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#81 Postby mtm4319 » Tue Oct 04, 2005 4:01 am

Hurricane Stan Forecast/Advisory Number 13

Statement as of 09:00Z on October 04, 2005


at 4 am CDT...0900z...the government of Mexico has changed the
northern portion of the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm
Warning...from north of Palma Sola to Cabo Rojo. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Gulf Coast of Mexico
from Palma Sola southward and eastward to chilitepec. A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane center located near 18.8n 94.4w at 04/0900z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the southwest or 235 degrees at 10 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 982 mb
Max sustained winds 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
64 kt....... 15ne 0se 15sw 15nw.
50 kt....... 45ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
34 kt....... 90ne 75se 75sw 75nw.
12 ft seas..175ne 60se 30sw 125nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 18.8n 94.4w at 04/0900z
at 04/0600z center was located near 19.2n 94.1w

forecast valid 04/1800z 18.4n 95.4w...inland
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 15ne 0se 0sw 15nw.
50 kt... 45ne 20se 0sw 30nw.
34 kt... 90ne 75se 40sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 05/0600z 18.2n 96.2w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 05/1800z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 18.8n 94.4w

next advisory at 04/1500z

forecaster Knabb


$$
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#82 Postby mtm4319 » Tue Oct 04, 2005 4:02 am

Hurricane Stan Discussion Number 13

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 04, 2005


many unexpected changes have occurred with Stan overnight. An Air
Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been in the system for the past
several hours... and the center fixes indicate Stan has been moving
persistently southwestward or 235/10. This is much faster than any
of the dynamical models were forecasting... and there does not now
appear to be any obvious reason why this motion will not continue.
Unless Stan slows down or changes direction very soon... it will
cross the coast within the Hurricane Warning area later this
morning. The new official track forecast anticipates the center to
be onshore in less than 12 hours... and to continue inland into the
mountainous terrain of Mexico where it should dissipate in less
than 36 hours. Even though Stan will probably be moving faster
than previously expected once it is inland... it could still
produce significant rainfall totals especially over areas of
complex terrain.

How strong Stan has become this morning is a bit speculative... but
most of the available data support the advisory intensity of 65 kt
and making Stan a hurricane. The central pressure has been falling
throughout the night... and as I type was just measured at 979 mb.
Flight level winds have been steadily increasing in response and
are very close to supporting 65 kt surface winds. The aircraft
radar depicts well-defined spiral banding that almost classifies as
an eyewall. The satellite presentation has also become very
impressive... with an explosive development of convection during
the night and cloud tops colder than -90c. Dvorak intensity
estimates are a consensus 65 kt. While the official forecast shows
Stan inland at 12 hours with a 65 kt intensity... it could be
stronger at landfall. Preparations must be rushed to completion
within the warning area.


Forecaster Knabb




forecast positions and Max winds


initial 04/0900z 18.8n 94.4w 65 kt
12hr VT 04/1800z 18.4n 95.4w 65 kt...inland
24hr VT 05/0600z 18.2n 96.2w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 05/1800z...dissipated




$$
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#83 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 04, 2005 4:04 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 040858
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

...STAN BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING...FROM NORTH OF PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... STAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...18.8 N... 94.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#84 Postby mtm4319 » Tue Oct 04, 2005 4:05 am

Already posted on page 4. ;) But it's probably a good idea to post it here too so people won't have to switch between pages.
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#85 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:43 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

...STAN NEARING THE MEXICAN COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. ALL
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PALMA SOLA
TO CABO ROJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...
195 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH... 16 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... STAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...18.7 N... 94.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB
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#86 Postby mtm4319 » Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:48 am

Looks like another typo by the NHC... I'm assuming the 80mph is correct.
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#87 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:46 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

...STAN MAKES LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ NEAR PUNTA ROCA
PARTIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PALMA SOLA TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE STAN WAS LOCATED JUST
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES... 135 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE STATES OF VERACRUZ AND PUEBLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...18.6 N... 95.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#88 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:48 am

HURRICANE STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005

ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE CENTER POSTITION IS UNCERTAIN...BASED ON
CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 10Z...STAN SHOULD BE JUST
INLAND OF THE COASTLINE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER
COULD BE SOMEWHAT FARTHER INLAND...BUT SINCE DECOUPLING OF THE LOW
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IS POSSIBLE IN RESPONSE TO THE TERRAIN OF
MEXICO...I PREFER TO STAY WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION FOR THE
SURFACE CENTER. CONTINUITY OF THIS TRACK...WITH A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.

THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA NEAR 10Z INDICATED AN INTENSITY OF 70
KT. WHILE THERE WAS A BURST OF VERY COLD CONVECTION SINCE
THEN...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE
AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED DETERIORATION OF THE EYEWALL ON THEIR LAST
PAST. BALANCING THESE FACTORS LEADS ME TO HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 70
KT. A RAPID DECAY OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
MOVES INLAND OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO.

STAN POSES A VERY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT...AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD-SLIDES ARE VERY LIKELY.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 18.6N 95.1W 70 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 05/0000Z 18.3N 95.7W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 05/1200Z 18.0N 96.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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#89 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:51 am

Well Brent I will take the sticky off this thread so now there will be nada to post about recon nor advisories waiting to see what 92 does to see if new threads for recon and advisories will be made.
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#90 Postby Swimdude » Tue Oct 04, 2005 11:27 am

Well that landfall was sudden and unexpected. :eek:
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#91 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 04, 2005 11:29 am

Swimdude wrote:Well that landfall was sudden and unexpected. :eek:


LOL... seriously. :lol:
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#92 Postby superfly » Tue Oct 04, 2005 11:41 am

Stan would have likely have made major cane status with another 24 hours.
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#93 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 04, 2005 12:48 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

...STAN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND...BUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT
CONTINUES...

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING AND ADJUSTED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA TO
COATZACOALCOS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES... 150 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR. A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. STAN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...FROM THE CENTER

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...28.18 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE STATES OF VERACRUZ AND PUEBLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...18.0 N... 95.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#94 Postby WindRunner » Tue Oct 04, 2005 4:52 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE AS STAN MOVES FARTHER INLAND...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
COASTAL WARNINGS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES... 170 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CIRCULATION
DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. STAN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN IN THE STATES OF VERACRUZ...PUEBLA...AND OAXACA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...17.8 N... 95.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN



WWWW
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#95 Postby artist » Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:18 pm

is there a reason this is no longer stickied? would think it should remain so for our neighbors to the south until at least the tropical storm warnings are discontinued. Says they will issue the next advisory at 10 pm cdt
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#96 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:06 pm

artist wrote:is there a reason this is no longer stickied? would think it should remain so for our neighbors to the south until at least the tropical storm warnings are discontinued. Says they will issue the next advisory at 10 pm cdt


The warnings have been discontinued.
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#97 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:32 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
0300Z WED OCT 05 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 96.6W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 96.6W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 96.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.5N 97.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 97.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 96.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA
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#98 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:33 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

...STAN IS NOW A RAINMAKER...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE
96.8 WEST...OVER THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR.
LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY OVER WATER WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. STAN IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN IN THE STATES OF VERACRUZ...PUEBLA...AND OAXACA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...17.3 N... 96.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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Brent

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cycloneye
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#99 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:53 pm

TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
STAN HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN
DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CENTER IS ALREADY WELL INLAND OVER THE
STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO. SOME MODELS BRING STAN TO THE PACIFIC WHERE
REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OTHER MODELS
BRING A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. I WAS TEMPTED TO WRITE THE LAST ADVISORY BUT
THIS IS A LARGE SYSTEM WHICH IS STILL PRODUCING 25 TO 30-KNOT WINDS
OVER WATER ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ON THE PACIFIC SIDE.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 17.3N 96.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 97.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 06/0000Z 16.5N 97.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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Derek Ortt

#100 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:57 pm

not sure what the center position is based on. The rotation is clearly well south of there and moving a lot faster than 3KT. May have too much reliance on the guidance that brings the system into the GOM, when that looks to be the wrong ocean
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