Vince Advisories

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tropicana
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#41 Postby tropicana » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:40 pm

And this from a Portugal News Service Organization:-

Tropical storm Vince due to hit Portugal 6am
Tropical storm Vince is expected to hit Portugal at 6am Tuesday morning according to meteorologist José da Costa Teso. Vince is currently making its way to our coast line at 37 kilometres an hour he revealed in press conference Monday. The Civil Protection service has advised people to keep all doors and windows closed during the duration of the storm and for drivers to be extremely cautious when driving on the roads due to potential flooding.

-justin-
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#42 Postby fasterdisaster » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:42 pm

I think that intensity should be up around 45 knots in my opinion.

Question: If this even stays a tropical depression up until landfall, won't this be the first tropical cyclone ever to make landfall in Europe?
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#43 Postby krysof » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:44 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:I think that intensity should be up around 45 knots in my opinion.

Question: If this even stays a tropical depression up until landfall, won't this be the first tropical cyclone ever to make landfall in Europe?


I don't think it's the first to make landfall in Europe, but the first to make landfall in southern europe, and Spain. I'm not sure but I think there was a tropical cyclone to effect Ireland or the UK.
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#44 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:44 pm

What no tropical storm warning or watch for Spain???????????? :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#45 Postby senorpepr » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:46 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:What no tropical storm warning or watch for Spain???????????? :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:


Well... A) Portugal would require a watch/warning before Spain, B) those repsective governments decide to issue watches and warnings. Most likely they have things covered already with high wind warnings.
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#46 Postby Coredesat » Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:35 am

Vince officially becomes the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Spain:

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005

...VINCE MAKING LANDFALL IN SPAIN AS IT BEGINS TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICES ON THE REMNANTS OF VINCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 7.1 WEST OR ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN NEAR HUELVA. VINCE IS THE FIRST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SPAIN.

VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH
...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...TAKING
THE CENTER OF VINCE FARTHER INLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS VINCE CONTINUES TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
VINCE AND ITS REMNANTS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...37.2 N... 7.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

--------------------

000
WTNT43 KNHC 110829
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005

VINCE'S DATA T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z WERE NON-EXISTENT...
WITH JUST A VERY SMALL AREA OF COLD CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. NEITHER OF TWO SCATTEROMETER PASSES...ONE OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT 18Z AND ONE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AT
00Z...SHOWED ANY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND INDEED THE
SECOND PASS CALLS INTO QUESTION THE EARLIER 40 KT SHIP REPORT. A
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 06Z SHOWED SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 35-40 KT VECTORS...
BUT CLOUD MOTIONS AND COASTAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
QUIKSCAT VECTORS ARE CONTAMINATED. VINCE IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY. WITH NO DATA T
NUMBERS...CONTINUING VINCE'S STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANY
LONGER IS UNWARRANTED. AS THE SHORT HAPPY LIFE OF VINCE IS NOW
OVER...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANTS OF VINCE
SHOULD CONTINUE ON A TRACK NEAR 065/20 UNTIL DISSPATION OR
ABSORPTION DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE EVER MAKING LANDFALL
ON THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM FARO
PORTUGAL...THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
PORTUGAL...BEFORE BECOMING THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SPAIN.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 37.2N 7.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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#47 Postby P.K. » Tue Oct 11, 2005 5:06 am

senorpepr wrote:
hurricanefloyd5 wrote:What no tropical storm warning or watch for Spain???????????? :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:


Well... A) Portugal would require a watch/warning before Spain, B) those repsective governments decide to issue watches and warnings. Most likely they have things covered already with high wind warnings.


I doubt they even have tropical storm warnings in their lists of various warnings they can issue. :lol:
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#48 Postby HurricaneGirl » Tue Oct 11, 2005 6:35 am

The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plains! :D
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#49 Postby HenkL » Tue Oct 11, 2005 7:40 am

At 12Z in Spain wind speeds at Jerez de la Frontera 54 knots, Moron de la Frontera 49 knots. And closer to the 'center' of ex-Vince: Sevilla 31 knots with pressure 1007,4 hPa and 42mm rain in last 6 hours.
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#50 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 11, 2005 7:50 am

HenkL wrote:At 12Z in Spain wind speeds at Jerez de la Frontera 54 knots, Moron de la Frontera 49 knots. And closer to the 'center' of ex-Vince: Sevilla 31 knots with pressure 1007,4 hPa and 42mm rain in last 6 hours.


Ahh... lovely Morón de la Frontera. I used to forecast for their a few years ago.

LEMO 111200Z 20028G40KT 8000 -RA BKN015 OVC022 21/21 Q1009 NOSIG;


Earlier, visibility has down to 1000m (5/8mi) in moderate rain.
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#51 Postby HenkL » Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:01 am

The wind speeds I gave earlier are probably too high. The source for the SYNOP codes gave windindicator for m/s. But another source gave same SYNOP with windindicator for knots, and that's in better agreement with the METAR observation Senorpepr posted.
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#52 Postby TheEuropean » Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:08 am

HenkL wrote:The wind speeds I gave earlier are probably too high. The source for the SYNOP codes gave windindicator for m/s. But another source gave same SYNOP with windindicator for knots, and that's in better agreement with the METAR observation Senorpepr posted.


Yes, they were too high, here are the correct winds:

Highest mean winds 12:00 UTC / kts
28 08451 LEJR Jerez Frontera N36 45 W006 04 27m
28 08397 LEMO Moron de la F. N37 09 W005 37 87m
19 08554 LPFR Faro N37 01 W007 58 7m
16 08390 LEZL Sevilla N37 25 W005 54 34m

Moron had a peak gust of 40 kts.

And here is Jerez at 11:30 UTC:
08451 LEJR Jerez Frontera N36 45 W006 04 27m MSL
21031kts/gust 44kts 7km 60-RA SCT014 BKN023 OVC030 21.0/19.0°C
Last edited by TheEuropean on Tue Oct 11, 2005 9:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#53 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:13 am

Not the best webcams, but here are some traffic cameras out of Sevilla: http://www.trajano.com/x_camaras.htm
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#54 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 11, 2005 9:58 am

LOL... looks like the observer at Moron de la Frontera mistyped his/her observation:

LEMO 111400Z 24022G337KT 200V270 7000 -RA BKN012 OVC025 23/21 Q1010 NOSIG;

I believe they meant to type 37kt instead. :wink:
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#55 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 11, 2005 9:59 am

:eek: :lol:
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