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cycloneye
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#21 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2005 12:52 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND
ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN STATIONERY... BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION
IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY
OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED NORTH OF
THE CENTER BRIEFLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...58 KM/HR.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO
BETTER ASSESS THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 85.8 W. MOVEMENT
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

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#22 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sat Oct 01, 2005 12:58 pm

It looks like 20L will become Stan prior to hitting the Yucatan with the information given in this advisory. The Buoy vs. Plane observations will be interesting.
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#23 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2005 3:34 pm

993
WTNT25 KNHC 012026
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
2100Z SAT OCT 01 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 86.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.8N 87.9W...INLAND EASTERN YUCATAN
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.4N 89.8W...INLAND WESTERN YUCATAN
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.0N 91.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.4N 93.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.6N 96.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 99.0W...INLAND EASTERN MEXICO
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 86.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART
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#24 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2005 3:39 pm

Image
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#25 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 01, 2005 3:43 pm

So now that hurricane "possibility" is now the official forecast.
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#26 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2005 3:48 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM... SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO
AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... BUT A FASTER MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR... IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO
SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED NORTH OF
THE CENTER BRIEFLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 MPH...54 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS
WESTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...19.2 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


Yes hurricane status is forecast now before it makes the second landfall.
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#27 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 01, 2005 3:58 pm

Track is much farther south... looks like South Texas won't even see clouds from it.
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#28 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2005 3:59 pm

WTNT45 KNHC 012058
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON FOUND A SMALL SURFACE
CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF WHERE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THE LARGER-SCALE CENTER OF ROTATION IS LOCATED. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 42056 ALSO INDICATE VEERING SURFACE
WINDS... WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATION MAY BE
PASSING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE BUOY. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB
SUGGEST THAT A BROADER CIRCULATION CENTER IS EITHER LOCATED OR
FORMING NORTHEAST OF THE VORTEX MESSAGE POSITION. THE ADVISORY
POSITION IS A COMPROMISE OF ALL THE SMALL SWIRLS AND LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE LARGE-SCALE ROTATION NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. HOWEVER... ANY ONE OF THE SMALLER
CIRCULATIONS COULD BECOME MORE DOMINANT IF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS
NEARBY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A 31-KT SUSTAINED
WIND REPORTED EARLIER BY NOAA BUOY 42056.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 255/05. THE VARIOUS
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE DEPRESSION VERY
WELL... ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS. HOWEVER... THE
GENERAL TREND IN ALL OF THE MODELS IS FOR THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MORE WESTWARD AND
SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION HAS RESULTED IN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
BAM MODELS... AND AS RESULT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE UNTIL A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DEVELOPS.

EXCLUDING LAND INTERACTION... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO
OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL INCREASES THE INTENSITY TO 86 KT BY 72 HOURS
AND 94 KT BY 96 HOURS DUE TO VERY WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR.
THE 12Z GFDL MODEL LOSES THE CYCLONE BY 24 HOURS... WHICH IS NOT
UNUSUAL FOR SYSTEMS THAT ARE INITIALIZED WITH 25 KT WINDS. THE 18Z
GFDL WILL LIKELY BE MORE ROBUST SINCE IT WAS INITIALIZED WITH 30 KT
SURFACE WINDS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 19.2N 86.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 19.8N 87.9W 35 KT...INLAND ERN YUCATAN
24HR VT 02/1800Z 20.4N 89.8W 25 KT...INLAND WRN YUCATAN
36HR VT 03/0600Z 21.0N 91.8W 35 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 03/1800Z 21.4N 93.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.6N 96.2W 65 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 21.0N 99.0W 30 KT...INLAND ERN MEXICO
120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
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#29 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Oct 01, 2005 5:06 pm

Brent wrote:Track is much farther south... looks like South Texas won't even see clouds from it.


Bummer. The North Texas area could've used the rain for that system.
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#30 Postby artist » Sat Oct 01, 2005 6:37 pm

never know - one of those other circulations could take over and bring it further north - who knows at this point!
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#31 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2005 6:49 pm

575
WTNT35 KNHC 012348
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM... SOUTHEAST OF
TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL
MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD... BUT A FASTER MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC
MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT. DURING
THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER
BRIEFLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH...53 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS
WESTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...19.2 N... 86.7 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#32 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 01, 2005 8:14 pm

This system is starting to wrap up really good now. I think we will have a tropical storm soon. The quastion is who will be Stan...
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#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:36 pm

WTNT35 KNHC 020234
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY APPROACHING THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST
OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO
AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION
IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY STILL
OCCUR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL. SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS
WESTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#34 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:38 pm

020233
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
0300Z SUN OCT 02 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 87.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 87.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.3N 90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.8N 92.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.0N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 87.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#35 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:40 pm

Track even farther south:

Image
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#36 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:51 pm


646
WTNT45 KNHC 020247
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY REMAINS BROAD THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN A
POORLY CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE CENTER IS A LITTLE HARD TO FIND IN INFRARED IMAGERY...SO THE
INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/5. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND EVENING RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS LOW/MID/LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF
THE DEPRESSION...WHICH IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK. AFTER 24-36 HR...A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO TURN WESTWARD OR
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF FORECASTS OF
HOW THE PATTERN AROUND THE DEPRESSION WILL EVOLVE. SOME MODELS
STALL THE DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE OTHERS MOVE
IT INTO MEXICO. OTHERS DISSIPATE IT AS A NEW SYSTEM FORMS EAST OF
THE DEPRESSION IN THE CARIBBEAN...OR NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION
ALONG A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OF
MOVING THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO... ALBEIT AT A
SLOWER SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WILL HAPPEN IS DECREASING.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR WHILE
THE CYCLONE IS OVER WATER...AS VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON YUCATAN...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND AND RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. EVEN WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHIPS CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFDL RUN DOES NOT
STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE ABOVE 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES
THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AFTER
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 84 HR. SHOULD THAT LANDFALL NOT OCCUR OR BE
DELAYED...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 19.3N 87.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 03/0000Z 20.3N 90.2W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.8N 92.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 20.5N 96.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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#37 Postby tornadochaser86 » Sat Oct 01, 2005 11:19 pm

i say it becomes ts after it crosses yucatan
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#38 Postby tornadochaser86 » Sat Oct 01, 2005 11:20 pm

ya this has been one crazy season
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#39 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 01, 2005 11:21 pm

tornadochaser86 wrote:ya this has been one crazy season


Your talking to yourself. :P
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#40 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 02, 2005 1:00 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

...DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST
OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 70 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO
AND ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
DEPRESSION WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AND MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR MOST OF TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING... AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS WESTERN
CUBA.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...19.5 N... 87.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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