Tropical Depression 25,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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bvigal
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#61 Postby bvigal » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:54 am

Yesterday reminded me of Dean in 2001, only Dean began to organize right over the BVI and reached TD status just offshore in the Atlantic. I can remember two big 20-foot limbs breaking off the trees in my yard, and about 5" of rain falling between sunup & sundown. I kept watching NWS products to see if there was any mention of our "rain blob". If someone had asked me to bet half a year's income on whether it was organizing, I wouldn't even have hesitated!

It's rather interesting to be in a tropical system while it is forming, and we kind of knew that yesterday. This year we've had a sampling of the energy which would later become Katrina and Rita. I've really gained a whole new respect for that (unproven?) element which confounds the models and forecasters, and seems to determine what will and what won't develop and persist into something strong. Perhaps it is a small but powerful clear air vortex at mid level, too small to show in any type of satellite view. Only coincidentally and rarely captured by a weather balloon, and then judged to be a malfunction. But I've every confidence there is some great seed of energy exisiting long before the standard criteria for a tropical low appears.

This no doubt makes me sound like some kind of nut :roll: I've grown up with tornados, and got quite good at knowing which of identical conditions would produce tornados, and which would not. Today I can walk by a window, glance outside, see a cloud about to produce a funnel, calmly walk to get my camera, and be outside right on time for it to form and take it's picture.

Maybe I can just feel it naturally, as some people experience aches and pains which can't be correlated simply to barometeric pressure. Or, as was being discussed in another thread, the way animals seem to know in advance, there must be something which can be sensed. To me, the weather is living, breathing, with an ethereal element similar to a human personality - probably because, despite all our advances in technology, we can never fully predict it nor understand all the intricacies of its behavior.
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#62 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:12 pm

well, I guess this will be alpha.
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#63 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:15 pm

cycloneye wrote:Image

Wow thru the center of Hispanola.


Poor Alpha dont' know what it has comming to it with that track...LOL
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#64 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:18 pm

looks like it should be a fidh after the bahamas. And may bring some surf to the southeast coast.
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#65 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:21 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:looks like it should be a fidh after the bahamas. And may bring some surf to the southeast coast.

After the Bahamas, Bermuda will have to watch it...
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#66 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:25 pm

Oh yes, How could I forgot about them. LOL Anyway, it looks it poses agreat threat to bermuda.
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#67 Postby AZS » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:27 pm

I think TD 25 will be named in the next few minutes or in the next hour........
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#68 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:30 pm

Will they have a 2pm advisory on this? Or will it be 5pm?
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#69 Postby milwaukeebrian » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:32 pm

They should have a 2PM advisory since there are watches out for Hispanola.
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#70 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:32 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:Will they have a 2pm advisory on this? Or will it be 5pm?


Yes... anytime there are watches or warnings for any land, they will have intermediate advisories.
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hmmm

#71 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:33 pm

Probably too early for a 2 PM advisory.



I'd look for 4:30 when we'll know for sure...
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#72 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:52 pm






TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25 ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 68.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 22.10.2005 16.2N 68.8W

00UTC 23.10.2005 17.5N 74.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.10.2005 16.2N 74.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.10.2005 16.9N 75.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.10.2005 16.5N 73.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.10.2005 16.7N 71.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.10.2005 17.4N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.10.2005 13.9N 77.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 26.10.2005 12.2N 78.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.10.2005 12.6N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 27.10.2005 12.3N 78.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.10.2005 13.3N 78.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 28.10.2005 13.8N 78.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


12z UKMET.

Jan you said at the main Wilma thread that UKMET didn't showed TD25 but here is the text. :)
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#73 Postby tampaflwx » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:57 pm

I hadn't really been tracking this storm much of recent, but...wow..it really appears that this system has grown considerably in the pats several hours and check out that deep convection! We could have Alpha very shortly..
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#74 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:02 pm

Another record is about to be broken...

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE NEARING TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...
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#75 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:03 pm

Yes at 5 PM.
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#76 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:08 pm

Are there any plans yet for sending RECON out to TD 25?
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#77 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:09 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Are there any plans yet for sending RECON out to TD 25?


Possible flight on Monday because it may threaten Bermuda, otherwise, no.
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#78 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:Yes at 5 PM.


. . . if not for the models in 30 minutes.
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#79 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:10 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Are there any plans yet for sending RECON out to TD 25?


When it's close to Bermuda.

A POSSIBLE FIX MISSION
AT 24/1800Z NEAR 26N 73W.
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#80 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:10 pm

ALPHA!!!

Louder!

ALPHA!!!

I can't hear you!

ALPHA!!!
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