Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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cycloneye
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#5541 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:17 pm

TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY FOR WILMA. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D
RADAR DATA...AND FLIGHT LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT...INDICATE WINDS AT 850 MB OF ABOUT 120-125 KT IN
THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL. SINCE THESE WINDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...IT IS PROBABLY SAFE TO NOW
ASSUME THESE WINDS CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 100 KT AT THE OCEAN SURFACE.
IT IS NOT YET CLEAR IF THIS RESTRENGTHENING WAS SIMPLY DUE TO
REDUCTION OF FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ONCE THE EYEWALL EMERGED OVER
WATER...OR IF THE WINDS IN THE EYEWALL STRENGTHENED SOME TIME AFTER
REACHING THE ATLANTIC...PERHAPS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE GULF
STREAM. BOTH FACTORS LIKELY PLAYED A ROLE. THE INTENSITY
FORECASTS VALID AT 12 AND 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE.
NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK OR RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1830Z 28.1N 78.8W 100 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 30.3N 75.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 36.1N 68.9W 75 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 42.1N 61.6W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 26/1200Z 44.9N 55.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 27/1200Z 46.5N 44.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 28/1200Z 47.5N 36.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 29/1200Z 49.0N 25.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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#5542 Postby chris_fit » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:18 pm

Made it ok here in Palm Bay FL.. got way more wind than I expected, trees and branches down, some power lines. Still very windy here. Lots of flooding, more than Jeanne and Frances last year. Hope everyone is doing well.

Chris
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#5543 Postby krysof » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:19 pm

Brent wrote:
krysof wrote:unbelievable storm, what a legacy, and its not done yet

I have a question though, Will my area be really effected?


Looks that way. Lots of rain and wind tonight and tomorrow. Are you close to NYC or farther south?

I'm a bit south, close to the jersey shore.
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#5544 Postby danman » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:20 pm

:eek: indeed.
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#5545 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:22 pm

Checking in... just got my electricity back on after losing it this morning at around 8am.
It's been a very blustery day and despite the abundance of sunshine now, the winds have not subsided a bit. That front really amplified the windfield of Wilma all the way up here. Now that the winds have shifted to coming out of the north and nnw, I think they are even stronger since there is nothing to help block them before reaching us here on the island. Incredible waves!
Anyway, our winds only got to the 50's at the most with sustained winds more like between 30-35. Not nearly as bad as it could have been. Luckily she went as far south as she did.
Hopefully everyone faired well. We don't know how the grandfolks' place did in Bonita Springs yet. Thankfully they finally decided to evacuate up to Orlando last night after the whole family kept nagging them. I bet they are glad they did now!
Now we're looking forward to the beautiful fall weather being ushered in!
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#5546 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:25 pm

Image
Cant see the NE
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#5547 Postby ronibaida » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:37 pm

cjrciadt wrote:Image
Cant see the NE


where did you get this image from?
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#5548 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:37 pm

She still has a strong punch as the plane found 125kts at SE Quad.
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#5549 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:38 pm

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/
From here update every 15mins
Latest Recon supports 130mph, anyone here!!!!!1-
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#5550 Postby danman » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:42 pm

cjrciadt wrote:http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/
From here update every 15mins
Latest Recon supports 130mph, anyone here!!!!!1-


holy crappola thats some prettty crazy stuff man!!!! :eek:
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#5551 Postby WxGuy1 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:07 pm

cjrciadt wrote:http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/
From here update every 15mins
Latest Recon supports 130mph, anyone here!!!!!1-


That agrees with the 115-120mph in the last updated advisory. What do you want us to say?
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#5552 Postby WxGuy1 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:11 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:
cjrciadt wrote:http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/
From here update every 15mins
Latest Recon supports 130mph, anyone here!!!!!1-


That agrees with the 115-120mph in the last updated advisory. What do you want us to say?


Actually, they are flying at 850mb, so you apply a 20% reduction to the VORTEX ob of 125kt flight-level winds... 80%*125 = 100kts or 105-110mph.
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#5553 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:27 pm

WxGuy1 wrote: Actually, they are flying at 850mb, so you apply a 20% reduction to the VORTEX ob of 125kt flight-level winds... 80%*125 = 100kts or 105-110mph.


100 Kts = 115 MPH.
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#5554 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:37 pm

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
2100Z MON OCT 24 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED
BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. THIS
WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS EVENING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 77.4W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 32 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 90SE 75SW 40NW.
50 KT.......125NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 225SE 200SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 300SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 77.4W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 78.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.1N 72.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 85SE 60SW 30NW.
50 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 200SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 39.4N 65.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 85SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...225NE 250SE 225SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 43.1N 58.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 45.0N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 46.1N 42.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 47.5N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 51.5N 22.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 77.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#5555 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:38 pm

Image
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#5556 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:50 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...WILMA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM FLORIDA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE
IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED
BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. THIS
WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS EVENING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...
290 KM... NORTH OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 37 MPH...59 KM/HR...AND A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
WILMA COULD REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

STORM SURGE SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINES OF SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.0 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 37 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#5557 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:12 pm

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

WILMA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE PASSING OVER FLORIDA. AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 132 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 105 KT SURFACE
WINDS...PROVIDING THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE
HURRICANE ALSO CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW RACING
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 32 KT. WHEN WILMA TRANSFORMS INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT CERTAIN. IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO KEEP
FROM BECOMING TOO ENTANGLED WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR 24 HOURS OR MORE WHILE RUNNING
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. WILMA HAS BEEN RATHER RESISTANT
TODAY IN ALLOWING ITS INNER CORE TO BE DISRUPTED...AND IT COULD
MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND HOLD ON TO
HURRICANE STATUS WELL INTO TOMORROW. SHORTLY THEREAFTER IT SHOULD
MAKE THE TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL...BUT REGARDLESS OF WHEN THAT
DESIGNATION IS MADE...A LARGE AND STRONG CYCLONE WILL TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT FORECAST THE
EXTRATROPICAL STORM TO TURN MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 29.0N 77.4W 105 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 33.1N 72.6W 85 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 39.4N 65.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 43.1N 58.2W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 26/1800Z 45.0N 53.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 27/1800Z 46.1N 42.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 28/1800Z 47.5N 33.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 29/1800Z 51.5N 22.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#5558 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:19 pm

Wilma now has both the smallest and largest eyes of this year= 1mile and 85miles wide!!!!!
She is moving almost 40mph, more impressive than Hazel off the E coast?
Last edited by cjrciadt on Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#5559 Postby ronibaida » Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:20 pm

Who thinks that there will be another system form before the season is over??
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#5560 Postby SamSagnella » Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:20 pm

Am I correct to assume that the winds to the immediate right of the center are approximately 36mph stronger than the advisory intensity, or has the TPC already taken that into consideration?
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