Stan Advisories

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cycloneye
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Stan Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:36 am

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...TWENTIETH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING ISSUED FOR THE YUCATAN...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

AT 10 AM CDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO
CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND
ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE
FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
ENROUTE TO ASSESS THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 85.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Oct 04, 2005 10:45 am, edited 51 times in total.
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Brent
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#2 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:42 am

WOW... caught me off-guard.
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wxcrazytwo

#3 Postby wxcrazytwo » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:43 am

Brent wrote:WOW... caught me off-guard.


It caught me off guard to, but I noticed and said sh**, it ain't on this site, so I posted it as breaking news.
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#4 Postby Scorpion » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:43 am

:woo:
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#5 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:44 am

well looks like 99L finnally woke up and decided to do something with his life! lol
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#6 Postby rockyman » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:45 am

skysummit wrote:Did we really need 2 adivsories posted?


One is the public advisory and the other is the marine advisory...the marine advisory shows future track.
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#7 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:45 am

Looks like this will be Stan. TD 19 looks horrible.
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#8 Postby skysummit » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:49 am

rockyman wrote:
skysummit wrote:Did we really need 2 adivsories posted?


One is the public advisory and the other is the marine advisory...the marine advisory shows future track.


Oopsss...my bad. I guess I should've read it. Thanks rockyman!
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#9 Postby rockyman » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:51 am

Image
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#10 Postby cajungal » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:55 am

Oh well, it will have a short life. It is going to Mexico.
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#11 Postby skysummit » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:57 am

cajungal wrote:Oh well, it will have a short life. It is going to Mexico.


According to this very first track. Texas is in the cone, and don't forget, we're supposed to have a cold front move through in a few days.
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#12 Postby Innotech » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:57 am

the persistence of this thing gives me an ominous feeling....
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wxcrazytwo

#13 Postby wxcrazytwo » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:02 am

Innotech wrote:the persistence of this thing gives me an ominous feeling....


According to NHC

"SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY SEEN PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES."

Would this feature not bring 20 more on a easterly move, rather than a westerly move, and if so, would it not collide with OTIS.
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#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:05 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

SATELLITE DATA AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY FESTERING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS HAS FINALLY
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE EXACT
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE... BUT WIND AND
PRESSURE REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42056 SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE BUOY LOCATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON NOAA BUOY WIND REPORTS RANGING FROM
23 TO 27 KT OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS. TWO SHIPS NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AT 01/06Z ALSO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28-32 KT.
HOWEVER... QUALITY CONTROL CHECKS BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER INDICATE THAT THOSE WINDS WERE LIKELY 3-5 KT HIGH.
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE... AND SO HAS THE
OUTFLOW PATTERN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/05. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT BEST... BUT THE
SLOWLY BACKING WIND PROFILE AT NOAA BUOY 42056 SUGGESTS THAT THE
CENTER IS SOMEWHERE NEARBY. THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE BROAD BUT WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REMAINS INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE 3 BAM MODELS... PLUS THE GFS AND
UKMET SOLUTIONS.

THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 4
DAYS IS LAND INTERACTION. AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN 18-30 HOURS... INCREASED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP THE RATHER LOOSE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD... AND
THIS SHOULD AID IN THE QUICK REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ONCE
THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 36
HOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS
WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER 29-30C SSTS. WITH A VERY FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW PATTERN FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS... THIS SYSTEM
COULD EASILY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES A SECOND
LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. EXCLUDING LAND INTERACTION...
THE SHIPS MODEL INCREASES THE INTENSITY TO 88 KT BY 96 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 19.3N 85.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 19.9N 86.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 20.8N 88.8W 25 KT...INLAND YUCATAN
36HR VT 03/0000Z 21.7N 90.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 03/1200Z 22.5N 92.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 23.4N 95.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.5N 98.5W 40 KT...INLAND NERN MEXICO
120HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 101.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
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#15 Postby skysummit » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:08 am

Wow...so reading that discussion, the Yucatan will actually HELP develop TD20 by contracting its windfield??? Did I read that correctly?
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#16 Postby krysof » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:09 am

could be a big problem, after crossing the yucatun it has the perfect environment for rapid intensification, Southeastern TX should keep their eyes on this one, even though the track takes it to mexico, Remember where Rita was supposed to go, and where it went.
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#17 Postby skysummit » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:10 am

krysof wrote:could be a big problem, after crossing the yucatun it has the perfect environment for rapid intensification, Southeastern TX should keep their eyes on this one, even though the track takes it to mexico, Remember where Rita was supposed to go, and where it went.


Exactly. Looking at WV, I do NOT see this going to Mexico. If I were in Texas, I'd keep a very close watch.
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#18 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:18 am

NE Mexico is no better than Louisiana and MS after Emily leveled that part of the Gulf Coast
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#19 Postby jwayne » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:23 am

Derek Ortt wrote:NE Mexico is no better than Louisiana and MS after Emily leveled that part of the Gulf Coast


ummm, sorry but yes it is b/c it's not in our country. I'm sorry, but if I've got to chose, Mexico can have it.
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#20 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:27 am

Wow, first Bret, then Gert, then Jose, then now we have another BOC storm with perfect conditions with 4 letters! That is assuming 20 will become Stan and not 19. Rita was another GOM storm. If only Nate was in the Gulf! (Watch out for Beta :wink: )
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