Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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jpigott
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#961 Postby jpigott » Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:21 pm

anybody expect to see a NWS statement out of Houston/Galveston or any other Texas coastal NWS office like the one we saw out of NO with Katrina. You know the one i'm taking about where all wooden and industrial structures fail, substantial structure damage to concrete block structures and the collapse of some high rise buildings
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#962 Postby gotoman38 » Wed Sep 21, 2005 5:05 pm

847
WTNT63 KNHC 212146
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
545 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 416 PM CDT...2116Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 904 MB...OR 26.69 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE FIFTH MOST
INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888
MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB...HURRICANE ALLEN IN
1980 WITH 899 MB...AND HURRICANE KATRINA LAST MONTH WITH 902 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#963 Postby feederband » Wed Sep 21, 2005 5:15 pm

So much for Katrina being a once in a life time storm... :eek:
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#964 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:55 pm

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT
MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY
DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...
WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB
AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#965 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:01 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA CONTINUING TO DEEPEN...
...NOW THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
ON RECORD...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES.

PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 898 MB...26.55 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE
THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...898 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA
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#966 Postby Javlin » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:06 pm

She appears to have stalled .1N and thats it in the last 3 hrs.This can not bode well something is askew.
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#967 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:50 pm

The slower a canes forward speed,the better chance for intensification :eek:
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#968 Postby THead » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:31 pm

canegrl04 wrote:The slower a canes forward speed,the better chance for intensification :eek:


No...
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#969 Postby Coredesat » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:51 pm

THead wrote:
canegrl04 wrote:The slower a canes forward speed,the better chance for intensification :eek:


No...


Depends on where it is. Right now, Rita's in an area where the very warm water extends deeper under the surface, so upwelling of colder water isn't as much of an issue here. Although I don't think Rita would intensify if she sat here. She would probably either maintain her strength or very slowly weaken (more likely).
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#970 Postby Coredesat » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:52 pm

THead wrote:
canegrl04 wrote:The slower a canes forward speed,the better chance for intensification :eek:


No...


Depends on where it is. Right now, Rita's in an area where the very warm water extends deeper under the surface, so upwelling of colder water isn't as much of an issue here. Although I don't think Rita would intensify if she sat here. She would probably either maintain her strength or very slowly weaken (more likely).
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#971 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:31 pm

155 mph at landfall!!!

HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0300Z THU SEP 22 2005

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY
MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA... AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 87.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 897 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 87.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 86.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.9N 88.7W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.3N 92.4W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.5N 94.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.0N 96.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 33.5N 96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 35.0N 96.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 87.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART
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#972 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:36 pm

Image

Track shifts more right now almost over Galveston. :eek:
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#973 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:41 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...CATEGORY FIVE RITA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY
MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA... AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES...
915 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 670 MILES...
1080 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES.
THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD
EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 24 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES
INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 897 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#974 Postby feederband » Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:43 pm

Well i'm going to bed....Hopefully overnite it will get up to 300 mph and self implode...And when I wake up it will be gone.......Could you imagine staying away from your computer and tv untill monday..I wouldn't advise it ......seeya thursday.........
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#975 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:44 pm

5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#976 Postby curtadams » Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:47 pm

Best as I can tell, the track is absolutely the nightmare scenario - about 20 miles SW of Galveston. Galveston and Houston in the NE eyewall of a borderline Cat 5. Yeah, it's only the black line ... but ... :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#977 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:51 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#978 Postby Coredesat » Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:53 pm

RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 24 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA.


Before anyone mentions this, this is more than likely a typo. They would not forecast such a broad range. It should be "2 to 4 inches".
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#979 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:11 pm

To estimate where this NHC projected track is crossing the TX coast, I think it is best to draw an imaginary clockwise CURVE from the FRI point to the SAT point rather than a straight line since they generally travel in a curved (parabolic) path when turning rather than stair-stepping. (I'm not talking about the more short-term wobbling that is also normal). Drawing a curve, I get a northern Matagorda county projected landfall or about 60 miles SW of Galveston. A straight line would have suggested a Brazoria county projected landfall about 40 miles NE up the coast or ~20 miles SW of Galveston.
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#980 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:11 pm

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A
DROPSONDE IN THE EYE OF RITA AROUND 21/2309Z RECORDED A PRESSURE OF
899 MB WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 32 KT. ANYTHING BELOW 10 KT IS
USUALLY CONSIDERED A VALID PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THUMB
RULE IS TO DECREASE THE PRESSURE 1 MB FOR EVERY 10 KT ABOVE THAT
WIND SPEED. IN THIS CASE... RITA'S CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 897 MB...MAKING IT THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE LAST RECON PASS ONLY INDICATED
2 REPORTS OF 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 157 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. HOWEVER... ODT VALUES OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS HAVE AVERAGED
BETWEEN T7.3/149 KT AND T7.4/152 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 150 KT. THE PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR AN 897
MB PRESSURE IS 160 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. RITA HAS ACTUALLY MADE A
LARGE WOBBLE AND SLOWED TO A 285/06 KT MOTION THE PAST 6 HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUCH MOTION CHANGES...WHICH ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR
EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING TROPICAL CYCLONES AS THE INNER CORE WIND
FIELD AND CONVECTIVE PATTERN REORGANIZES...ARE CONSIDERED TEMPORARY
AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO SHORTLY RESUME A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE
18Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE CONVERGENT THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS... WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS DOING THEIR USUAL
AFTERNOON EASTWARD SHIFT. THOSE MODELS NOW BRING RITA ACROSS THE
HOUSTON-GALVESTON AREA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OTHER
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE STABILIZED THEIR FORECAST TRACKS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE CONSENSUS HAVING SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT NOT AS
FAR AS THE GFS/GFDL MODELS...SINCE IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON WEAKENING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST BASED 22/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATING 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN IS PERFECT WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND A THIRD WEAK OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPING TO
THE NORTHWEST. THIS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE PATTERN...COMBINED WITH
30-31C SSTS...HAS ALLOWED RITA'S EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING TO OCCUR. THE
EYE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE WARM GULF LOOP CURRENT DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... IF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DOES NOT INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS. BY 36-48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE CURRENT THREE OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY
MAINLY A LARGE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN. THIS SHOULD INDUCE SOME
STEADY WEAKENING...BUT THAT TYPE OF OUTFLOW PATTERN...COUPLED WITH
EXPECTED LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS...IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. OF COURSE...
INTERNAL DYNAMICS ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT THE INTENSITY OF A
HURRICANE WILL BE... AND WE HAVE NO SKILL IN FORECASTING EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES BEYOND ABOUT 6-12 HOURS...AT BEST. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE TREND OF THE SHIPS MODEL...ONLY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATED BY THE
NOGAPS...CANADIAN...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 24.6N 87.2W 150 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 24.9N 88.7W 155 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 25.5N 90.5W 150 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 26.3N 92.4W 145 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 27.5N 94.2W 135 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 31.0N 96.4W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/0000Z 33.5N 96.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/0000Z 35.0N 96.5W 25 KT...DISSIAPTING INLAND
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