Stan Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Matt-hurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11649
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Portland,OR
Contact:

#61 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Oct 03, 2005 4:14 am

000
WTNT45 KNHC 030902
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2005

THE CENTER OF STAN EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT ABOUT 0430Z. SHORTLY THEREAFTER AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE FLEW INTO THE CENTER AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1003 MB... THEN 1002 MB ON A MORE RECENT PENETRATION. MAXIMUM
850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 43 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER... IN THE BAND OF CONVECTION EMANATING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE USING
THE 80 PERCENT REDUCTION...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 35 KT AT THE
SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN BURSTING NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD SOON BE
OCCURRING THERE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT... MAKING
STAN A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN.

THE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION... AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW WESTWARD... 270/9. A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS
TO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER STAN TOWARD THE WEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH AN EVENTUAL SLIGHT BEND SOUTH
OF WEST AND A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH RIDGING WILL PERSIST TO TAKE STAN ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
COMPLICATING FACTORS... INCLUDING INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN AS
STAN APPROACHES THE COAST... A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC... AND LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... COULD CAUSE A SLOWER MOTION THAN
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION.

STAN IS NOW OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO... AND IS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AS DEPICTED
IN GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO STRENGTHENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
TO DIVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 48 HOURS AND ERODE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE IN
TIME TO WEAKEN STAN BEFORE FINAL LANDFALL. ACCORDINGLY THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE DIAGNOSES WEAK SHEAR AND FORECASTS A 65 KT HURRICANE
APPROACHING THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.5N 91.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 92.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 20.4N 94.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 20.2N 95.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 96.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 19.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#62 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2005 6:54 am

771
WTNT35 KNHC 031152
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2005

...STAN ORGANIZING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE....

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 355
MILES... 570 KM... EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR... AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT STAN IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...20.4 N... 91.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37041
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#63 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:32 am

TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
1500Z MON OCT 03 2005

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO
ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.3W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 45SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.3W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 91.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.2N 93.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 94.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.8N 95.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.5N 96.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 60SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 92.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes   
#neversummer

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37041
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#64 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:32 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2005

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED AS STAN CONTINUES WESTWARD IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO
ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES... 535 KM... EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 265 MILES... 430
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR. A MOTION
JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
STAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTER OF STAN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...20.4 N... 92.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes   
#neversummer

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37041
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#65 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:59 am

TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2005

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR 18Z. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE HAS BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. A STATION ON CAYOS ARCAS VERY NEAR
THE PRESUMED CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 997 MB. BECAUSE
THE OVERNIGHT AIRCRAFT FOUND VERY LITTLE WIND NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING INCREASED TO 40
KT AT THIS TIME. IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR JUST HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS
TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH LIGHT SHEAR...
GOOD OUTFLOW...AND WARM WATER. I ASSUME THE WIND FIELD IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CONTRACTING IN RESPONSE TO THE CHANGES IN THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN...AND ONCE THIS OCCURS A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION RATE
COULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A BIT MORE
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE. THE GFDL MODEL IS NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC...AND THIS COULD
BE DUE TO ISSUES...EITHER REAL OR IMAGINED...WITH TOPOGRAPHY HAVING
A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE NEAR LANDFALL.

THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL MAINTAIN ENOUGH
RIDGING IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO TAKE STAN...OR AT
LEAST ITS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...INLAND INTO MEXICO. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE SLOWS OR STALLS THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HOWEVER. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN AS STAN APPROACHES
THE COAST COULD CAUSE A SLOWER MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH LANDFALL IS NOT FORECAST FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS...TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTER. THIS IS THE REASON FOR ISSUING THE HURRICANE WARNING AT
THIS TIME.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.4N 92.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.2N 93.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 20.0N 94.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 19.8N 95.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 19.5N 96.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#66 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:51 pm

WTNT35 KNHC 031748
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005

...STAN MEANDERING AS IT STRENGTHENS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES... 535 KM... EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 265 MILES... 430
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...A MOTION
TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 MPH... 90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
STAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO THE CENTER OF
STAN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...20.3 N... 92.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#67 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2005 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005

...STAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL
LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 240
MILES... 385 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND STAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...20.0 N... 92.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37041
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#68 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 03, 2005 3:41 pm

TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
2100Z MON OCT 03 2005

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL
LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 92.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 45SE 0SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 92.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 92.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 93.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.4N 94.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.2N 95.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.1N 95.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 92.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#69 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2005 3:58 pm

WTNT45 KNHC 032039
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2005

ALTHOUGH THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...FROM 700 MB DUE TO AIRSPACE
RESTRICTIONS...WERE ONLY 41 KT...DROPSONDES IN THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 50 KT...WHICH
WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. STAN HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP COLD
CONVECTION SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THUS FAR THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING...WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL NOW TAKING STAN UP TO 92 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE GFDL
CONTINUES TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THIS
GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WIND FIELDS FROM
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOME DECOUPLING OF THE MID
AND LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF
LANDFALL...AND IF THIS OCCURS I WOULD EXPECT SOME LAST MINUTE
WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER.

EARLIER IN THE DAY STAN MOVED LITTLE...WITH THE CENTER LAGGING
PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX SUGGESTS THAT A GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASED ON A
LONGER-TERM AVERAGE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 255/6. MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH
OF STAN. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BRACKETED BY THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS...WHICH TAKE STAN WESTWARD TO A LANDFALL IN 36 TO 48
HOURS...AND THE GFDL...WHICH TAKES STAN SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A
LANDFALL IN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES...CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS...AND
A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.0N 92.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 19.7N 93.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 19.4N 94.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 19.2N 95.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 19.1N 95.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37041
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#70 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 03, 2005 6:51 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005

...STAN MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES... 340 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
STAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...20.1 N... 93.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes   
#neversummer

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37041
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#71 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
0300Z TUE OCT 04 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 93.4W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 45SE 0SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 93.4W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 93.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.7N 94.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.4N 94.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.1N 95.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 93.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes   
#neversummer

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37041
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#72 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:37 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005

...STAN STRENGTHENING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE SOON...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES... 305 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND STAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.9 N... 93.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes   
#neversummer

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37041
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#73 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:57 pm

TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2005

THERE HAS BEEN NO AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OF STAN OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE NEXT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR AROUND 0500Z.
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR/OVER THE
ESTIMATED CENTER BUT NO WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE LATEST DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE STATISTICAL RAPID INTENSITY
INDEX SHOWS A 49 PER CENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
DEFINED AS AN INCREASE OF 25 KT OVER 24 HOURS. MY OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS PROBABLY A CONSERVATIVE ONE. THE INTENSITY
PREDICTION BEYOND 36 HOURS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF
INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

WITHOUT THE AIRCRAFT...THE CENTER LOCATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR
ANOTHER 2 DAYS OR SO. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER STAN ACROSS THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
HOWEVER A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF COULD COMPLICATE THE STEERING PATTERN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT STAN COULD BECOME VERTICALLY DECOUPLED WHEN IT REACHES THE
COAST...AND THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL PART OF THE CIRCULATION DRAGGED
EASTWARD INTO THE ABOVEMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. THE TRACK MODELS
HAVE BECOME DIVERGENT AND SOME...E.G. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND NOGAPS...DO NOT A LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS INCREASING.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 19.9N 93.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 19.7N 94.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 19.4N 94.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 19.1N 95.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.9N 96.0W 85 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
0 likes   
#neversummer

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37041
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#74 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 04, 2005 1:01 am

TROPICAL STORM STAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

...STAN MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF
STAN HAS MOVED MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO THAN
FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO INDICATES
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING RAPIDLY... AND STAN COULD VERY
SOON BECOME A HURRICANE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY
AFTER 100 AM CDT TO UPDATE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THE
SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR 100 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
0 likes   
#neversummer

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37041
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#75 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 04, 2005 1:10 am

TROPICAL STORM STAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
0600Z TUE OCT 04 2005

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE
WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 94.1W AT 04/0600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 45SE 0SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 94.1W AT 04/0600Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 93.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 94.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.9N 94.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N 95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 94.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Matt-hurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11649
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Portland,OR
Contact:

#76 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 04, 2005 1:27 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 040622
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

...STAN ACCELERATES TOWARD THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO...
...VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD...

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE
WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES... 220 KM... EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF STAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STAN IS VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AND ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAN IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS A HURRICANE
OF CATEGORY ONE OR TWO INTENSITY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS FALLING RAPIDLY... WITH THE LATEST MEASUREMENT OF 982
MB...29.00 INCHES.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 94.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
0 likes   

User avatar
Matt-hurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11649
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Portland,OR
Contact:

#77 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 04, 2005 1:31 am

The weird thing is this system is moving west-southwest in bombing.
0 likes   

User avatar
Matt-hurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11649
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Portland,OR
Contact:

#78 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 04, 2005 1:31 am

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM STAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR STAN. THE TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER
OF STAN TO THE COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... MORE QUICKLY THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE STAN WILL REACH THE
COAST EVEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
ALSO SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... REQUIRING AN EXTENSION OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING EASTWARD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO
BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY FALLING CENTRAL PRESSURE.
THE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FOR POINTS OFFSHORE OR
NEAR THE COAST.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0600Z 19.3N 94.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 19.0N 94.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 18.9N 94.9W 80 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 18.7N 95.2W 90 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.5N 95.5W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
0 likes   

bombarderoazul
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 186
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:12 pm

#79 Postby bombarderoazul » Tue Oct 04, 2005 1:32 am

It's almost a hurricane, Wow!
0 likes   

mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#80 Postby mtm4319 » Tue Oct 04, 2005 4:00 am

And it now is a hurricane.

------------

Hurricane Stan Advisory Number 13

Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on October 04, 2005


...Stan becomes a hurricane as it nears the Gulf Coast of Mexico...

At 4 am CDT...0900z...the government of Mexico has changed the
northern portion of the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm
Warning...from north of Palma Sola to Cabo Rojo. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.


A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Gulf Coast of Mexico
from Palma Sola southward and eastward to chilitepec. A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 4 am CDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Stan was located near
latitude 18.8 north... longitude 94.4 west or about 120 miles...
195 km... east-southeast of Veracruz Mexico.


Stan is moving toward the southwest near 12 mph... 19 km/hr. A
continued southwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is expected today. On this track... Stan is expected to make
landfall within the warning area later today.


Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Stan is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible before
landfall.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb...29.00 inches.

Stan is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rainfall over portions
of southeastern Mexico...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


Repeating the 4 am CDT position...18.8 N... 94.4 W. Movement
toward...southwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 982 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 am
CDT.


Forecaster Knabb
0 likes   


Return to “2005”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests