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SkeetoBite
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#41 Postby SkeetoBite » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:10 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wahoooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!! ALPHA ALPHA ALPAH 22!!! 2005 ROCKs!!!!


Say that 3 times... fast, and see what happens just before you say the year the third time...
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#42 Postby Beam » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:17 pm

SkeetoBite wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wahoooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!! ALPHA ALPHA ALPAH 22!!! 2005 ROCKs!!!!


Say that 3 times... fast, and see what happens just before you say the year the third time...


lol, "twenty-two-thousand five!"
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#43 Postby AZS » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:25 pm

GFDI is on crack !!!!!

Image
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#44 Postby WxGuy1 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:34 pm

AZS wrote:GFDI is on crack !!!!!


The GFDL brings Alpha to a Cat 4, but not because of deepening. As Alpha gets caught up in the strong southwest flow over the western Atlantic, it will accelerate and move very rapidly. Therefore, the model is forecasting Cat 4 winds over the southeastern quad of the storm, and <20kt winds (not even tropical depression force) over the northwestern quad. So, the max winds forecast have a very high contribution from translational speed.

EDIT: The 12z GFDL shows a forward speed of >45mph, leading to a differential speed of 90mph between the eastern and western parts of the storm (assuming storm would be tropical storm w/o any contribution from the translational velocity).
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#45 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:41 pm

In the next few days Wilma will be offering a "ride" to Alpha!
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#46 Postby Aqua Teen Hunger Force » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:43 pm

AZS wrote:GFDI is on crack !!!!!

Image


WTF?
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#47 Postby SkeetoBite » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:03 pm

Here's a collector's item:

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#48 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:29 pm

Yes Skeetobite that graphic is historic and one word incredible that we are witnessing this.
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#49 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:18 pm

Being this history that was made ever in the atlantic seasons as I can see and understandable this thread will not get to the almost 200 pages that the Wilma main thread has. :)
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#50 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:19 pm

cycloneye wrote:As I can see and understandable this thread will not get to the almost 200 pages that the Wilma main thread has. :)
We are too busy butchering the intensity forecast for Wilma to notice to one and only Alpha. :wink:
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#51 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:29 pm

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#52 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:42 pm

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA (AL252005) ON 20051023 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051023 0000 051023 1200 051024 0000 051024 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 69.6W 18.8N 71.7W 20.9N 73.4W 24.3N 74.0W
BAMM 17.3N 69.6W 19.1N 71.4W 21.4N 72.6W 25.4N 72.1W
A98E 17.3N 69.6W 18.7N 71.6W 20.2N 73.2W 23.0N 73.5W
LBAR 17.3N 69.6W 19.0N 71.4W 21.1N 72.7W 24.2N 73.1W
SHIP 40KTS 49KTS 57KTS 62KTS
DSHP 40KTS 39KTS 46KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051025 0000 051026 0000 051027 0000 051028 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.1N 72.5W 40.3N 60.6W 34.4N 41.3W 26.8N 42.9W
BAMM 31.4N 68.9W 40.9N 53.6W 30.9N 41.7W 24.5N 45.7W
A98E 30.1N 68.8W 40.7N 53.2W 37.8N 33.6W 24.4N 20.7W
LBAR 30.9N 71.5W 39.8N 50.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 66KTS 64KTS 47KTS 22KTS
DSHP 55KTS 54KTS 37KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 69.6W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 67.5W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 15.1N LONM24 = 65.0W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 45NM


A little more stronger at the 11 PM Advisorie 40 kts or 45 mph.
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#53 Postby Aqua Teen Hunger Force » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:10 pm

AZS wrote:GFDI is on crack !!!!!

Image


Can someone please explain to this noob - in plain english - what's going on with the GFDI run. Is it bad input or what?
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#54 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:13 pm

Aqua Teen Hunger Force wrote:
AZS wrote:GFDI is on crack !!!!!

Image


Can someone please explain to this noob - in plain english - what's going on with the GFDI run. Is it bad input or what?

It is unreasonably accounting for the incredible forward speed it is predicting. If you look at the graphic, the SE quad of the storm has 120 kt winds, but the NE has only like 35 kt winds. Its quite hilarious, and quite wrong.
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#55 Postby Aqua Teen Hunger Force » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:14 pm

How does one look at the graphic?

Sounds pretty interesting... Thanks by the way for explaing this.
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#56 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:22 pm

Image
Look at the left picture. You can see the strong winds on the Southeast Side of Alpha (the Orange colors) but notice the NE has only Blue. The center is actually just above that pressure marker to the left.
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#57 Postby inotherwords » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:26 pm

SkeetoBite wrote:Here's a collector's item:

Image


I have it up to $500 on eBay as we speak. :D
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#58 Postby inotherwords » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:28 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
Aqua Teen Hunger Force wrote:
AZS wrote:GFDI is on crack !!!!!

Image


Can someone please explain to this noob - in plain english - what's going on with the GFDI run. Is it bad input or what?

It is unreasonably accounting for the incredible forward speed it is predicting. If you look at the graphic, the SE quad of the storm has 120 kt winds, but the NE has only like 35 kt winds. Its quite hilarious, and quite wrong.


Question: is this the same underlying process that might be also facilitating an overestimation of Wilma's upcoming wind speed by this model?
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Aqua Teen Hunger Force

#59 Postby Aqua Teen Hunger Force » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:32 pm

jkt21787 wrote:Look at the left picture. You can see the strong winds on the Southeast Side of Alpha (the Orange colors) but notice the NE has only Blue. The center is actually just above that pressure marker to the left.


ha! I see it now. Much appreciated.
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#60 Postby curtadams » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:34 pm

SHIPS doesn't account for land decay and so isn't meaningful with a forecast track over Hispaniola. DSHIPS deserves to be in the headline with such a bizarre forecast from GFDL. That seems to be what the NHC used.
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