Oie. I hope this system doesn't back itself back into the Gulf after coming ashore like Allison did. Is there any chance of that happening after it sits in Northeast Texas or Western Louisanna?


I've seen a couple of models showing that:

Image
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#1017 Postby oneness » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:46 pm

Ixolib wrote:Soooo.... They stuck the big balloon back in?? Hmmm?


Probably due to the forcast stall and looping-back after landfall.
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#1018 Postby soonertwister » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:53 pm

With all but the BAMMD, guess where all that rain is going to go? Right into the lower Mississippi Valley.
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#1019 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:44 am

Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 22a

Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on September 23, 2005


...Extremely dangerous category four Hurricane Rita moving
west-northwestward toward the southwestern Louisiana and Upper
Texas coasts with little change in strength...


a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port O'Connor Texas to Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southeastern coast of
Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River
including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain....and
from south of Port O'Connor to Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.


A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south of Port
Mansfield to Brownsville Texas...and for the northeastern coast of
Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande. The watch
in Mexico may be discontinued later this morning. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 1 am CDT...0600z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 26.4 north... longitude 90.6 west or about 325 miles...
525 km... southeast of Galveston Texas and about 285 miles... 460
km...southeast of Cameron Louisiana.


Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24
hours. On this track...the core of Rita will be approaching the
southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts late Friday.


Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Rita is an extremely dangerous category four
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in
strength are expected during the next 24 hours.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles...335 km. Any tropical storm force winds in the New
Orleans area are expected to be confined to a few squalls
associated with quickly moving rainbands.


The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft was 921 mb...27.20 inches.


Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Tides are currently running about 2 feet above normal along the
Louisiana...Mississippi and Alabama coasts in the areas affected by
Katrina. Tides in those areas will increase to 3 to 5 feet and be
accompanied by large waves...and residents there could experience
coastal flooding.


Rita is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12
inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over
southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana as it moves inland.
Since Rita is forecast to slow down significantly after making
landfall...total accumulations in excess of 25 inches are possible
over the next several days across eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. In addition...rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are
possible over southeastern Louisiana including metropolitan New
Orleans.

Isolated tornadoes are possible beginning late Friday over portions
of the Upper Texas coast and southern Louisiana.


Repeating the 1 am CDT position...26.4 N... 90.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 921 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.


Forecaster Beven
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#1020 Postby Coredesat » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:58 am

000
WTNT33 KNHC 230852
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR RITA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND
FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PORTIONS OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN TEXAS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR
THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD AND FOR NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES. AN AUTOMATED STATION OPERATED BY LOUISIANA STATE
UNIVERSITY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH WITH A GUST OF 65 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF
130 FT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB...27.37 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY
KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT
MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...26.8 N... 91.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 927 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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