Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:44 pm

Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Oct 25, 2005 1:37 pm, edited 143 times in total.
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#2 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:47 pm

WELL, here we go!
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#3 Postby P.K. » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:48 pm

WTNT33 KNHC 152042
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAYBE REQUIRED FOR
FOR GRAND CAYMAN LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8
WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND
ABOUT 85 MILES... 140 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS
SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#4 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:49 pm

000
WTNT23 KNHC 152042
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
2100Z SAT OCT 15 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAYBE REQUIRED FOR
FOR GRAND CAYMAN LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.8W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
EYE DIAMETER 60 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.8W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 78.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA


$$
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#5 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:52 pm

000
WTNT43 KNHC 152046
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
CIRCULATION IS RATHER BROAD AND THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD
BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 MILES FROM THE INITIAL POINT IN THE ADVISORY.
THIS IS COMMON IN DEVELOPING SYSTEMS. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT DEVELOPED
A TIGHT INNER CORE YET. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS SO
FAR A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BOTH SHIPS AND THE
GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDL MAKES THIS CYCLONE A VERY
INTENSE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CUBA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...AND MORE ALONG THE
LINE OF THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BLOCKING ANY NORTHWARD
MOTION AND IS KEEPING VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS. BY THEN...A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE COULD DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...THE
UK...THE ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS MODELS. THE GFS DOES NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP THE CYCLONE AND DOES NOT CARRY THE SYSTEM
MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...BOTH GENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 17.6N 78.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 79.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 80.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.5N 81.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 17.5N 82.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 85 KT


$$
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#6 Postby chadtm80 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:53 pm

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#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:54 pm

Ok no replies here.All comments go to the TD24 Thread.
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#8 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:54 pm

Image
the cone or Dartboard for now.
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:26 pm

If any of you folks are waiting for the 8 PM Advisorie there is none because there are no watches or warnings posted anywhere so the six hour advisorie interval prevails.But it is expected that watches will be posted later tonight so the 3 hour interval advisories will start with the 2 AM one.
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#10 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:50 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products


NHC shows it turning to the N into in 5 days.

I think a U.S threat is very possible with this one.
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#11 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:43 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z SUN OCT 16 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 79.0W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 79.0W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 78.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.8N 79.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.6N 80.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N 80.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.8N 80.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 79.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#12 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:43 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

...SLOWLY MOVING DEPRESSION GRADUALLY ORGANIZING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
125 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#13 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:44 pm

Image
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#14 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:01 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

THE CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES AND DOES NOT YET HAVE
VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... BUT OUTER
BANDING FEATURES SEEM TO BE GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING. THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENVELOPE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED... AS IS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. A 23Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS HAD SOME 30-35 KT
VECTORS THAT ARE PROBABLY RAIN CONTAMINATED... SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AT ABOUT 225/3. THE WEAK STEERING RESULTS FROM THE
DEPRESSION BEING STUCK BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THIS RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE
FLOW AROUND THE GULF RIDGE APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY GREATER
INFLUENCE FOR NOW... AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE GULF
RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...
THE MODELS SHOW THE GULF RIDGE MIGRATING WESTWARD... LEAVING A
GROWING WEAKNESS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ALLOWING THE
WESTWARD-BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO BEGIN PUSHING THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD. SINCE THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR SO GRADUALLY... NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS... EXCEPT FOR
THE CANADIAN... FORECAST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO LEAVE THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS TO
ADJUST FOR THE INITIAL MOTION... THEN BACK ON TRACK THEREAFTER...
AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL.

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. EVEN THOUGH THE FORWARD MOTION WILL BE SLOW... THE
LARGE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPLY FUEL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK BENEATH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE COUPLED GFDL SYSTEM FORECASTS A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING TO GREATER
THAN 90 KT IN LESS THAN 72 HOURS... WHILE SHIPS SHOWS STEADY BUT
MORE CONSERVATIVE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BETWEEN AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.0N 79.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 16.8N 79.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 16.6N 80.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 16.6N 80.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 16.8N 80.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 81.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 82.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 83.0W 85 KT
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#15 Postby MGC » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:26 pm

I have a gut feeling this thing (I call TC things now because of Katrina) is going to ruin my Florida vacation. I guess I'll have to change course and head to the Smokies. If the NHC track verifies then this could be quite a mess for the Florida west coast. I hope it just goes into the Yucatan but I doubt it....MGC
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#16 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:45 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
125 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT A SLOW WEST TO
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEAK SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#17 Postby artist » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:49 am

sounds like soo-to-be Wilma! 35 mph! :eek: I'm afraid -here we go!
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#18 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Oct 16, 2005 1:04 am

Come on Wilma come on!!! Wahoooo!!!
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#19 Postby Recurve » Sun Oct 16, 2005 2:19 am

This is the thread for advisories. We're supposed to keep "Woo-hoo!" in the comments thread and not in the recon, advisories, and comments threads (I know, my bad too).
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#20 Postby James » Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:49 am

Tropical Depression Twenty-Four Advisory Number 3


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 16, 2005


...Tropical depression continues to slowly get better organized as
it drifts westward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea...

a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for all
of the Cayman Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area... generally within
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-four
was located near latitude 17.0 north... longitude 79.3 west or
about 200 miles... 325 km... southeast of Grand Cayman and about
140 miles... 225 km... southwest of Montego Bay Jamaica.

The depression is drifting toward the west near 2 mph... 4 km/hr.
A general west or southwestward motion of about 3 mph...6 km/hr...
is expected during the next 24 hours. However... steering currents
are forecast to remain weak so some erratic motion will be
possible.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast... and the depression
could become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

The depression is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches over
the Cayman Islands and Jamaica... with isolated totals of 8 to 12
inches possible.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...17.0 N... 79.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 2 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Stewart


$$
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