Alpha,Comments,Sat Pics,Models thread

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fasterdisaster
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#81 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:12 pm

BUMP
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fasterdisaster
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#82 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:48 pm

Why has this thread just stopped?

He looks a little better.
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#83 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:48 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:Why has this thread just stopped?

He looks a little better.


Well there's a little thing called Wilma barrelling towards Florida.

:P
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#84 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:49 pm

Image

Convection is trying to make a comeback.
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#85 Postby WindRunner » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:50 pm

Much better, I'm thinking TS at 11.

Image
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#86 Postby El Nino » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:50 pm

It looks like Bahamas will be lucky, between Wilma and Alpha !
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#87 Postby O Town » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:12 pm

Whats up with ukmet and the gfdl?? I don't like the way that looks. Maybe because Wilma will be out of the picture before they have time to interact. Will be watching this one, even though Wilma is bearing down on FL.

Image
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#88 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:21 pm

Wilma and Alpha will merge at some time dont worry. I hope :wink:
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#89 Postby O Town » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:29 pm

I hope so too. It just doesn't look like it is moving fast enough to catch up with Wilma. It is forcasted to speed up and be absorbed by Wilma in about 36 hours. I hope it holds true. 8-)
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#90 Postby WindRunner » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:42 pm

For some reason, the 00Z run of SHIPS goes crazy with Alpha, probably because of the BAMD path.

187
WHXX01 KWBC 240019
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA (AL252005) ON 20051024 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051024 0000 051024 1200 051025 0000 051025 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.6N 72.9W 26.2N 72.3W 32.4N 68.3W 38.6N 60.9W
BAMM 21.6N 72.9W 26.1N 72.3W 32.6N 69.1W 39.8N 63.4W
A98E 21.6N 72.9W 25.3N 72.7W 30.9N 70.7W 37.3N 65.3W
LBAR 21.6N 72.9W 25.5N 72.5W 31.2N 70.2W 38.7N 64.3W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 43KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 43KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051026 0000 051027 0000 051028 0000 051029 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 40.3N 50.8W 29.0N 38.3W 24.1N 43.0W 26.1N 47.2W
BAMM 44.5N 56.7W 45.2N 40.0W 38.2N 23.0W 33.4N 13.3W
A98E 44.9N 56.4W 51.9N 28.1W 60.6N 8.5W 65.2N 22.8E
LBAR 45.1N 60.5W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 61KTS 71KTS 72KTS 54KTS
DSHP 61KTS 71KTS 72KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.6N LONCUR = 72.9W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 72.2W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 69.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



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#91 Postby NCHurricane » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:49 pm

Maybe the models are still tracking Alpha (or what was) after the merge between it and Wilma. Would that explain the change in some models and SHIPS?
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Weatherfreak000

hmmm...

#92 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:51 pm

Wilma is moving just too quickly it seems....perhaps a slingshot effect taking Alpha as a Cat 1 cane across Florida again is possible?



Sucks for poor Florida =/
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#93 Postby cajungal » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:02 pm

I thought for sure Alpha was going to be a fish. Now the models are going crazy again. I would not worry too much though. A significant cold front is lowering the temps along the gulf coast to the 60's for highs next week. With lows into the 50's. That should cool off the gulf waters a good bit.
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#94 Postby gilbert88 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:22 pm

cajungal wrote:I thought for sure Alpha was going to be a fish. Now the models are going crazy again. I would not worry too much though. A significant cold front is lowering the temps along the gulf coast to the 60's for highs next week. With lows into the 50's. That should cool off the gulf waters a good bit.


Uuuuh... it was not a fish from the start. It was heading for the D.R.
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