Tammy Advisories

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Tammy Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 5:25 am

Ok here we go again.
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Oct 06, 2005 9:24 pm, edited 21 times in total.
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#2 Postby WindRunner » Wed Oct 05, 2005 5:38 am

It's Tammy now (per backup NRL), need a name change before the first advisory!
Last edited by WindRunner on Wed Oct 05, 2005 5:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 5:39 am

WindRunner wrote:It's Tammy now (per NRL), need a name change before the first advisory!


Done. :)
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#4 Postby bvigal » Wed Oct 05, 2005 5:58 am

Morning guys! :D

Hmm, really wondering right now about if we really do have Tammy, or TD21. I know FNMOC has it, but they frequently have problems with naming of systems. Since the rather firmly-worded TWO at 5:30, still nothing available, except the previously-issued formation alert.
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#5 Postby bvigal » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:14 am

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#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:22 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
Graphic
WTNT01 KNGU 051131
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL STORM TAMMY (21L) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 27.3N 79.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N 79.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 29.4N 81.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 30.9N 82.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 31.9N 83.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 32.8N 84.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 80.0W, OR APPROX 99NM SSE OF
CAPE CANAVERAL, FL. 12FT SEAS: 180NE, 180SE, 000SW, 180NW.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20L (STAN) WARNINGS
(WTNT02 KNGU) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT

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#7 Postby senorpepr » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:31 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 051121
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS.

AT 730 AM EDT...1130Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 730 AM EDT...1130Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES... EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 155 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.

TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK... THE
CENTER OF TAMMY WILL BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TODAY. DUE TO THE ANGLE OF APPROACH TO THE COASTLINE...
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIME OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER ARE
UNCERTAIN. ADDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 730 AM EDT POSITION...28.4 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:44 am

Image
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:55 am



WTNT41 KNHC 051151
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITHIN
THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IS
SUFFICIENT TO CLASSIFY IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WSR-88D RADAR
IMAGERY BEGAN TO DEPICT A CLOSED CIRCULATION AFTER ABOUT 06Z THIS
MORNING... WHICH BECAME WELL-DEFINED BY 08Z ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF
MELBOURNE FLORIDA. SURFACE WIND DIRECTION OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
CIRCULATION ON RADAR... ALTHOUGH THE WINDS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF
THE CENTER ARE WEAK. ALL OF THE STRONGER WINDS AND CONVECTION
OCCUPY THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM... MOST OF IT WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS OF 30 KT HAVE
BEEN COMMON THIS MORNING... BUT MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF THE REGIONS OF
STRONGEST RADAR ECHOES... SO IT SEEMS SAFE TO ASSUME THAT TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN AREAS OF DEEPEST CONVECTION.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT.

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY IS MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 335/14 BASED
PRIMARILY ON RADAR FIXES. THE STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW OVER THE GULF TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT
WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES OFFSHORE.
THEREFORE... ONLY A SUBTLE BEND TO THE WEST IN THE HEADING DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS FORECAST... WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. DUE TO THE ANGLE OF APPROACH OF THE CENTER OF TAMMY
TO THE COASTLINE... IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY THE LANDFALL TIME OR
LOCATION OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER... IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO FOCUS
ON THE LARGE AREA OF WINDS AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER... WHICH NECESSITATES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A
LONG STRETCH OF COASTLINE. SINCE TAMMY IS UNDER MODERATE SOUTHERLY
SHEAR... ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY... AND THE
ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN WILL PROBABLY PERSIST.

TAMMY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1130Z 28.4N 80.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 29.4N 81.1W 40 KT...NEAR COASTLINE
24HR VT 06/0600Z 30.9N 82.4W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/1800Z 31.9N 83.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 07/0600Z 32.8N 84.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED


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#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 9:36 am

TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

AT 13Z THE CENTER OF TAMMY PASSED OVER NOAA BUOY 41009...WHICH
REPORTED A PRESSURE JUST UNDER 1004 MB. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY
AND NWS RADAR INDICATE THAT TAMMY IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT
12 KT. THIS RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK MAY BE A RESPONSE TO
THE ASYMMETRIC DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION...WHICH REMAINS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. TAMMY IS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TAMMY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THE CENTER WILL JUMP OR
REFORM TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION. THE 00Z
CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON TAMMY
OVERNIGHT...AND I AM GIVING THIS MODEL MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT
OF WEIGHT THIS MORNING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BECAUSE TAMMY IS MOVING
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA COAST...AND BECAUSE MOST OF THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...THE
PRECISE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LANDFALL OF THE CENTER IS OF
RELATIVELY LITTLE IMPORTANCE.

DOPPLER RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS ALOFT...ABOUT
35 KT. BASED ON EARLIER SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS THE INTENSITY IS
PRESUMED TO STILL BE NEAR 35 KT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE STORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE JUST
A LITTLE BIT BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO
PREVENT RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

TAMMY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 28.9N 80.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 30.2N 81.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 31.4N 82.6W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 07/0000Z 32.3N 83.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED



The discussion came out first.
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#11 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 05, 2005 9:42 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

...TAMMY MOVING NORTHWARD OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 130 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.

TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TAMMY WILL BE
SLOWLY APPROACHING THE FLORIDA COAST LATER TODAY. DUE TO THE ANGLE
OF APPROACH TO THE COASTLINE...THE SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIME OF
LANDFALL OF THE CENTER ARE UNCERTAIN. A DDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.9 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#12 Postby chadtm80 » Wed Oct 05, 2005 9:58 am

Boy sure dosent look like she is moving 14mph
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#13 Postby HurricaneGirl » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:13 am

Lot's of rain headed our way! My rainfall guage will runneth over. :eek:
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#14 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 05, 2005 12:43 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

...TAMMY A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT PARALLELS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA.

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. BECAUSE TAMMY IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON A TRACK ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...THE SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIME OF
LANDFALL OF THE CENTER ARE UNCERTAIN. ADDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...29.4 N... 80.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 3:32 pm

WTNT31 KNHC 052031
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

...TAMMY SKIRTING THE FLORIDA COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES CONCERNING POSSIBLE GALE WARNINGS OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 15 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.

TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF TAMMY SHOULD MOVE INLAND IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA OR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.1 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#16 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 05, 2005 3:35 pm

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212005
2100Z WED OCT 05 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES CONCERNING POSSIBLE GALE WARNINGS OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 81.2W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......225NE 185SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 81.2W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 80.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.4N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.2N 83.8W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 81.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 3:49 pm


767
WTNT41 KNHC 052048
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TAMMY FOUND PEAK FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT ABOUT 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THESE
DATA SUPPORT A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 45 KT. THE CREW MADE VISUAL
ESTIMATES OF 50 TO 55 KT IN A FEW SPOTS SO THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE
COULD BE A SHADE LOW. SINCE THE CENTER IS ONLY A FEW HOURS FROM
LANDFALL...LITTLE ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING WELL-REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...ONLY A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY AFTER THE
CENTER MOVES INLAND.

THE CENTER MAKE A JAB AT THE COASTLINE LATE THIS MORNING BUT THEN
RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12.
TAMMY REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TAMMY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 30.1N 81.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 31.4N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 06/1800Z 32.2N 83.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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#18 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:32 pm

*UPDATE*

---IMPORTANT NOTICE---

>>>The 8PM Advisory On Tammy From The National Hurricane Center Will Be Posted Shortly In About 20 Minutes Or Less<<<
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#19 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:37 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:*UPDATE*

---IMPORTANT NOTICE---

>>>The 8PM Advisory On Tammy From The National Hurricane Center Will Be Posted Shortly In About 20 Minutes Or Less<<<


We know...
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:38 pm

Image

Landfall has occurred!
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