Tropical Depression 25,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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quandary
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#41 Postby quandary » Sat Oct 22, 2005 9:57 am

It seems likely, and I said this with Wilma too... either it'll only manage to become a weak TS or it will probably blow up to become a major hurricane. Why? Because as has been shown multiple times this year, hurricanes that develop an inner core over favorable conditions have been bombing out. Of course, it might manage it to hurricane status without a true core, but in any case, once it has the core, watch out.
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cycloneye
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#42 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:04 am

Image

Wow thru the center of Hispanola.
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#43 Postby HurricaneGirl » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:06 am

Dr. Steve Lyons just referred to this system as becoming Alpha! :eek:
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#44 Postby SkeetoBite » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:07 am

Cuurently forecast by the NHC to become Alpha by 11pm EST tonight.
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#45 Postby HurricaneGirl » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:09 am

:eek: Holy Crap!! :eek:
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#46 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:11 am

HurricaneGirl wrote::eek: Holy Crap!! :eek:


History will be made as for the first time ever in a season the greek alphabet will be used.
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#47 Postby HurricaneGirl » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:14 am

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html
Visible of soon to be Alpha and Hurricane Wilma.
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#48 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:18 am

SkeetoBite wrote:Cuurently forecast by the NHC to become Alpha by 11pm EST tonight.


. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TREND
TOWARD INCREASED ORGANIZATION... MORE THAN LIKELY THE DEPRESSION
WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON.


Above is a part of discussion.

skeetobite it looks like at 5 pm it will be Alpha. :)
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#49 Postby SkeetoBite » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:22 am

Unbelievable. I hope everyone stays safe.
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#50 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:32 am

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/jua_N0Z_lp.shtml

San Juan long range loop shows clearly TD25.
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#51 Postby AZS » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:38 am

GFLD likes TD 25

Making it a Hurricane in 1 day


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#52 Postby HurricaneGirl » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:40 am

:eek: Un Believable! :eek:
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#53 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:43 am

:eek:
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#neversummer

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#54 Postby Gorky » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:43 am

It also brings Alpha to 150mph as it is absorbed by wilma, with a central pressure of 982mb :P Something very dodgy with this run :)
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#55 Postby gerrit » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:45 am

senorpepr wrote:
gerrit wrote:
quandary wrote:
dhweather wrote:Come on ALPHA! 1933 needs to fall into 2nd place!!


Effectively 1933 is already in second place, since it cannot match the number of hurricanes (record) or number of major hurricanes or number of cat 4s (record-tie) or number of Cat 5s (record by far). Nor can it match the number of TDs (25, win by 4).


Good! Now everybody looking for a record can be happy - as far as I'm concerned the season can end today..


The sobbering part is: we still have 39 days remaining in the season. That excludes any post-season activity.


I know...
Looking at this pic doesn't make me happy at all...:

Image
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fci
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#56 Postby fci » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:02 am

Is Alpha going to be Wilma's little BROTHER or SISTER????

Is it a Metrosexual????

:lol: :lol:
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#57 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:07 am

fci wrote:Is Alpha going to be Wilma's little BROTHER or SISTER????

Is it a Metrosexual????

:lol: :lol:

I wlll call it Alphie so a boy :wink:
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#58 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:08 am

fci wrote:Is Alpha going to be Wilma's little BROTHER or SISTER????

Is it a Metrosexual????

:lol: :lol:
I guess if you want to extrapolate the gender-flopping the standard list utilizes, Alpha will be "male" this year. Next year, however, Alpha (in the wild event we can't get a break) would be "female."
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#59 Postby bvigal » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:32 am

I think there were higher winds in BVI/VI than official measurements from STT or STX airports. Maria Hill station in St. Croix measured a gust at 3:18am this morning of 61.5mph! Elevation of the station is 300ft above sea level. Gusts of 38mph recorded yesterday by station in Virgin Gorda.

(1 minute) sustained winds between 25 and 30mph (at sea level) reported throughout the day yesterday by mariners here. These are people who sail every day and/or race often, and MUST know what winds are to keep from blowing out thousands of dollars worth of sails. They have years of experience knowing wind, know exactly what wind speeds their rigging can tolerate, how wind speeds in port relate to those out on the water, etc., so I believe they do not exaggerate, and are the next best thing to an anemometer!

At about 1000 ft on west side of a slope, I had frequent gusts of 40mph and a few near 50mph yesterday. (Potted palms in big heavy pots blew over.)

Today here on the hill, it is alternating between long periods of almost calm, interspersed with short periods of gusty winds, gusts about 30mph today, maybe a couple have been 35. BUT, the sun is was shining only a bit ago!!
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#60 Postby MzShell » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:39 am

I bet ya Beta will be born soon as well. I assume she will be a girl. Alpha=Alf/Beta=Betty?
Last edited by MzShell on Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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