Alpha Advisories

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cycloneye
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Alpha Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:50 pm

The first advisorie for the greek name at 5 PM . :)



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA (AL252005) ON 20051022 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051022 1800 051023 0600 051023 1800 051024 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 68.5W 17.7N 70.8W 19.3N 72.9W 22.0N 74.5W
BAMM 16.5N 68.5W 18.0N 70.7W 19.7N 72.3W 22.4N 73.5W
A98E 16.5N 68.5W 18.1N 70.5W 19.4N 72.4W 21.3N 73.6W
LBAR 16.5N 68.5W 17.9N 70.3W 19.7N 71.9W 22.3N 73.2W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 51KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051024 1800 051025 1800 051026 1800 051027 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.6N 74.4W 38.9N 64.8W 37.7N 40.3W 28.1N 37.8W
BAMM 26.9N 72.9W 39.1N 63.4W 39.8N 40.8W 30.2N 33.3W
A98E 26.0N 72.2W 34.2N 63.9W 38.6N 46.5W 30.4N 31.4W
LBAR 26.5N 72.8W 42.1N 57.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 57KTS 57KTS 39KTS
DSHP 43KTS 46KTS 46KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 68.5W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 66.4W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 63.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:55 pm, edited 13 times in total.
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#2 Postby vacanechaser » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:59 pm

you beat me to it... good job cycloneye



Jesse V. Bass III
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Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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#3 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:16 pm

YAY 22 Named Systems :eek: , Good Job Atlantic, now the rest of it can go "dud"... :D
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#4 Postby Buck » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:40 pm

Wow!
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#5 Postby fci » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:57 pm

Yes, now that the Atlantic has made history with A L P H A and we are witness to the first season that used up all of the names; it has my permission to shut down for the season.....

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#6 Postby ChaserUK » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:54 pm

wow - really quite amazing this. Hello Alpha but I doubt this one will be the end to be honest. We got this far!
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#7 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:57 pm

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005
2100Z SAT OCT 22 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IF EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE BAHAMAS GOVERNMENT HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND
TURKS AND CAICOS.

A TROPICAL STROM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE
OF HAITI.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 68.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 68.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 68.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.3N 70.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.8N 71.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.6N 71.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 68.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
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#8 Postby Aqua Teen Hunger Force » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:57 pm

Seems to be late. KNABB is probably thinking about what to right for this historic discussion. :lol:
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#9 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:58 pm

000
WTNT45 KNHC 222053
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

A 1500Z TRMM COMPOSITE PASS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 16.3N 67.9W WITH A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BANDING FEATURE.
THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM ALL
THREE AGENCIES WERE 2.0/2.0...AND MOREOVER THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVED SINCE THAT TIME. AT 18Z...A SHIP REPORT FROM
C6FN4 HAD A 22 KNOT SOUTHWEST WIND ABOUT 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER WITH A 1007 MB PRESSURE. BASED UPON THE ABOVE INFORMATION
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ALPHA. ALPHA IS THE
TWENTY-SECOND NAMED STORM THIS SEASON AND OVERALL MAKES THE 2005
HURRICANE SEASON THE MOST ACTIVE ON RECORD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/13. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE STORM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-
TO MID-LAYER RIDGE. ALPHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN
RECURVE TO THE NORTHE AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WILMA AND
THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS ALPHA BEING
ABSORBED BY THE TROUGH IN 96 HOURS IF NOT SOONER.

ALPHA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. AFTER
WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOME BRIEF RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHWEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING OVER HISPANIOLA.


FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 17.0N 68.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 18.3N 70.2W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 23/1800Z 20.8N 71.8W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 24/0600Z 23.6N 71.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 28.5N 70.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 38.0N 61.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z...ABSORBED
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#10 Postby Aqua Teen Hunger Force » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:00 pm

:eek:

This is why Stacy Stewart is so much better than Knabb.
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#11 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:00 pm

Wow, the discussion was (for once) the first part to show up on the NHC page for me.
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#12 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:03 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...ALPHA BECOMES THE TWENTY-SECOND NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON AND
BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR THE MOST ACTIVE SEASON ON RECORD...

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IF EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS.

A TROPICAL STROM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE
OF HAITI.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES... 335 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
125 MILES... 200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ALPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD
BRING THE CENTER OF ALPHA TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 68.9 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
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#13 Postby wlfpack81 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:12 pm

Wow in the last 10yrs we've seen the #1 and #3 busiest seasons (1995).
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#14 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:14 pm

And #5 (2003)
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#15 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:15 pm

WOW :eek: :eek: :eek: This has been quite an amazing season.One for the ages.Now its a good possibility we will even see Beta .Not much chance of this season being equaled
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#16 Postby mettski » Sat Oct 22, 2005 6:11 pm

HOLY CRAP
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 6:50 pm

045
WTNT35 KNHC 222347
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...ALPHA APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES
OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ALPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD
BRING THE CENTER OF ALPHA TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATE TONIGHT
OR VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 69.5 W. MOVEMENT
...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 9:30 pm

154
WTNT25 KNHC 230229
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005
0300Z SUN OCT 23 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 70.1W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 70.1W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 69.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.9N 71.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 72.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 73.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 70.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#19 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 22, 2005 9:33 pm

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

HALF OF AN EYEWALL-LIKE FEATURE WAS VISIBLE ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR AS
ALPHA WAS MOVING OUT OF RANGE A COUPLE HOURS AGO...WITH SIMILAR
ROTATION BRIEFLY OBSERVED WITHIN THE VERY COLD TOPS OF ITS CORE
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE NO HIGHER
THAN 35 KT AT 00Z...THE RADAR SIGNATURE SUGGESTS THAT ALPHA COULD
HAVE A VERY SMALL CORE OF STRONGER WINDS AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS BEING RAISED TO 45 KT. A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
IN THE 6 OR SO HOURS BEFORE ALPHA REACHES HISPANIOLA. ALPHA'S SMALL
CIRCULATION SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINS OF
HISPANIOLA...AND IS IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE AS
IT CROSSES THE ISLAND. ASSUMING THAT IT SURVIVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC...ALPHA WILL FIND ITSELF IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS
IT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE WILMA IN ABOUT 36
HOURS...AND EVEN THOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY HAVE DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10. ALPHA IS NEARING THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE
WILMA APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT AND SLOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE ASSUMPTION
THAT THE SURFACE AND UPPER CIRCULATIONS MAY DECOUPLE DURING THE
INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

ALPHA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING EVENT
OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A STRONG LIKLIHOOD OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD-SLIDES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 17.7N 70.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 18.9N 71.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/0000Z 22.0N 72.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 73.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 25/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN CIRCULATION OF WILMA
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#20 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 22, 2005 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...ALPHA STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

ALPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE CENTER
OF ALPHA INLAND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW ARE NEAR 50
MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAPID WEAKENING OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 70.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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