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cycloneye
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#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2005 9:25 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

...VINCE PASSING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...
...THREAT TO SHIPPING...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VINCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 17.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND ABOUT
565 MILES... 910 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...34.5 N... 17.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$



289
WTNT23 KNHC 100222
TCMAT3
HURRICANE VINCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232005
0300Z MON OCT 10 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 17.8W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 17.8W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 18.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 35.8N 15.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 38.0N 12.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 40.0N 8.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 17.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH

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#22 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2005 9:27 pm

HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

THE EYE OF VINCE IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED...AND THE AMOUNT OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS DECREASED.
MOREOVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING INDICATIVE OF INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR AS THE DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ERODED OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ALL OF THIS IS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKENING
TREND IS IMMINENT...IF IT IS NOT ALREADY UNDERWAY. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN
INTENSITY OF 65 KT...ALTHOUGH AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NEVER
QUITE SUPPORTED HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN 24-36 HOURS...VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 35 KT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 20 DEG C. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING...WITH VINCE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
AS IT NEARS THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
COLD FRONT BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

INITIAL MOTION...055/6...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
HEADING. A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...AND CAUSE VINCE
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO NOGAPS AND THE
NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE EVEN FARTHER TO
THE RIGHT OF THE NEW NHC TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 34.5N 17.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 35.8N 15.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 38.0N 12.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 40.0N 8.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 09, 2005 9:28 pm

WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME YOU SAW THIS?

Image
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#24 Postby gotoman38 » Sun Oct 09, 2005 9:54 pm

HURAKAN wrote:WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME YOU SAW THIS?

Image


nevah!
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#25 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2005 9:57 pm

Let's not replie in this thread as it is for advisories only.Replies can be posted at the Vince thread.of comments,sat pics,models thread.
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Coredesat

#26 Postby Coredesat » Mon Oct 10, 2005 4:44 am

000
WTNT33 KNHC 100828
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005

..VINCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VINCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 16.6 WEST OR ABOUT 620
MILES... 995 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES...OR ABOUT 145
MILES... 235 KM... NORTH OF THE MADIERA ISLANDS.

VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR. SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND VINCE IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
...130 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 16.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#27 Postby Coredesat » Mon Oct 10, 2005 4:44 am

000
WTNT43 KNHC 100828
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005

VINCE HAS BECOME RAPIDLY LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AS A BLAST OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS OVERTAKEN THE CYCLONE. CONVECTION IS BEING
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...AND THE EYE HAS DISINTEGRATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WITH VINCE OVER 23C WATERS AND
THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...A CONTINUED RAPID DECLINE IS
EXPECTED. THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW VINCE BECOMING
ABSORBED OR DISSIPATING WITHIN 24 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...BUT VINCE COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BEFORE
THEN.

VINCE HAS ACCELERATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW 070/10. AS THE CONVECTION AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUE
TO DECOUPLE...A SLIGHT TURN BACK TO THE LEFT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
CENTER DISSIPATES. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND GFDN
SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 34.8N 16.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 36.4N 14.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$
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#28 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:40 am

TROPICAL STORM VINCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232005
1500Z MON OCT 10 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 14.2W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 14.2W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 15.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 36.4N 11.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...ASBORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.9N 14.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#29 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:40 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005

...VINCE WEAKENING AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD...

AT 11 AM EDT... 1500Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VINCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 14.2 WEST OR ABOUT
740 MILES... 1195 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES... OR ABOUT
175 MILES... 280 KM... NORTHEAST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.

VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 21 MPH... 33 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...
75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TODAY... AND VINCE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...34.9 N... 14.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#30 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:49 am

WTNT43 KNHC 101441
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005

THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED AS NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR HAS BLOWN NEARLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE EAST. SOME
NEW CONVECTION HAS RESUMED ON THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CENTER... BUT VINCE IS CLEARLY ON A FAST DECLINE. THE
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT... MORE IN LINE WITH THE DVORAK DATA
T NUMBERS THAN THE MUCH HIGHER CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES... DUE
TO THE GREATLY DIMINISHED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO THE SHEAR...
VINCE IS OVER SSTS NEAR 22C... SO IT WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN ROUGHLY 12 HOURS.

VINCE IS MOVING QUICKLY ON A HEADING JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST... 080
DEGREES AT ABOUT 18 KT... WHICH IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK. THE CIRCULATION CENTER WILL PROBABLY BE PULLED A
LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD BY THE APPROACHING FRONT UNTIL THE EVENTUAL
REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES OR IS ABSORBED BY THE FRONT.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 34.9N 14.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 36.4N 11.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED

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#31 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:12 pm

Thread has been locked...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005

...VINCE ABOUT TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AS IT RACES EASTWARD...
...REMNANTS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE NEAR SOUTHERN PORTUGAL...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VINCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 11.6 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES... 275 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO DE SAO VICENTE OR THE
SOUTHWESTERNMOST TIP OF PORTUGAL.

VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH... 41 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THE REMNANT LOW OF VINCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN PORTUGAL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED... AND VINCE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHORTLY AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...35.9 N... 11.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#32 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:16 pm

I forgot to leave it open before I went offline but power went off and I could not be here in time to open it before 5. :roll:
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#33 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:I forgot to leave it open before I went offline but power went off and I could not be here in time to open it before 5. :roll:


It's no problem really... I figured you must have lost power.
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#34 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:34 pm

Brent wrote:
cycloneye wrote:I forgot to leave it open before I went offline but power went off and I could not be here in time to open it before 5. :roll:


It's no problem really... I figured you must have lost power.


Brent anyway I think that the final advisorie will be written at 11 PM. :)
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#35 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Brent wrote:
cycloneye wrote:I forgot to leave it open before I went offline but power went off and I could not be here in time to open it before 5. :roll:


It's no problem really... I figured you must have lost power.


Brent anyway I think that the final advisorie will be written at 11 PM. :)


Yep... I'm pretty sure of that.
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#36 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:57 pm

Still has a well defined LLC...With a ship report of 41 mph winds. So lets get it inland before the down grade.
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#37 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:29 pm

Still a storm and not the final advisory.

We're about to make history(again). :D

TROPICAL STORM VINCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232005
0300Z TUE OCT 11 2005

INTERESTS IN AND NEAR EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTUGAL... SOUTHWESTERN
SPAIN... AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF VINCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 9.5W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 100SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 9.5W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 10.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 37.9N 6.1W...DISSIPATING OVER SWRN SPAIN
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED OVER NORTHEASTERN SPAIN

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 9.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART
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#38 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:29 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON OCT 10 2005

...VINCE STILL MAINTAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN PORTUGAL AND SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN...

INTERESTS IN AND NEAR EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTUGAL... SOUTHWESTERN
SPAIN... AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF VINCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VINCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 9.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES...85 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO DE SAO VICENTE OR THE
SOUTHWESTERNMOST TIP OF PORTUGAL.

VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. VINCE
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTS PORTUGAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
SPAIN AROUND SUNRISE LOCAL TIME TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS... A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF
VINCE REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS... WILL BE POSSIBLE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTUGAL... SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN... AND NORTHWESTERN
MOROCCO.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...36.4 N... 9.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#39 Postby krysof » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:30 pm

it's about to make landfall, what an incredibly unusual season!! :eek:
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#40 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:31 pm

081
WTNT43 KNHC 110227
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005

WELL... THE LONG AND STRANGE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES AS
TROPICAL STORM VINCE BEARS DOWN ON THE SOUTHERN IBERIAN PENINSULA
AND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AND WERE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT AT 00Z FROM ALL THREE
AGENCIES. HOWEVER... A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH TOPS
TO -50C HAS REDEVELOPED SINCE THEN ABOUT 50 NMI NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ALSO... A LATE ARRIVING 10/2100Z
OBSERVATION FROM SHIP V2ON3 LOCATED ABOUT 90 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41 KT. QUALITY-CONTROL CHECKS
BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE THE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA
WERE VIABLE... SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT AS IT
WAS 18Z SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CLOUD
PATTERN NOTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME. THE
34-KT AND 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON THE REPORT FROM
SHIP V20N3 AND OTHER NEARBY SHIPS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/20. VINCE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR VINCE TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
TO NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN
PORTUGAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN BETWEEN 06-12Z. AFTER
MOVING INLAND... VINCE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER INTERIOR SPAIN. HOWEVER... WINDS MAY STILL BE
NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE IN 12-HOURS IN THE STRAIT OF GILBRATAR
DUE TO THE STRONG FUNNELING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE... WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THAT AREA WITH
EASTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS... EVEN IF VINCE IS AN
EXTREMELY RARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS PART OF THE WORLD.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 36.4N 9.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 37.9N 6.1W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
24HR VT 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND OVER SPAIN



Well history once again is made in this 2005 season and Stewart says about this season at first sentence of discussion.
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