Tropical Depression 25,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Tropical Depression 25,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:04 am

At 11 AM First Advisory.Post away about this TD.
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#2 Postby Scorpion » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:05 am

I am wondering if this will become another major hurricane. After all, it ends with an A, and every storm that ended in A became something(except Ophelia).
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#3 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:07 am

Whoa! Bit of a shock for being so soon! Come on Alpha!
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#4 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:07 am

TD and we are not even in November!!!!!!!! :eek: :eek: :cry: :cry:
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#5 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:07 am

Alpha is coming. Just wow.

You guys in the islands all I can say is good luck. After watching Wilma go from a Tropical Storm to Cat 5 in very short order, I would say all bets are off.

Good luck to everyone in it's path....
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#6 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:09 am

:eek:

WOW... I honestly didn't expect them to upgrade so soon with a major hurricane pounding the Yucatan.
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#7 Postby feederband » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:11 am

Humans to Mother Nature------- WE SURRENDER!!!
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:14 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE (AL252005) ON 20051022 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051022 1200 051023 0000 051023 1200 051024 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.8N 67.5W 16.8N 69.9W 18.1N 72.1W 20.0N 74.0W
BAMM 15.8N 67.5W 17.1N 69.9W 18.4N 71.8W 20.1N 73.8W
A98E 15.8N 67.5W 16.5N 70.0W 17.3N 72.2W 18.9N 74.2W
LBAR 15.8N 67.5W 16.9N 69.7W 18.5N 71.6W 20.5N 73.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051024 1200 051025 1200 051026 1200 051027 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 75.4W 33.8N 71.3W 43.7N 53.4W 37.4N 25.8W
BAMM 23.2N 75.3W 32.3N 72.0W 41.4N 56.2W 39.8N 29.0W
A98E 22.4N 74.8W 28.2N 70.9W 34.7N 59.6W 37.7N 37.4W
LBAR 23.5N 74.1W 37.9N 66.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 54KTS 51KTS 34KTS
DSHP 43KTS 45KTS 43KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 67.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 65.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 62.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Here is the header of the models that says TD25.
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#9 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:14 am

Scorpion wrote:I am wondering if this will become another major hurricane. After all, it ends with an A, and every storm that ended in A became something(except Ophelia).


I sure hope not. The first four greek letters end in 'a'!
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:15 am

GO ALPHA!!!!!!! :D
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#11 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:15 am

WindRunner wrote:
Scorpion wrote:I am wondering if this will become another major hurricane. After all, it ends with an A, and every storm that ended in A became something(except Ophelia).


I sure hope not. The first four greek letters end in 'a'!


:eek: :eek: :eek:
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#12 Postby Aquawind » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:16 am

feederband wrote:Humans to Mother Nature------- WE SURRENDER!!!


Exactly.. No Mas..

Paul
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#13 Postby dhweather » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:16 am

Come on ALPHA! 1933 needs to fall into 2nd place!!
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#14 Postby x-y-no » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:21 am

This thing will have to stay in the Caribbean for a while to have any hope of development. Wilma's outflow is generating way too much shear to the north, and should continue to do so for another day or two.

Hard to tell, but it looks like the center of circulation is probably up towards the north side of the convection, maybe around 17N 67W or so, maybe a tad west of that?
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#15 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:22 am

x-y-no wrote:This thing will have to stay in the Caribbean for a while to have any hope of development. Wilma's outflow is generating way too much shear to the north, and should continue to do so for another day or two.

Hard to tell, but it looks like the center of circulation is probably up towards the north side of the convection, maybe around 17N 67W or so, maybe a tad west of that?


That's OK... we just need 5 kts for ALPHA. :)
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#16 Postby TampaFl » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:27 am

WOW, what a year :crazyeyes:

Robert 8-)
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#17 Postby O Town » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:29 am

Well, well, well. Alpha around the corner, wow, and we still have November. Truley an amazing season. :eek:
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#18 Postby AZS » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:32 am

Image
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#19 Postby x-y-no » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:34 am

Noticed the models initialized well south of where I said ... they're probably right but I can't tell with so few frames of visible sat.
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#20 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:35 am

Where are the people saying the season was definately over after Vince... (and Stan... and Katrina... and Gert...)
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