Tropical Depression 16-E at EPAC=Last Advisorie

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Tropical Depression 16-E at EPAC=Last Advisorie

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2005 9:44 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (EP162005) ON 20051015 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051015 0000 051015 1200 051016 0000 051016 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 101.2W 11.2N 102.4W 11.5N 103.6W 12.4N 104.7W
BAMM 11.0N 101.2W 11.1N 102.2W 11.1N 103.2W 11.4N 104.4W
LBAR 11.0N 101.2W 11.4N 102.1W 11.7N 103.0W 12.7N 104.0W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 33KTS 34KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 33KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051017 0000 051018 0000 051019 0000 051020 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 105.6W 17.3N 107.2W 19.7N 108.1W 21.6N 106.8W
BAMM 12.0N 105.5W 13.1N 108.3W 13.0N 111.9W 11.8N 116.3W
LBAR 13.6N 105.1W 14.2N 107.3W 13.3N 110.3W 10.5N 113.6W
SHIP 36KTS 41KTS 45KTS 44KTS
DSHP 36KTS 41KTS 45KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 101.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 100.8W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 100.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Advisory shortly.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:42 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2005 9:54 pm

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast/Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 03:00Z on October 15, 2005



tropical depression center located near 11.0n 101.2w at 15/0300z
position accurate within 25 nm

present movement stationary

estimated minimum central pressure 1008 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 11.0n 101.2w at 15/0300z
at 15/0000z center was located near 11.0n 101.2w

forecast valid 15/1200z 11.0n 101.9w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 16/0000z 11.0n 102.6w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 16/1200z 11.0n 103.2w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 17/0000z 11.0n 103.9w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 35ne 35se 35sw 35nw.

Forecast valid 18/0000z 11.0n 105.3w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 35ne 35se 35sw 35nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 200 nm
on day 4 and 250 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 19/0000z 11.0n 106.6w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.

Outlook valid 20/0000z 11.0n 108.0w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 11.0n 101.2w

next advisory at 15/0900z

forecaster Stewart


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#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2005 9:59 pm

Image

It will be a very slow mover.
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2005 10:12 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2005

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
ABOUT 400 NMI SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES
HAVE ALSO IMPROVED... AS HAVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TAFB
REPORTED A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT WITH A DATA
T-NUMBER OF T2.4/35 KT... AND THE 3HR ODT AVERAGE WAS T2.9/44 KT
WITH A PEAK RAW ODT VALUE OF T3.5/55 KT. HOWEVER... CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED IN THE CURVED BAND ON THE WEST SIDE SINCE 00Z... SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY...OR POSSIBLY A SLOW DRIFT
TOWARD THE WEST. THE NHC MODELS ARE WIDELY DIVERGENT WITH A MOTION
BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFDL TAKES THE DEPRESSION
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY AND INTENSIFIES IT INTO AN 81-KT
HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM
RELATIVELY WEAK AND EVEN DISSIPATE IT BY 48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AT THIS TIME AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... ONLY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE GENERAL TREND INDICATED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY... THE GFDL IS QUITE ROBUST IN INTENSIFYING
THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD LESSER INTENSIFICATION WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN
SINCE 00Z YESTERDAY WHEN IT WAS FORECASTING A 95-KT HURRICANE.
GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE... AND THE SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN WHICH THE
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR VERY
MODEST INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL WHICH ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 44 KT BY 96 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 11.0N 101.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 11.0N 101.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 11.0N 102.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 11.0N 103.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.9W 40 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 11.0N 105.3W 40 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 11.0N 106.6W 40 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 11.0N 108.0W 40 KT
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#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 14, 2005 10:26 pm

Wahoo!!! Come on Eastern Pacific!!!
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#6 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 14, 2005 10:33 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wahoo!!! Come on Eastern Pacific!!!


We're about to have Wilma over here... :D
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:25 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
REMAINING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND
AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THERE IS POOR TO FAIR
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/2. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE AREA
NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W-125W. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS TROUGH SHOULD FILL STARTING IN ABOUT 48-72 HR...AND THE RIDGE
SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BUILD WESTWARD. THIS MEANS IN THE LONGER
TERM THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TAKE A WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...THINGS
ARE LESS CLEAR IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GFDL...BAMD...AND BAMM CALL
FOR AN INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
THE TROUGH. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
MOVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD. THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR
LITTLE MOTION AS THE SYSTEM GETS STRETCHED ALONG THE ITCZ. GIVEN
THE SPREAD...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW MOTION
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH IN DEFERENCE TO THE TROUGH AND THE GFDL FORECAST.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AS TO HOW MUCH. THE GFS FORECAST A BURST OF
SHEAR IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE TO VALUES THAT WOULD LET
THE CYCLONE STRENGTHEN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CANADIAN FORECASTS
A MUCH MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WITH STRONGER SHEAR AND A LONGER
TIME BEFORE IT DECREASES. THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE
DEPRESSION AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL SEEN NEARBY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MAY ALSO BE INHIBITING FACTORS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS
BE ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE LESS BULLISH SHIPS MODEL RATHER THAN
LEANING TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL. WHILE THE FORECAST
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AT 96-120 HR...IT IS STILL A
LITTLE BELOW WHAT SHIPS IS FORECASTING.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 11.0N 101.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 11.1N 102.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 11.1N 102.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 11.2N 103.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 11.3N 104.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 11.5N 105.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 11.5N 107.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 11.5N 108.5W 45 KT
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:13 am

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 3


Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on October 15, 2005



the depression consists of a very small circulation and little deep
convection. In fact...there was not much to begin with. T-numbers
have come down and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25
knots. Latest Quickscat shows no strong winds and no circulation.
Because of the previous forecast and continuity...I am forecasting
a little bit of intensification...but it appears that a weakening
trend observed during the past few hours should continue since
shear is expected to increase. There is a chance that depression
could become a remnant low very soon.
The depression has been moving little. However...as the ridge builds
to the north...the cyclone should begin to move slowly westward.
This is consistent with most of the track guidance derived from
models and the GFDL. However...global models weaken or dissipate
the cyclone.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 15/1500z 11.0n 101.5w 25 kt
12hr VT 16/0000z 11.0n 101.5w 25 kt
24hr VT 16/1200z 11.0n 102.0w 25 kt
36hr VT 17/0000z 11.0n 103.0w 35 kt
48hr VT 17/1200z 11.0n 104.0w 35 kt
72hr VT 18/1200z 11.0n 105.5w 35 kt
96hr VT 19/1200z 11.0n 107.0w 35 kt
120hr VT 20/1200z 11.0n 108.5w 35 kt



Depression could degenerate as soon as this afternoon.
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#9 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:14 am

TWC says this is the smallest Epac TD ever!!!!!!!1
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#10 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:01 pm

Where is it? :lol: It looks very sick.
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#11 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:03 pm

Is this thing dead?
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#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:05 pm

Image

:blowup:
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#13 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:11 pm

The thing looks better then that tropical low 24 right now. I say it becomes a tropical storm.
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#14 Postby Scorpion » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:19 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The thing looks better then that tropical low 24 right now. I say it becomes a tropical storm.
:roll: TD 24 looks way better.
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#15 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:21 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The thing looks better then that tropical low 24 right now. I say it becomes a tropical storm.


What are you talking about?!
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#16 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:28 pm

Well it looks better than it did this morning(at least what TWC showed of it).

Still, not impressive.
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#17 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:31 pm

Brent wrote:Well it looks better than it did this morning(at least what TWC showed of it).

Still, not impressive.


I know it isn't, but it looks more subtropical than tropical.
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#18 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:34 pm

16-e has cold convection over its LLC. Hardly weak to me.
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#19 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:35 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:16-e has cold convection over its LLC. Hardly weak to me.


Oh your jealous because the Atlantic is killing the EPAC.

When was our P name used? :wink: :P
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#20 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:36 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:16-e has cold convection over its LLC. Hardly weak to me.


No it doesn't. The convection's no colder than 24, and according to you that's "weak".
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