Alpha Advisories

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hurricanefreak1988
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#21 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:05 am

I've been out all day, so I just got home to see this. I figured it would happen real soon when I saw TD Twenty-Five form earlier this morning. Greek letters. Wow. I knew it was going to happen since August, but just seeing the name Alpha is weird. It's amazing going into uncharted territory like this. What's scary, though, is that not only have we locked up a BLOWOUT win on our way to the 2005 hurricane season title, we've almost locked up what would be an unprecedented upset over the West-Pac! It's all just crazy.
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:47 am

Image

Tropical Storm Alpha Intermediate Advisory Number 3a


Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on October 23, 2005



...Alpha nearing Hispaniola...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire coastlines
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
and for the southeastern Bahamas.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 am EDT...0600z...the center of tropical storm Alpha was
located near latitude 17.8 north... longitude 70.5 west or about 60
miles... 95 km... south-southwest of Santo Domingo in the Dominican
Republic.

Alpha is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph ...22 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to take the center of Alpha inland
in the Dominican Republic within the next several hours. A turn to
the north is expected after the center makes landfall.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected prior to landfall and
rapid weakening over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola is
expected after landfall.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles
... 85 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb...29.47 inches.

The storm is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over much of Hispaniola...with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain. These rains could
produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 2 am EDT position...17.8 N... 70.5 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure... 998 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Franklin

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#23 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:21 am

Oh boy noone posted the 5 AM advisorie.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 230822
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...ALPHA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT 10
MILES... 15 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ALPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL...AND COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 71.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:43 am

970
WTNT35 KNHC 231137
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...ALPHA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF ALFA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 25 MILES... 35 KM...WEST-NORTHWST OF THE CITY OF BARAHONA IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ALPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND COULD DISSIPATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A METEOROLOGICAL STATION IN THE CITY OF BARAHONA
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...85 KM/HR AS THE CENTER OF
ALPHA MOVED NEARBY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...18.4 N... 71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#25 Postby WindRunner » Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:47 am

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF ALFA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.


Now when you can't even spell a letter . . .
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#26 Postby superfly » Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:51 am

WindRunner wrote:
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF ALFA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.


Now when you can't even spell a letter . . .


Well to be fair, Alfa is the NATO spelling for Alpha and is used by most other countries.
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#27 Postby WindRunner » Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:53 am

superfly wrote:
WindRunner wrote:
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF ALFA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.


Now when you can't even spell a letter . . .


Well to be fair, Alfa is the NATO spelling for Alpha and is used by most other countries.


Still, it made me think of the picture someone posted of Alfalfa a while ago.
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#28 Postby senorpepr » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:05 am

WindRunner wrote:
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF ALFA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.


Now when you can't even spell a letter . . .
For what it's worth... the program they use to create these bulletins (which is the same base program that the AWC and SPC also use) has a template for advisories. Very little is actually written by them. Regardless, once the bulletin is complete, it goes through the bulletin looking for typos. "Alpha" is not in the computer's dictionary. "Alfa", however, is in the dictionary because the SPC uses "Alfa" for their international sigmets. "Alfa" is the NATO spelling while the standard American phoentic and Greek spelling is "Alpha".
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#29 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:37 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005
1500Z SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 11 AM...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
COASTLINES OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 72.5W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 72.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 72.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 73.5W...ABSORBED BY WILMA
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 72.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA
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#30 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:37 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...ALPHA WEAKENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA...TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL CONTINUE...

AT 11 AM...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
COASTLINES OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
72.5 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF SANTO
DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 140 MILES...225
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH... 55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ALFA COULD REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...19.2 N... 72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#31 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:38 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH BANDING
FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOST LIKELY HAS
BECOME DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD BE ANYWHERE
WITHIN 75 N MI FROM THE POSITION GIVEN IN THE ADVISORY AND IS BASED
ON A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM HAITI. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE.
HISTORICALLY...IT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO
RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA.
BECAUSE THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE LOW
SHEAR...WE ARE SHOWING A VERY MODEST STRENGTHENING AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES BACK OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE WE DO NOT EXACTLY THE
LOCATION OF THE CENTER...BUT ALPHA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED AND ALPHA IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER
CIRCULATION OF WILMA IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 19.2N 72.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 21.0N 73.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 29.0N 73.5W 30 KT...ABSORBED BY WILMA
48HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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#32 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:39 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...ALPHA EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF HAITI LATER
TODAY...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. AT 2 PM
EDT...1800Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ALPHA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR. IF SURVIVES...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE BACK
OVER WATER LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ALFA COULD
REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER
WATER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...19.8 N... 72.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#33 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 3:41 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA NEARING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

AT 5 AM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR ESTIMATED 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT
40 MILES... 65 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALPHA COULD BRIEFLY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE
DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.S FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...
BRINGING TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...20.6 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#34 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 3:43 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE IF THERE WAS A SURFACE CIRCULATION OR NOT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION AFTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND I WAS
TEMPTED TO DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A NEW AREA OF CIRCULAR
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF HAITI NEAR THE POSSIBLE
CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. WE ARE
FOLLOWING THE CENTER OF THE CLOUD MASS WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS IN THE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF WILMA. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE CIRCULATION IS
BACK OVER WATER...A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AND ALPHA
COULD TEMPORARILY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...MOST
LIKELY THE DEPRESSION WILL INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND BECOME
ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF WILMA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND
THEN DISSIPATE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 20.6N 72.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 22.8N 73.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 26.0N 73.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 31.5N 71.0W 30 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED
48HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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#35 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:32 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...ALPHA ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC...

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM...
NORTH OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 21 MPH
...33 KM/HR...AND WILL BE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT THEN OUT INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.5 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART

$$








837
WTNT25 KNHC 240231
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005
0300Z MON OCT 24 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 72.9W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 72.9W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 72.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.1N 72.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.4N 70.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY WILMA

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 72.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART
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#36 Postby WindRunner » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:22 am

TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA RACING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE
BAHAMAS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT
230 MILES... 365 KM... NORTH OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED... IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK... ALPHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS
...AND THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY HURRICANE WILMA ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 73.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART





TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005
0900Z MON OCT 24 2005

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 73.1W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 73.1W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 73.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N 72.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 34.7N 70.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE WILMA

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 73.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

FORECASTER STEWART





TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/20. SHIP PBIG 05Z WITH A
WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND AND A PRESSURE OF 1006 MB LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE CENTER HELPED WITH DETERMINING THE POSITION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ALPHA FOR THIS ADVISORY. OTHER SURROUNDING SHIPS...
ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY... INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT ALPHA MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY
MUCH LARGER HURRICANE WILMA AFTER 24 HOURS. UNTIL MERGER WITH WILMA
OR DISSIPATION OCCURS... THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE NORTHWARD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SMALL
DEPRESSION GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF HURRICANE WILMA'S CIRCULATION.

LITTLE IF ANY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG OUTFLOW CREATED
BY MAJOR HURRICANE WILMA. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SHIPS MODEL...
WHICH BRINGS ALPHA UP TO 66 KT IN 84 HOURS... AND THE GFDL MODEL...
WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 85 KT IN 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 24.4N 73.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 28.5N 72.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 34.7N 70.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE WILMA
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#37 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2005 9:39 am

TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...ALPHA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS HURRICANE WILMA APPROACHES IT...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT
340 MILES... 545 KM...NORTH OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT
630 MILES...1010 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALPHA SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT IS
ABSORBED BY THE LARGER AND MORE POWERFUL HURRICANE WILMA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...25.9 N... 72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#38 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 24, 2005 9:41 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005
1500Z MON OCT 24 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 72.2W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 72.2W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 72.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.0N 70.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE WILMA

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 72.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#39 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 24, 2005 9:41 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

ALPHA CONTINUES TO SHOW CURVED LOW CLOUD LINES WITH A PATCH OF
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER. HOWEVER...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES DO NOT DEFINITIVELY SHOW A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF
HURRICANE WILMA. THIS ADVISORY WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT
DEPRESSION BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...
SAB...AND AFWA. HOWEVER...IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION DOES NOT BECOME
MORE APPARENT...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/17. ALPHA SHOULD ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HR BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY THE
LARGER AND MORE POWERFUL WILMA APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 25.9N 72.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 31.0N 70.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE WILMA
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#40 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:31 pm

I took out the sticky because the last advisorie will be written ayt 5 PM.Alpha had a short life but made history bigtime breaking the 1933 record for the most number of name systems and using the greek alpahbet for the first time ever.
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